Periodic Reporting for period 2 - UNTANGLED (Untangling the impacts of technological transformations, globalisation and demographic change to foster shared prosperity in Europe)
Reporting period: 2022-02-01 to 2024-01-31
European labour markets have, over the past two-three decades, been influenced by the three mega-trends of technological transformations, ageing and globalisation. The project UNTANGLED (Untangling the impacts of technological transformations, globalisation and demographic change to foster shared prosperity in Europe) aims to enhance the understanding of how these mega-trends have affected and challenged the ability to foster shared prosperity in Europe. The UNTANGLED project ha pursued three main goals:
(1) to provide detailed analyses at the macro-, regional-, sectoral-, and micro-level of the effects of these megatrends on a broad set of labour market outcomes and the impact on inequality;
(2) to develop comprehensive, model-based scenarios of the impact of these trends in the next decades, overall and for various subpopulations, sectors and regions;
(3) to disseminate broadly the evidence uncovered in the project and to develop policy recommendations fostering shared prosperity.
UNTANGLED has contributed to the H2020 work programme’s goal of promoting inclusive, evidence-based policy and informed public debates. In measuring effects and trends, we discern the changing demand for skills, employability, wage and income inequality, and mobility and migration patterns. We pay attention to demographic sub-groups by looking at effects by gender, age, skill level, and level of educational attainment.
We have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines quantitative and qualitative methods and adopts a cross-country perspective, covering the entire EU and accounting for developments in other continents. This helps to project the impact of shocks linked to globalisation. Our scenarios are firmly based on analytical results and created with two complementary models to provide robust results at the country-, sector and regional-level. To develop assumptions and ensure the relevance of scenarios, we have engaged in extensive consultations with the academic community and beyond, which complement and validate the economic and institutional analyses. These stakeholder consultations have been important in the development of concrete policy proposals aimed at shared prosperity. We have delivered research papers, research reports, an e-book and policy briefs. UNTANGLED’s results and lessons learned have been, and continue to be, disseminated to policy-makers, stakeholders and the public.
(1) to provide detailed analyses at the macro-, regional-, sectoral-, and micro-level of the effects of these megatrends on a broad set of labour market outcomes and the impact on inequality;
(2) to develop comprehensive, model-based scenarios of the impact of these trends in the next decades, overall and for various subpopulations, sectors and regions;
(3) to disseminate broadly the evidence uncovered in the project and to develop policy recommendations fostering shared prosperity.
UNTANGLED has contributed to the H2020 work programme’s goal of promoting inclusive, evidence-based policy and informed public debates. In measuring effects and trends, we discern the changing demand for skills, employability, wage and income inequality, and mobility and migration patterns. We pay attention to demographic sub-groups by looking at effects by gender, age, skill level, and level of educational attainment.
We have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines quantitative and qualitative methods and adopts a cross-country perspective, covering the entire EU and accounting for developments in other continents. This helps to project the impact of shocks linked to globalisation. Our scenarios are firmly based on analytical results and created with two complementary models to provide robust results at the country-, sector and regional-level. To develop assumptions and ensure the relevance of scenarios, we have engaged in extensive consultations with the academic community and beyond, which complement and validate the economic and institutional analyses. These stakeholder consultations have been important in the development of concrete policy proposals aimed at shared prosperity. We have delivered research papers, research reports, an e-book and policy briefs. UNTANGLED’s results and lessons learned have been, and continue to be, disseminated to policy-makers, stakeholders and the public.
The work performed within the UNTANGLED project falls broadly under three headings: a) project support infrastructure to support the research process, b) research output, and c) dissemination and stakeholder activities.
Project support infrastructure
The project support infrastructure includes the setup of the governance procedures of the project and management of this setup, including financial management, advisory board management, and management of communication with the European Commission. A Data Management Plan, which governs the use and storage of data throughout the project life cycle and beyond, has been drawn up. To ensure the envisaged impact of the project, a Communication, Dissemination, and Exploitation plan has been updated during the project duration.
Research output
During the project's duration, 42 deliverables were produced, 23 of which were in the core research WPs. Six policy briefs were written, graphically laid out, and accompanied by infographics. Of the 23 deliverables, 17 are ‘research papers’ (5 of which are already published) ready for scientific journal submission, while 6 are in the ‘research report’ format, meaning they contain new findings and research but are not (yet) in a format that is suitable for scientific publishing. The remainder of the deliverables are support deliverables (research support and dissemination support).
Dissemination and stakeholder activities
Dissemination and stakeholder activities have intensified throughout the project as more deliverables and results have become available.
The Project’s website has been regularly updated with studies, research report, policy briefs Newsletters, information about upcoming and past events, press releases and general news related to the project. The website has had 51,533 visitors. Social media accounts have also been set up on three social platforms Twitter/X, LinkedIn and Facebook and are active and continuously updated.
The project hosted two large conferences (mid-term and final), including 2 policy roundtables, five workshops, 4 webinars and 8 virtual cafes. Project members have presented results 40 times at external events (including in the US). Consortium members have been very active disseminating results.
