Periodic Reporting for period 1 - PolarRES (Polar Regions in the Earth System)
Reporting period: 2021-09-01 to 2023-02-28
There is growing scientific evidence that shows the Polar climates are both influenced by, and exert influence on, the global climate system. The climate of the Polar Regions is changing faster than other parts of the world because of local feedbacks and their response to regional or hemispheric-wide changes. An example of this is the Arctic warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the world, referred to as Arctic Amplification. This accelerated surface warming in the Arctic is expected to impact the world economy by almost €60 trillion by 2300, even if existing nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement (PA) are implemented. This can be reduced to €30 trillion under the PA target of 2ªC global warming. Changes in the Antarctic also have huge potential to impact humankind through rises in global sea level and via its role in the thermohaline and atmospheric circulations. The economic benefits alone make it imperative for European and global actors to enhance their efforts to reach the PA target. However, there is much that is still poorly understood about the interacting nature and feedback of polar processes and their consequences in both regional and global contexts. There is a critical knowledge gap on “teleconnections” between the Polar Regions and lower latitudes, the role that local-to-regional scale polar process play in them, and how they evolve in a changing climate system. Better understanding of these issues can have profound implications for people, policy, and businesses beyond the Polar Regions.
The overall objective of PolarRES is to improve understanding of local-regional scale processes that underlie ocean-atmosphere-ice (O-A-I) interactions in the Arctic and Antarctic, their response and influence on, a range of storylines of future changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation and the implications for society and the environment in the Polar Regions and beyond.
The overall objective of PolarRES is to improve understanding of local-regional scale processes that underlie ocean-atmosphere-ice (O-A-I) interactions in the Arctic and Antarctic, their response and influence on, a range of storylines of future changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation and the implications for society and the environment in the Polar Regions and beyond.
Analysis has been performed on the latest global climate projections produced for the recent IPCC reports that identified influences from the global climate system on polar regions. Different global influences, called ‘Storylines’, have been developed for the Arctic and Antarctic. Additional analysis has identified global climate model (GCM) projections for downscaling to higher resolutions by regional climate models (RCMs) that (1) represent these Storylines, (2) show a realistic representation of the present climate, and (3) have the necessary data available.
An experiment protocol has been developed for global model simulations necessary for our planned investigations of the influence exerted by the polar regions on the global climate system. Four global models have undergone extensive model development to enable them to follow this protocol. These models have been configured to follow this protocol and begun their simulations which will be analysed in the next reporting period.
An experiment protocol has been developed for the high-resolution polar climate projections which will be performed with regional climate models. In a community first, this was developed in partnership with impacts modellers to ensure that the high-resolution climate projections will be useful for impact assessments in the Arctic and Antarctic. Model developments necessary for the implementation of this protocol have been completed for all RCMs bare one. Simulations of the present-day climate are underway, and evaluation of these simulations is ongoing. Model evaluation requires both ground-based and satellite observations. PolarRES organised a workshop with numerous invited speakers from ESA and EUMETSAT which improved the knowledge exchange between climate modellers and remote sensing researchers who produce these satellite products for ESA and EUMETSAT. This has enabled PolarRES researchers to better use ESA and EUMETSAT datasets, not just in model evaluations but also in our studies on the processes that underly the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and sea-ice.
Using high-resolution regional climate models and state-of-the-art observations, such as MOSAiC and ESA data products, PolarRES has advanced our understanding of processes that underly atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions in both the Arctic and Antarctic. PolarRES has improved our understanding of aerosol-cloud interaction, atmosphere and ocean boundary layer and its coupling, sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, small-scale ocean mixing processes, and surface energy budget, and factors controlling snow/sea-ice albedo. This new knowledge has been widely disseminated through more than 20 international peer-reviewed journal publications, overcoming the project’s overall target, and presented at key scientific conferences. Moreover, an online knowledge transfer tool and a visual online storytelling tool have been produced, which will be part of the project legacy to ensure the full dissemination and exploitation of the project results.
An experiment protocol has been developed for global model simulations necessary for our planned investigations of the influence exerted by the polar regions on the global climate system. Four global models have undergone extensive model development to enable them to follow this protocol. These models have been configured to follow this protocol and begun their simulations which will be analysed in the next reporting period.
