Periodic Reporting for period 1 - PlanetHealth (From human to planetary health: Global land-use impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic)
Reporting period: 2021-10-01 to 2023-09-30
The COVID-19 pandemic, stemming from a natural disease, represents an unprecedented global crisis, amplifying discussions on sustainability and planetary health. Land-use changes and forest loss exacerbate biodiversity loss, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil degradation, with far-reaching health implications. The increasing human-nature interaction at forest margins heightens the risk of new pandemics. Protecting the world’s remaining natural forests thus becomes increasingly valuable as a strategy to safeguard human well-being and health. To inform conservation strategies, PlanetHealth investigated the links between health, global shocks, and forest loss. Amid the pandemic, measures to curb the virus have mixed effects on agriculture, altering incentives for deforestation through illness-related productivity shocks (epidemiological channel), economic uncertainties driving forest expansion, and global demand shocks for agricultural products (economic channel). Additionally, the crisis may encourage anti-environmental policies and illegal logging (government-induced channel).
PlanetHealth’s primary goal was to quantify and spatialize the impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic on forest losses from a global to a local scale. This project encompassed six interconnected research objectives aligned with corresponding Work Packages (WPs) and their associated deliverables. It sought to establish a comprehensive methodology for evaluating various socio-economic and political channels affected by the COVID-19 crisis, employing advanced econometric shift-share designs. These objectives aligned with the following WPs: Depict the global forest dynamics (WP1), develop spatially disaggregated ex-ante susceptibility maps (WP2), create COVID-19-related exposure matrices (WP3), estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on forest dynamics (WP4), spatialize the COVID-19 impacts across forest landscapes (WP5), analyze the labor-market channels of the COVID-19 effects on deforestation (WP6).
Overall, the project presented strong evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic increased tropical deforestation rates. These effects are primarily driven by labor-market shifts from industry to agriculture. Furthermore, the project showed how economic and political shocks caused deforestation and forest fragmentation depending on the underlying local agricultural incentives. Strategies to mitigate the Global shocks can include public-private partnerships to reduce farmers' vulnerability, but should be accompanied by credible enforcement mechanisms.
PlanetHealth’s primary goal was to quantify and spatialize the impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic on forest losses from a global to a local scale. This project encompassed six interconnected research objectives aligned with corresponding Work Packages (WPs) and their associated deliverables. It sought to establish a comprehensive methodology for evaluating various socio-economic and political channels affected by the COVID-19 crisis, employing advanced econometric shift-share designs. These objectives aligned with the following WPs: Depict the global forest dynamics (WP1), develop spatially disaggregated ex-ante susceptibility maps (WP2), create COVID-19-related exposure matrices (WP3), estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on forest dynamics (WP4), spatialize the COVID-19 impacts across forest landscapes (WP5), analyze the labor-market channels of the COVID-19 effects on deforestation (WP6).
Overall, the project presented strong evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic increased tropical deforestation rates. These effects are primarily driven by labor-market shifts from industry to agriculture. Furthermore, the project showed how economic and political shocks caused deforestation and forest fragmentation depending on the underlying local agricultural incentives. Strategies to mitigate the Global shocks can include public-private partnerships to reduce farmers' vulnerability, but should be accompanied by credible enforcement mechanisms.
PlanetHealth produced global and regional databases on yearly deforestation and developed forest fragmentation outcomes at different spatial scales (e.g. grids and administrative boundaries). Related results have been published as open-access data on public repositories (WP1). Susceptibility maps have been developed to reflect the ex-ante COVID-19 infection risk for the Indonesian peninsula. The research used a spatial Bayesian modeling approach based on exogenous airport network connections, population density data, and travel distance calculations. This research has been published in a high-rank peer-reviewed journal (WP2). The associated data has been published on public open-access repositories. Next, COVID-19-related exposure matrices have been developed based on novel shift-share IV approaches that reflect labor-market shocks linked to the COVID-19 pandemic (WP3).
