Skip to main content
Go to the home page of the European Commission (opens in new window)
English English
CORDIS - EU research results
CORDIS

Virus Spread in Networks

Project description

A new theory of non-Markovian epidemic processes

The Coronavirus crisis revealed a number of shortcomings within traditional epidemiology. For instance, it ignores the human contact graph and implicitly assumes a homogeneous population without specific graph structure. From a physics perspective, the two most important processes are how the virus jumps from A to B and how A and B make contact. While most studies on epidemics in networks implicitly assume Markovian type of spreading dynamics, for which mathematical theories are well developed, this is not the case with the COVID-19. In this context, the ERC-funded ViSioN project will develop the theory of non Markovian epidemic processes in order to tell how long a pandemic will last and when a peak will occur.

Objective

ViSioN presents my Network Science view on virus spread in networks, in which the duality between the virus transmission process and the contact graph is key.
The devastating Corona crisis reveals two major shortcomings in traditional epidemiology. First, it ignores the human contact graph and implicitly assumes a homogeneous population without specific graph structure. Second, most models for the virus spreading process relate to a Markovian setting, with exponential infection and curing times, leading to an exponential decay of the epidemic. Measurements, however, point to significantly different infection and curing time distributions. In addition, digital technology can help in constructing the contact graph and combined with medical testing, all infected can be detected, thus avoiding a second wave.
Building on my pioneering work on Markovian epidemics in networks, I will complement the recipe book of epidemic model ingredients with corresponding algorithms/software for next pandemic outbreaks. I will develop the theory of non-Markovian epidemic process on networks, a surprisingly missing element today, because non-Markovian theory is needed to tell, based on the characteristic infection and curing times of the virus, how long a pandemic will last and when the peak occurs. Next, I will combine all available measurement technologies to construct the best possible contact graph via temporal networking or adaptive networking. Finally, I will explore how accurately infections can be predicted under partial information of process and contact graph.
ViSioN’s outcomes will allow to predict, manage and control any epidemic in the best possible way. Moreover, as epidemics are part of the larger class of “local rule–global emergence” systems, my outcomes will be directly beneficial for the other members of this broad and abundant class, and find applications ranging from computer malware spread to human brain surgery.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.

You need to log in or register to use this function

Keywords

Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)

Programme(s)

Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.

Topic(s)

Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.

Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

ERC-ADG - Advanced Grant

See all projects funded under this funding scheme

Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) ERC-2020-ADG

See all projects funded under this call

Host institution

TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITEIT DELFT
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 2 499 962,00
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 2 499 962,00

Beneficiaries (1)

My booklet 0 0