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EXTREME EVENTS: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION

Objective

Often, extreme events provide representations of the future climate, but not all extremes are harbingers of the future. Thus, in order to be useful for adaptation in support to future projections, a causal link between events and human influence on climate must be established or refuted. This is why the “Extreme event attribution” field has recently developed. However, extreme event detection, attribution and projections studies currently face major limitations.
XAIDA will fill these gaps. Using new artificial intelligence techniques, and a strong two-way interaction with key stakeholders, it will (i) characterize, detect and attribute extreme events using a novel data-driven, impact-based approach, (ii) assess their underlying causal pathways and physical drivers using causal networks methods, and (iii) simulate high-intensity and as yet unseen events that are physically plausible in present and future climates.
To achieve this, XAIDA brings together teams of specialists in extreme event attribution, atmospheric dynamics, climate modelling, machine learning and causal inference, to:
● Understand the effect of climate change on a variety of impacting atmospheric phenomena currently poorly understood or quantified (cyclones, convective storms, long-lived anomalies, or summer compound events), both for past and future evolutions;
● Develop, in co-design with a community of key stakeholders, a novel, broader and impacts-based attribution and projection framework which extracts causal pathways of extremes;
● Develop storylines of events of unseen intensity, based on machine learning methods;
● Provide new tools for model assessment of causal pathways leading to extreme events and investigate the causes of disagreements between models and observations;
● Develop an interaction and communication platform with stakeholders with the ambition to improve training and education on climate change and impacts and to bring these developments to future operational climate services

Call for proposal

H2020-LC-CLA-2020-2
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

RIA - Research and Innovation action

Coordinator

CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRS
Address
Rue Michel Ange 3
75794 Paris
France
Activity type
Other
EU contribution
€ 1 052 518,75

Participants (14)

STICHTING VU
Netherlands
EU contribution
€ 699 175
Address
De Boelelaan 1105
1081 HV Amsterdam
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 471 665
Address
Wellington Square University Offices
OX1 2JD Oxford
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMI
Netherlands
EU contribution
€ 260 000
Address
Utrechtseweg 297
3731 GA De Bilt
Activity type
Research Organisations
MET OFFICE
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 260 000,50
Address
Fitzroy Road
EX1 3PB Exeter
Activity type
Public bodies (excluding Research Organisations and Secondary or Higher Education Establishments)
MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FORDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN EV
Germany
EU contribution
€ 314 997,50
Address
Hofgartenstrasse 8
80539 Munchen
Activity type
Research Organisations
UNIVERSITAT DE VALENCIA
Spain
EU contribution
€ 260 015
Address
Avenida Blasco Ibanez 13
46010 Valencia
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
UNIVERSITAET LEIPZIG
Germany
EU contribution
€ 190 290
Address
Ritterstrasse 26
04109 Leipzig
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
DEUTSCHES ZENTRUM FUR LUFT - UND RAUMFAHRT EV
Germany
EU contribution
€ 379 117,50
Address
Linder Hohe
51147 Koln
Activity type
Research Organisations
EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH
Switzerland
EU contribution
€ 814 768,75
Address
Raemistrasse 101
8092 Zuerich
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR UMWELTFORSCHUNG GMBH - UFZ
Germany
EU contribution
€ 430 300
Address
Permoserstrasse 15
04318 Leipzig
Activity type
Other
THE UNIVERSITY OF READING
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 454 951,25
Address
Whiteknights Campus Whiteknights House
RG6 6AH Reading
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL ORGANIZATION -UNESCO
France
EU contribution
€ 250 000
Address
Place De Fontenoy 7
75352 Paris
Activity type
Research Organisations
FOUNDATION POUR L'EDUCATION A LA SCIENCE DANS LE SILLAGE DE LA MAIN A LA PATE
France
EU contribution
€ 96 473,75
Address
43 Rue De Rennes
75006 Paris
Activity type
Other
STICHTING INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS RED CRESCENT CENTRE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
Netherlands
EU contribution
€ 64 968,75
Address
Anna Van Saksenlaan 50
2593 HT Den Haag
Activity type
Other