The UNTANGLED project has interacting with other H2020 and Horizon Europe projects in workshops and conferences (and actively invited other projects to present at our workshops and conference) and via personal contact with the projects coordinators and researchers involved in neighbouring projects at the European and national levels.
Project support infrastructure
The project support infrastructure includes the setup of the governance procedures of the project and management of this setup, including financial management, advisory board management, and management of communication with the European Commission. A Data Management Plan, which governs the use and storage of data throughout the project life cycle and beyond, has been drawn up. To ensure the envisaged impact of the project, a Communication, Dissemination, and Exploitation plan has been updated during the project duration.
Research output
During the project's duration, 42 deliverables were produced, 23 of which were in the core research WPs. Six policy briefs were written, graphically laid out, and accompanied by infographics. Of the 23 deliverables, 17 are ‘research papers’ (5 of which are already published) ready for scientific journal submission, while 6 are in the ‘research report’ format, meaning they contain new findings and research but are not (yet) in a format that is suitable for scientific publishing. The remainder of the deliverables are support deliverables (research support and dissemination support).
Dissemination and stakeholder activities
Dissemination and stakeholder activities have intensified throughout the project as more deliverables and results have become available.
The Project’s website has been regularly updated with studies, research report, policy briefs Newsletters, information about upcoming and past events, press releases and general news related to the project. The website has had 51,533 visitors. Social media accounts have also been set up on three social platforms Twitter/X, LinkedIn and Facebook and are active and continuously updated.
The project hosted two large conferences (mid-term and final), including 2 policy roundtables, five workshops, 4 webinars and 8 virtual cafes. Project members have presented results 40 times at external events (including in the US). Consortium members have been very active disseminating results.
The UNTANGLED project has interacting with other H2020 and Horizon Europe projects in workshops and conferences (and actively invited other projects to present at our workshops and conference) and via personal contact with the projects coordinators and researchers involved in neighbouring projects at the European and national levels.
The UNTANGLED project has gone beyond the state-of-the-art in several areas related to the impact of the three megatrends on labour markets and inequality. This is signified most prominently by the fact that at this stage, 5 studies are published in academic journals, and several more are underway in the academic review process.
A number of studies have investigated the impact of technological transformation—notably the adoption of advanced robots in European industries and ICT technology—on the labour market. One (meta) result is that the impacts are very heterogeneous—among countries and within countries. Men with low educational attainment seem to have had a more difficult labour market, and a part of this is due to technology. Ageing has affected labour market supply less negatively than what was initially thought it would three decades ago. UNTANGLED results show that there is no sign – among EU countries – that investment in technological transformation has compensated for an increasingly ageing workforce. In general, no effect was found on the labour share of income, and over the past two decades, inequality has not, in general, increased in EU countries. Nevertheless, as shown in one study, advanced robotics has let to an increase in inequality in (market) outcomes (wages) in a few countries, but the study also showed that the built-in welfare state compensation policies have largely compensated for this increase in inequality. The impact at the regional level is not unambiguous. At the average level, regional divergence seems not to have increased, and factors related to globalisation have not had an impact on regional divergence. On the other hand, it does seem that ICT infrastructure and how regions are able to tap into different new ICT-related business models does have an impact on regional development.
Our extensive case studies on companies and industries have uncovered the diverse impact technology can have in the company and on workers and how they can be mitigated, threaten jobs, and help create additional employment.
Our dissemination infrastructure, centered around the UNTANGLED website and social media presence, has proven popular and active. The website is kept live and updated after the project and will be re-framed to highlight findings, videos, and news (rather than showcasing an on-going project).
A number of studies have investigated the impact of technological transformation—notably the adoption of advanced robots in European industries and ICT technology—on the labour market. One (meta) result is that the impacts are very heterogeneous—among countries and within countries. Men with low educational attainment seem to have had a more difficult labour market, and a part of this is due to technology. Ageing has affected labour market supply less negatively than what was initially thought it would three decades ago. UNTANGLED results show that there is no sign – among EU countries – that investment in technological transformation has compensated for an increasingly ageing workforce. In general, no effect was found on the labour share of income, and over the past two decades, inequality has not, in general, increased in EU countries. Nevertheless, as shown in one study, advanced robotics has let to an increase in inequality in (market) outcomes (wages) in a few countries, but the study also showed that the built-in welfare state compensation policies have largely compensated for this increase in inequality. The impact at the regional level is not unambiguous. At the average level, regional divergence seems not to have increased, and factors related to globalisation have not had an impact on regional divergence. On the other hand, it does seem that ICT infrastructure and how regions are able to tap into different new ICT-related business models does have an impact on regional development.
Our extensive case studies on companies and industries have uncovered the diverse impact technology can have in the company and on workers and how they can be mitigated, threaten jobs, and help create additional employment.
Our dissemination infrastructure, centered around the UNTANGLED website and social media presence, has proven popular and active. The website is kept live and updated after the project and will be re-framed to highlight findings, videos, and news (rather than showcasing an on-going project).