Periodic Reporting for period 2 - BREAK (Break-Through Rocks)
Reporting period: 2023-07-01 to 2024-12-31
Deformation in Earth’s crust localizes onto faults that may rupture rapidly producing earthquakes or undergo slow aseismic slip. The detailed mechanisms that control the transition between the seismic and aseismic regimes and the onset of earthquakes remain unknown. These mechanisms control the geophysical processes preceding catastrophic failure, such as fracture development and strain localization on fault and in the rock volume surrounding them. The project BREAK provides quantitative laboratory observations of the full displacement field in rocks before and during fault slip and separate the aseismic and seismic components of it. We develop novel experimental techniques based primarily on simultaneous dynamic synchrotron X-ray microtomography imaging and acoustic emission data acquisition and analysis. The data reveal how slow and fast deformations develop and interact with each other in dry and wet crustal rocks under the stress, fluid pressure and temperature conditions at depths up to ten kilometres and characterize the production of fractures during earthquake nucleation and rupture propagation. We also develop methods to predict the time to failure from these signals using machine learning. We also compare the deformation microstructures produced in laboratory experiments with those of natural rock samples collected in California and Norway, where earthquakes have occurred. The overarching goal is therefore to progress toward a general model of the path to brittle failure in rocks by advancing knowledge of how fractures accumulate before and during both slow and fast earthquakes.