Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CRiceS (Climate relevant interactions and feedbacks: the key role of sea ice and snow in the polar and global climate system)
Reporting period: 2021-09-01 to 2023-02-28
Climate and Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for projecting future climate change; however, these models have significant shortcomings regarding their descriptions of polar ocean-ice/snow-atmosphere interactions, limiting their effectiveness. The EU-funded CRiceS project will increase understanding of how rapid sea ice decline is interlinked with physical and chemical changes in the polar oceans and atmosphere. Consortium members will quantify the controlling chemical, biogeochemical and physical processes/interactions within the coupled ocean-ice/snow-atmosphere system through a comprehensive analysis of new and emerging in-situ and satellite observations. CRiceS will improve process, regional and climate models / ESMs to deliver improved quantification of feedback mechanisms within the Earth system.
Project activities during the first reporting period have focused heavily on model development, evaluation of model performance and analysis of shortcomings, and compilation of an extensive set of observations ranging from local in-situ process level to satellite observations and from targeted polar campaigns to integrated long term observations. CRiceS teams have developed methodologies to maximize utilization of observations as constraints for simulation ensembles, evaluation and validation data, or as a source of semi-empirical parameterizations or data-driven simulation approaches. These approaches have been developed for each project Core Theme: heat, mass and momentum exchanges (CT1), aerosols & clouds (CT2) and biogeochemical cycles/greenhouse gas exchanges (CT3), and CT4 which integrates our interdisciplinary understanding of ocean-ice-snow-atmosphere processes that operate together within the coupled OIA system. During the first 18 months, CRiceS has advanced the understanding of the physical, biological and chemical processes in polar and global systems, in atmosphere, sea ice and ocean. Atmospheric models have been expanded with new formulations of aerosol and cloud processes and chemical mechanisms. Biogeochemistry and related fluxes have been incorporated in several sea ice models, and the physical descriptions of sea ice itself have been revised and their limitations analysed.
CRiceS has developed mechanisms for identification and quantification of hazards, as well as analysis of impacts on human and natural systems. This method will deliver the information needed to understand how people and the environment will be impacted and to guide adaptation actions and decisions within the Arctic, Antarctic and across the globe. A specific part of the work is focusing on the Arctic to deliver a new assessment of impacts for biodiversity, fishing, seal habitats, ship navigation, and resource extraction. The Arctic case studies are performed via literature reviews and Arctic policy stakeholder interviews. The framework is currently tested against existing model data and observations, and will be applied to CRiceS future scenarios later in the project. CRiceS has integrated itself to processes within CMIP7 (towards IPCC AR7), AMAP, CLIVAR NORP, IASC working groups and many others, to ensure that our increased understanding of polar climate systems and their role in globally is transferred to EU and international policymakers and further EU research and innovation missions.