The Origins of Elite Defections

Project Information

Elite Defections

Grant agreement ID: 101025822

DOI

10.3030/101025822

Project closed

EC signature date 30 April 2021

Start date 1 April 2022

End date 31 March 2025

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 271 732,80

EU contribution

€ 271 732,80

Coordinated by

THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
United Kingdom

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - Elite Defections (The Origins of Elite Defections)

Reporting period: 2024-04-01 to 2025-03-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

When and why do elites withdraw their support from authoritarian ruling coalitions? Elite exits are a puzzling phenomenon to study in comparative politics because they can often trigger regime transformations. Classic and contemporary comparative research shows that when elites exit a ruling coalition, regimes may come under stress. Elites who voluntarily exit may negotiate with moderate groups in the opposition, lead a regime transformation on their own, and/or craft movements that attract unhappy voters. To prevent this from happening, incumbents typically put in place a series of measures, including spoils, paths to career advancement, protection, but also surveillance, repression, and coup-proofing strategies.

Nonetheless, despite these systematic efforts, exits do at times happen. This project addressed when and why elite exits occur. In this way, this project advanced our understanding on the inner workings of authoritarian ruling coalitions, the drivers of internal transformations, and dynamics between opposing groups. It also provided new empirical data on the dynamics of ruling cohorts.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

This project has explored why some groups stop supporting those in power, how elite departures can lead to regime transformations, and when and why new opposition groups emerge. The researcher studied these themes relying on comparative case studies, using both archival research and fieldwork conducted in Europe and the Americas.

The project’s publications offer both structural and individual-level explanations for changes within elite cohorts. Published and upcoming articles will help us better understand how authoritarian coalitions work and why some elites choose to leave, while others do not. They will also shed light on which types of elite exits are most important for processes of democratization.

The Fellow actively shared her research throughout the project duration. She took part in major academic conferences, including APSA, LASA, IPSA, EWIS, and ALACIP, and participated in +45 academic events such as seminars, conferences, and guest lectures. She also joined +30 workshops with scholars and civil society members and participated in two LASA Dialogues.

Her work has been featured in respected academic blogs and platforms, including LASA Forum, PEX Network, Verfassungsblog, Fundación Carolina, Nueva Sociedad, and IDEA Internacional. She also had +40 media engagements through op-eds, interviews, commentary, and live discussions on platforms like X Spaces.

Her research has appeared or been cited in a wide range of international media outlets, including the BBC, Financial Times (UK), Foreign Policy (US), Reuters, O Globo (Brazil), Latinoamérica21, El Tiempo (Colombia), Folha de S. Paulo (Brazil), Clarín (Argentina), El Universo (Mexico), Confidencial (Nicaragua), Efecto Cocuyo (Venezuela), El País (Spain), La Tercera (Chile), La Nación (Argentina), among others. She has disseminated analyses in Spanish, English, and Portuguese.

At Oxford’s Latin American Centre, the Fellow taught modules in Andean Politics and Qualitative Methods for postgraduate students. She co-organised the “Rising Scholars Workshop on Comparative Politics” in Latin America 2025 at Nuffield College, Oxford.

The researcher has produced four publications:

- Jiménez, M & Aveledo, G. (2024). Whose Left, Whose Right? Analysing the Complexities of Right-Wing Politics in Venezuela. In Borges, A. et al (Eds.), The Recasting of the Latin American Right, Cambridge University Press.
- Jiménez, M., Vitale, S., Trak, J., Aveledo, G. (2022). La oscilante (in)capacidad de la oposición venezolana en la disputa del poder a nivel subnacional (2008-2022). Revista Elecciones, 21(23):125-160.
- Jiménez, M. & Castiglione, D. (2023). Reversing Authoritarianism in the EU: Transformative Politics and the Role of Opposition. In Bobek, M. et al (Eds.), Transition 2.0. Re-establishing Constitutional Democracy in an EU Member State, Nomos.
- Vitale, S., Trak, J., & Jiménez, M. (2024). Elecciones locales de 2021 en Venezuela: Un chavismo perdedor en teoría pero ganador en la práctica. In Alcántara M. et al (Eds.), Elecciones en América Latina: de pandemia y derrotas, Centro de Estudios Políticos y Constitucionales.

Three journal articles are under review, and three others are nearing submission. Two contributions to edited volumes are currently in progress.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

This project has had a substantial impact on the career development of the researcher in terms of skills, knowledge production, and employability. First, she expanded her empirical knowledge through comparative research across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. She also developed innovative approaches to working with limited or fragmented data, a challenge common when conducting research in authoritarian contexts. The project also enhanced her ability to design, manage, and deliver a multi-country study.

The project also significantly advanced her scholarly impact. It has so far resulted in 4 publications, including book chapters and journal articles. Through these publications, the researcher offers both new theories and empirical contributions to comparative politics scholarship. Specifically, research findings deepen our understanding of why elites choose to exit ruling coalitions, the strategic dilemmas faced by opposition forces under authoritarian rule, and how autocrats work to divide societies into polarized, irreconcilable camps. The project also helped the researcher widen her academic and non-academic networks. The researcher presented ongoing work at multiple academic conferences, and received various invitations by universities and other institutions in Europe and the Americas to present her work.

Project findings may also help scholars, practitioners and activists develop stronger frameworks for democratic resilience.

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