Consequences of conspiracy theories

Project Information

CONSPIRACY_FX

Grant agreement ID: 101018262

DOI

10.3030/101018262

EC signature date 28 June 2021

Start date 1 January 2022

End date 31 December 2027

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 2 499 185,00

EU contribution

€ 2 499 185,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITY OF KENT
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - CONSPIRACY_FX (Consequences of conspiracy theories)

Reporting period: 2023-07-01 to 2024-12-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The rise of conspiracy theories is often framed as a cause of various social ills such as declining public trust in democracy, the growing allure of populist and extremist politics, and the rejection of scientific consensus in favour of hearsay and fake news.

However, the extent to which conspiracy theories contribute to these problems is not clear. Despite hundreds of academic articles on this topic in recent years, and significant interest in conspiracy theories in both academic and non-academic circles, there has never been a systematic investigation of their consequences. In fact, we know very little about when, how, and why conspiracy theories affect the decisions and wellbeing of individuals, groups, and societies.

The project is named CONSPIRACY_FX reflecting its focus on the “FX” or “effects” of conspiracy theories. Its aim is to discover when and how conspiracy theories are influential. The project focuses on key contexts in which conspiracy theories have shown the most potential to shape people’s beliefs and behaviours: politics, vaccination, and climate change. We are also examining the impact of conspiracy theories on people’s interpersonal relationships (past, present, and future). We are also investigating the consequences of conspiracy theories for the persons who communicate them, focusing in particular on the reputational consequences of sharing conspiracy theories for politicians, scientists, and health professionals.

By the end of the project, we will have gained significant insights into the consequences of conspiracy theories for individuals, groups, and societies.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The research is being conducted across four sub-projects, and results have yielded important insights about the consequences of conspiracy theories.

Sub-project 1 investigates the consequences of political conspiracy theories. We have examined a large dataset of social media posts and found significant differences in the communication of conspiracy content across political parties in the USA. In surveys, we have found that conspiracy theories are associated with people’s intentions to engage in different political actions. In quasi-experimental and experimental research, we have found that exposure to political conspiracy theories influences people’s intentions to engage in political actions. In a multinational collaboration we have found that conspiracy beliefs are associated with people’s tendency to perceive themselves as victims of injustice. We have also found that conspiracy theories are rife in local politics and can affect people’s community engagement.

Sub-project 2 examines the effects of anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and other health-related conspiracy theories. We have found that “meta-conspiracies” (i.e. theories about people spreading conspiracy theories deliberately) are related to anti-vaccine conspiracy beliefs and vaccination intentions, but that exposure to meta-conspiracies does not improve vaccination intentions. We are also developing a “conspiracist worldview” scale to address shortcomings in the measurement of conspiracy belief in the literature.

Sub-project 3 examines the consequences of climate change conspiracy theories. In surveys and experiments, we have found that left-wing (e.g. alternative technologies are deliberately suppressed by oil companies) and right-wing (e.g. climate scientists fake their data) conspiracy theories about climate change are associated with different outcomes.

Sub-project 4 examines the reputational and relational consequences of sharing conspiracy theories. In experiments, we have found that many consequences are negative (e.g. reduced intentions to vote for a conspiracist politician). However, not all are negative (e.g. a conspiracist politician is more likely to be viewed as a “rogue” who can force change). We have also found that people understand the costs and benefits of sharing conspiracy theories in politics. In experimental and qualitative studies, we have found that people are less satisfied in past, present, and anticipated relationships with conspiracy believers.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Our research is the first systematic investigation of the consequences of conspiracy theories, therefore addressing one of the most pressing social issues of our time. It has already yielded insights that go beyond the state of the art (e.g. on positive and negative consequences of conspiracy theories, reputational and relational consequences) and we expect further significant insights by the end of the project. Specifically, a longitudinal survey we are currently conducting will provide a rich dataset on the consequences of conspiracy theories for politics, health, and the environment, and our ongoing experimental work across all sub-projects will allow us to make robust conclusions about the causal effects of conspiracy theories.

Please follow our website for updates: https://research.kent.ac.uk/conspiracy-fx/

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