Periodic Reporting for period 2 - 4I-TRACTION (4I-TRACTION – Innovation, Investment, Infrastructure and sector Integration: TRAnsformative policies for a ClimaTe-neutral European UnION)
Reporting period: 2022-12-01 to 2024-09-30
To achieve climate neutrality by 2050, EU policy will have to be reoriented – from incremental towards structural change. As expressed in the European Green Deal, the task is not only to initiate the necessary transformation in the coming years, but also to enhance competitiveness, productivity, employment, and health. To mobilise the creative, financial and political resources to achieve the required degree of technological, economic and behavioural change, the EU also needs a governance framework that facilitates cross-sectoral policy integration and allows citizens, public and private stakeholders to participate in the process and to own the results.
The 4i-TRACTION project analyses what transformative climate policy could look like for the EU. It sets out from a stock-take of existing climate policies and their performance, analysing which factors contributed to the achievement of the EU’s 2020 climate targets, supported by an assessment of key climate policies and their implementation in seven Member States. On this basis, the project develops and assesses four policy avenues to describe how the current mix of EU climate and energy policies needs to evolve in the 2020s to set course for climate neutrality by 2050. This feeds into an effective governance framework for implementing the policy avenues, aligned with the EU’s long-term objective of climate-neutrality by 2050 as the EU’s contribution to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the implementation of the SDGs. In doing so, the project takes the realities of EU policymaking as its point of departure – the European Green Deal and its implementation in the Fit-for-55 and RePowerEU packages to the post-Covid-19 recovery efforts and the current geopolitical realities and energy crisis.
The analysis is structured around four cross-cutting core challenges, the four “I’s”:
- Fostering breakthrough Innovation,
- shifting Investment and finance,
- rolling out the Infrastructure for a climate-neutral and resilient economy, and
- Integrating solutions across sectors.
The structure of the project reflects that a systemic transformation will need to go beyond sectoral policy approaches. The analysis will also include the global context by incorporating insights and experiences from outside the EU and by examining how the EU’s efforts interact with those of other key countries. The analysis carried out in the project is thoroughly grounded in science, but also aligned with the EU's dynamic political environment. To receive input, provide feedback and validate conclusions, the project closely engages with stakeholders throughout its duration.
The 4i-TRACTION project analyses what transformative climate policy could look like for the EU. It sets out from a stock-take of existing climate policies and their performance, analysing which factors contributed to the achievement of the EU’s 2020 climate targets, supported by an assessment of key climate policies and their implementation in seven Member States. On this basis, the project develops and assesses four policy avenues to describe how the current mix of EU climate and energy policies needs to evolve in the 2020s to set course for climate neutrality by 2050. This feeds into an effective governance framework for implementing the policy avenues, aligned with the EU’s long-term objective of climate-neutrality by 2050 as the EU’s contribution to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the implementation of the SDGs. In doing so, the project takes the realities of EU policymaking as its point of departure – the European Green Deal and its implementation in the Fit-for-55 and RePowerEU packages to the post-Covid-19 recovery efforts and the current geopolitical realities and energy crisis.
The analysis is structured around four cross-cutting core challenges, the four “I’s”:
- Fostering breakthrough Innovation,
- shifting Investment and finance,
- rolling out the Infrastructure for a climate-neutral and resilient economy, and
- Integrating solutions across sectors.
The structure of the project reflects that a systemic transformation will need to go beyond sectoral policy approaches. The analysis will also include the global context by incorporating insights and experiences from outside the EU and by examining how the EU’s efforts interact with those of other key countries. The analysis carried out in the project is thoroughly grounded in science, but also aligned with the EU's dynamic political environment. To receive input, provide feedback and validate conclusions, the project closely engages with stakeholders throughout its duration.
The following project work was carried out in project from June 2021 to September 2024:
Work Package 1 laid the conceptual groundwork and established a quantitative framework, providing a taxonomy of transformative climate policies as well as a quantitative scenario of what the transformation to a climate-neutral economy entails for EU Member States. WP1 results on emission reduction pathways and phase-out dates for fossil fuels in the EU were submitted to the EC’s 2040 EU climate target consultation.
Work Package 2 contributed an ex-post assessment of EU climate policy, identifying drivers behind attaining the EU’s 2020 climate targets. The assessment included both quantitative and qualitative analysis at EU level, and seven national case studies from different MS. The case study results were published in an academic journal (Rienks and Miłobędzka, 2024).
Work Package 3 reviewed 18 international best practices of climate policies with transformative potential. Task 3.2 analysed in five discussion papers how the EU’s transformation to climate neutrality interacts with other countries, and how EU climate diplomacy can support efforts abroad.