The estimation of the global impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic turned out to be inconsistent (WP4). Following the proposed contingency plan in the PlanetHealth proposal, WP4 was then divided into multiple alternative research objectives. The global impact analysis then analyzed economic and political shocks, providing insights into COVID-19-like impacts on deforestation. First, the effects of administrative splits on land use and deforestation in Indonesia were analyzed. Results show how strategic disinvestment temporarily reduces deforestation during crisis and provide insights into the vulnerability of local administrations facing agricultural expansion incentives. Second, PlanetHealth analyzed the effects of the oil palm boom in Southeast Asia on forest fragmentation dynamics. The results show how higher commodity prices strongly affect forest (de-)fragmentation in times of commodity price fluctuations. Third, PlanetHealth analyzed the effects of a public disclosure policy in Brazil on the shifted sourcing patterns of international agricultural traders. The research shows that public pressure can mitigate the detrimental effects of increasing expansion pressure, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of WP4 cumulated into three working papers, each accessible on open-access pre-publishing servers.
The premature termination of the project after 22 months curtailed some of the deliverables. The analysis of the global impacts (WP4) scheduled for the months 18-24 remains in progress. The spatialization (WP5) of the global impacts on deforestation, scheduled for the months 25-27, could not be commenced. The analysis of the labor-market channels of the COVID-19 effects at a subnational level, scheduled for the months 30-36, is in progress (WP6) and first results are available. Estimates strongly indicate that COVID-19-related labor market shocks have led to a significant increase in forest losses. This effect is mainly driven by shifts in the labor market structures of the service (including tourism) and agricultural sectors. Results are causally identified, robust, and economically relevant and are expected to be published in a high-ranking journal.
The estimation of the global impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic turned out to be inconsistent (WP4). Following the proposed contingency plan in the PlanetHealth proposal, WP4 was then divided into multiple alternative research objectives. The global impact analysis then analyzed economic and political shocks, providing insights into COVID-19-like impacts on deforestation. First, the effects of administrative splits on land use and deforestation in Indonesia were analyzed. Results show how strategic disinvestment temporarily reduces deforestation during crisis and provide insights into the vulnerability of local administrations facing agricultural expansion incentives. Second, PlanetHealth analyzed the effects of the oil palm boom in Southeast Asia on forest fragmentation dynamics. The results show how higher commodity prices strongly affect forest (de-)fragmentation in times of commodity price fluctuations. Third, PlanetHealth analyzed the effects of a public disclosure policy in Brazil on the shifted sourcing patterns of international agricultural traders. The research shows that public pressure can mitigate the detrimental effects of increasing expansion pressure, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of WP4 cumulated into three working papers, each accessible on open-access pre-publishing servers.
The premature termination of the project after 22 months curtailed some of the deliverables. The analysis of the global impacts (WP4) scheduled for the months 18-24 remains in progress. The spatialization (WP5) of the global impacts on deforestation, scheduled for the months 25-27, could not be commenced. The analysis of the labor-market channels of the COVID-19 effects at a subnational level, scheduled for the months 30-36, is in progress (WP6) and first results are available. Estimates strongly indicate that COVID-19-related labor market shocks have led to a significant increase in forest losses. This effect is mainly driven by shifts in the labor market structures of the service (including tourism) and agricultural sectors. Results are causally identified, robust, and economically relevant and are expected to be published in a high-ranking journal.
PlanetHealth introduced a new perspective to the environmental economics science by investigating the effects of a health crisis on the environment. Researchers have so far investigated the economic and political causes of deforestation and the impacts of forest loss on human health. Yet, the feedback mechanisms between the two processes, and more specifically, how damages to human health shape decisions to clear forests, had received relatively little attention. PlanetHealth’s research has shown that human adaptation strategies to the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated economic and political shocks, has led to a significant increase in forest losses. The project thereby showcases the environmental feedback mechanism of global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic.