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Consistent representation of temporal variations of boundary forcings in reanalyses and seasonal forecasts

Project description

Enhanced C3S system for a reliable climate forecast

The most visible result of global warming is an increase in extreme weather events all over the world. Reliable monitoring and forecasting of climate developments have become more important than ever today. With this in mind, the EU-funded CONFESS project will support the societal need for an enhanced Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). A consistent representation of temporal variations of boundary forcings will allow re-analyses of climate prognostics and improvements of seasonal forecasts with implementation of such improved Earth observation data like land use, vegetation states and surface-emitted aerosols. C3S systems will be enhanced with annual changes regarding land use, adding satellite-derived and prognostic vegetation states or aerosol emissions. CONFESS will help societies in adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of extreme climate events.

Objective

A climate resilient society requires reliable monitoring and forecasting information of the climate trends, patterns and disturbances, both at global and regional scales. Through CONsistent representation of temporal variations of boundary Forcings in reanalysES and Seasonal forecasts, CONFESS will contribute to the emerging societal need for an enhanced Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) that can support adaptation and mitigation strategies facing increased frequency and intensity of climate extremes.

The aim of CONFESS is to improve the reliability and usability of C3S information in the land-atmosphere coupled system by exploiting new and improved Earth Observations data records of land-use, vegetation states and surface-emitted aerosols delivered across different Copernicus Services. CONFESS developments will be integrated consistently for use in future C3S systems, enhancing the service’s accuracy by representing annual changes of land use, adding satellite-derived and prognostic vegetation states along with aerosols emissions due to hazardous/extreme events such as volcanic eruptions and large-scale biomass burning (e.g. wildfires).

The added capacity to represent temporal variations and trends of these variables and the occurrence of hazardous/extreme events will be supported by a rapid uptake of new Earth Observations. The impact on the Earth system will be evaluated on the quality of global reanalysis as well as seasonal forecasts using state-of-the-art modelling systems. The infrastructure and knowledge developed within CONFESS will contribute to improve the C3S capabilities for reliable monitoring and forecasting with particular focus on extremes.

Call for proposal

H2020-SPACE-2018-2020

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Sub call

H2020-SPACE-2020

Coordinator

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
Net EU contribution
€ 565 000,00
Address
SHINFIELD PARK
RG2 9AX Reading
United Kingdom

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Region
South East (England) Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire Berkshire
Activity type
Research Organisations
Links
Total cost
€ 819 212,50

Participants (3)