Work Package 4 developed four policy avenues for how the EU could attain climate neutrality. Four core policy instruments were assessed, and the results were presented at COP28 in Dubai. Detailed descriptions are provided of the "transformation gaps" in each of the 4i-challenges, through an assessment of the policy avenues.
Work Package 5 analysed transformative climate governance in the EU, providing asessements of procedural climate governance and an inventory of key EU governance mechanisms. Existing governance mechanisms were assessed in terms of their transformative capacity, and policy recommendations were provided for governance reform.
Work Package 6 developed effective communication tools and disseminated project outputs, engaged stakeholders, and developed exploitation and communication activities. Among others, a “Community of Experts” was established as the project’s sounding board and a podcast was developed to disseminate project results.
Work Package 7 ensured effective project management, coordination and communication within the consortium and with external bodies, such as the project’s External Advisory Board and other relevant research projects.
Work Package 1 laid the conceptual groundwork and established a quantitative framework, providing a taxonomy of transformative climate policies as well as a quantitative scenario of what the transformation to a climate-neutral economy entails for EU Member States. WP1 results on emission reduction pathways and phase-out dates for fossil fuels in the EU were submitted to the EC’s 2040 EU climate target consultation.
Work Package 2 contributed an ex-post assessment of EU climate policy, identifying drivers behind attaining the EU’s 2020 climate targets. The assessment included both quantitative and qualitative analysis at EU level, and seven national case studies from different MS. The case study results were published in an academic journal (Rienks and Miłobędzka, 2024).
Work Package 3 reviewed 18 international best practices of climate policies with transformative potential. Task 3.2 analysed in five discussion papers how the EU’s transformation to climate neutrality interacts with other countries, and how EU climate diplomacy can support efforts abroad.
Work Package 4 developed four policy avenues for how the EU could attain climate neutrality. Four core policy instruments were assessed, and the results were presented at COP28 in Dubai. Detailed descriptions are provided of the "transformation gaps" in each of the 4i-challenges, through an assessment of the policy avenues.
Work Package 5 analysed transformative climate governance in the EU, providing asessements of procedural climate governance and an inventory of key EU governance mechanisms. Existing governance mechanisms were assessed in terms of their transformative capacity, and policy recommendations were provided for governance reform.
Work Package 6 developed effective communication tools and disseminated project outputs, engaged stakeholders, and developed exploitation and communication activities. Among others, a “Community of Experts” was established as the project’s sounding board and a podcast was developed to disseminate project results.
Work Package 7 ensured effective project management, coordination and communication within the consortium and with external bodies, such as the project’s External Advisory Board and other relevant research projects.
The underlying Theory of Change for the 4i-TRACTION project is that project activities and insights (communicated through outputs) will both inform policymakers directly, as well as indirectly by contributing to the political disccourses at EU level and in the Member States. At the same time, it seeks to advance the scientific understanding of transformative climate policies, their enablers and barriers, and conditions for success.
4i-TRACTION has engaged with policymakers and other stakeholders seeking to contribute insights from the project work to the further evolution of EU climate policy. Overall, project output has reached approximately 128,085 people – most of these through social media, but also through a suite of outreach activities including workshops, webinars, conferences, and meetings with policymakers. Project insights are condensed into ten succint policy briefs. The project also regularly identified opportunities for upcoming decision points in EU climate and energy policy for which 4i-TRACTION insights can be of relevance, e.g. the revision of the EU 2040 target, the National Energy and Climate Plans, the negotiations of the Fit for 55 and RePowerEU packages, as well as sector-specific processes. A particular point of interest will be to influence the early thinking and policy discourses on an eventual successor package to Fit for 55, determining the broad lines of EU climate policy beyond 2030.
4i-TRACTION has engaged with policymakers and other stakeholders seeking to contribute insights from the project work to the further evolution of EU climate policy. Overall, project output has reached approximately 128,085 people – most of these through social media, but also through a suite of outreach activities including workshops, webinars, conferences, and meetings with policymakers. Project insights are condensed into ten succint policy briefs. The project also regularly identified opportunities for upcoming decision points in EU climate and energy policy for which 4i-TRACTION insights can be of relevance, e.g. the revision of the EU 2040 target, the National Energy and Climate Plans, the negotiations of the Fit for 55 and RePowerEU packages, as well as sector-specific processes. A particular point of interest will be to influence the early thinking and policy discourses on an eventual successor package to Fit for 55, determining the broad lines of EU climate policy beyond 2030.