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Politicians under Radical Uncertainty: How Uncertain Phenomena Influence Political Elites' Behavior

Project description

How political elites respond to uncertainty

Political elites - like ministers, parliamentarians and local politicians - exercise their power to produce desired outcomes. When trying to do so, they often face uncertain phenomena (like the pandemic). Uncertainty can be resolvable, which means it disappears with more information. But it can also be radical, being characterised by manifold unknowns, ambiguity and vagueness. The EU-funded RADIUNCE project will shed light on how political elites respond to the challenges and opportunities of different types of uncertain phenomena - from COVID-19 to migration. It will explore political elites' behavioural responses to these phenomena. For instance, do they avoid uncertainty, use 'heuristics' or display other behavioural responses? The project will answer this question by developing a new theoretical model of how political elites respond to different types of uncertain phenomena (radical or resolvable).

Objective

"Political elites-political representatives who can take binding decisions, e.g. ministers, parliamentarians, local politicians-face numerous radically uncertain phenomena, from Covid-19 to the long-term effects of Brexit. Radical uncertainty is characterized by manifold unknowns, ambiguity and vagueness, and it differs fundamentally from resolvable uncertainty, those situations in which it is possible to assign probabilities to outcomes, like the electoral consequences of welfare retrenchment. RADIUNCE will explore how these phenomena influence political elites' behavior. Do they ""avoid"" uncertainty, as some did with the coronavirus; use rules of thumb, ""heuristics"", e.g. comparing Covid-19 to the flu; or display other behavioral responses? Answering this is urgent: different responses have different outcomes that may impact how representative democracies function and how effective they are at solving problems. For example, avoiding a virus may cost lives, while using heuristics may result in faulty courses of action.

RADIUNCE's aim is to develop a theoretical model of how political elites respond to both radically and resolvably uncertain phenomena. We will focus on four countries with different institutional opportunities and constraints for responding to uncertainty: Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States, 1996-2021. The model will be multidisciplinary, integrating insights from political science, behavioral economics, decision theory, psychology and public administration. We will collect new, unique comparative data from politicians through an innovative combination of automated text analysis and survey experiments. Taking a multimethods approach, we will integrate quantitative data with qualitative methods (process tracing, Qualitative Comparative Analysis, interviews). The new model will explain how political elites respond to the challenges and opportunities in our face-pace world from digitalization to Covid-19 to migration."

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Topic(s)

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HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) ERC-2021-COG

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Host institution

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 1 995 424,00
Address
HEIDELBERGLAAN 8
3584 CS Utrecht
Netherlands

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 1 995 424,00

Beneficiaries (1)

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