An experiment protocol has been developed for the high-resolution polar climate projections which will be performed with regional climate models. In a community first, this was developed in partnership with impacts modellers to ensure that the high-resolution climate projections will be useful for impact assessments in the Arctic and Antarctic. Model developments necessary for the implementation of this protocol have been completed for all RCMs bare one. Simulations of the present-day climate are underway, and evaluation of these simulations is ongoing. Model evaluation requires both ground-based and satellite observations. PolarRES organised a workshop with numerous invited speakers from ESA and EUMETSAT which improved the knowledge exchange between climate modellers and remote sensing researchers who produce these satellite products for ESA and EUMETSAT. This has enabled PolarRES researchers to better use ESA and EUMETSAT datasets, not just in model evaluations but also in our studies on the processes that underly the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and sea-ice.
Using high-resolution regional climate models and state-of-the-art observations, such as MOSAiC and ESA data products, PolarRES has advanced our understanding of processes that underly atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions in both the Arctic and Antarctic. PolarRES has improved our understanding of aerosol-cloud interaction, atmosphere and ocean boundary layer and its coupling, sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, small-scale ocean mixing processes, and surface energy budget, and factors controlling snow/sea-ice albedo. This new knowledge has been widely disseminated through more than 20 international peer-reviewed journal publications, overcoming the project’s overall target, and presented at key scientific conferences. Moreover, an online knowledge transfer tool and a visual online storytelling tool have been produced, which will be part of the project legacy to ensure the full dissemination and exploitation of the project results.
PolarRES will deliver projections of climate change in the Polar Regions in greater spatial detail and with more confidence than previous initiatives. This will be achieved using state of the art regional climate models and a novel methodology called the storylines approach. This work has already begun under a novel framework that brings together scientists with different expertise to ensure that these novel climate projections of polar climate change will be useful for a variety of stakeholders.
Many of our state-of-the-art regional climate models are also performing simulations over the Arctic and Antarctic domains for limited periods of time selected from the Year Of Polar Predictions Special Observing Periods. These simulations will resolve atmospheric phenomena such as polar cyclones and fronts in unprecedented detail.
PolarRES will continue to improve our understanding of interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice. PolarRES is explores processes that are most relevant for both the Arctic and Antarctic: aerosol-cloud interaction, atmosphere and ocean boundary layer and its coupling, sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, small-scale ocean mixing processes, and surface energy budget, and factors controlling snow/sea-ice albedo.
PolarRES will exploit novel modelling tools that improve the representation of the polar climate processes in global climate models. These modelling tools allow us to achieve a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of polar-lower latitude linkages.
The key exploitable results of PolarRES will be:
• better communication of uncertainty in future climate projections for the Arctic and Antarctic for assessments of climate change impacts. This will be done with the storylines of climate change that PolarRES has recently developed for the Arctic and Antarctic.
• a visual online storytelling tool that shares our new knowledge and scientific discoveries.
• policy-relevant and assessment reports describing our new knowledge on how climate change will impact permafrost, wildfires, marine ecosystems in the polar regions.
• high-resolution projections of climate change in the Polar Regions that will support future impact assessments in these regions.
Many of our state-of-the-art regional climate models are also performing simulations over the Arctic and Antarctic domains for limited periods of time selected from the Year Of Polar Predictions Special Observing Periods. These simulations will resolve atmospheric phenomena such as polar cyclones and fronts in unprecedented detail.
PolarRES will continue to improve our understanding of interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice. PolarRES is explores processes that are most relevant for both the Arctic and Antarctic: aerosol-cloud interaction, atmosphere and ocean boundary layer and its coupling, sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics, small-scale ocean mixing processes, and surface energy budget, and factors controlling snow/sea-ice albedo.
PolarRES will exploit novel modelling tools that improve the representation of the polar climate processes in global climate models. These modelling tools allow us to achieve a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of polar-lower latitude linkages.
The key exploitable results of PolarRES will be:
• better communication of uncertainty in future climate projections for the Arctic and Antarctic for assessments of climate change impacts. This will be done with the storylines of climate change that PolarRES has recently developed for the Arctic and Antarctic.
• a visual online storytelling tool that shares our new knowledge and scientific discoveries.
• policy-relevant and assessment reports describing our new knowledge on how climate change will impact permafrost, wildfires, marine ecosystems in the polar regions.
• high-resolution projections of climate change in the Polar Regions that will support future impact assessments in these regions.