Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ORIG_STATE (Colonization, Early Institutions and the Origin of State Capacity and Democratization)
Reporting period: 2022-11-01 to 2025-04-30
My research project proposes studying the origin of state capacity, democracy and political dynasties using the colonial conquest of Latin America as a natural experiment. Much of the recent work on comparative politics and development uses large historical events as fruitful experimentation laboratories. However, the colonial experience looks more similar to a "bundle treatment" than a single treatment. It is difficult to disentangle the role of differences in legal origin from the influences of human capital, etc. To try to overcome this problem, past empirical approaches use a variety of methods like case studies, panel data, country-fixed effects, and instrumental variables. I will try to move one step further in this debate by considering the initial years of the Spanish colonization of Latin America as a natural experiment.
Moreover, I also analyze the characteristics of leaders to understand the democratization process and conflicts. The influence of political leaders on economic and social outcomes in various institutional contexts is widely documented. Gender, education, and cognitive ability are some key traits of national political leaders that matter. However, masculinity --- a key biological trait influencing personality, behavior, and decision-making --- has not been thoroughly examined. To cast light on this question, we analyze which characteristics of leaders can impact the way in which they rule the country
Moreover, I also analyze the characteristics of leaders to understand the democratization process and conflicts. The influence of political leaders on economic and social outcomes in various institutional contexts is widely documented. Gender, education, and cognitive ability are some key traits of national political leaders that matter. However, masculinity --- a key biological trait influencing personality, behavior, and decision-making --- has not been thoroughly examined. To cast light on this question, we analyze which characteristics of leaders can impact the way in which they rule the country
1)The construction of the dataset on early institutions in Latin America together with the construction of leaders' characteristics is one of the first important achievements of this project. A large part of the time in the early years of the project has been devoted to constructing this impressive dataset which is now unique, and that will allow us to advance in the research of understanding better the role of institutions in the process of development and conflict.
The colonization period of The Americas, and the biographical information on the first “leaders” that arrived there provide what is probably a unique opportunity to advance in the debate on the role of institutions in the explanation of development, conflict and institutional development of countries.
2)The construction of the dataset on the local political elites from 1500 to today is the second important dataset we constructed in this project. This is the first time that we have a dataset on the local elites, with the names and surnames and geographical location. This will be the first time that information on elites and its evolution will have been used for economic research.
3) We construct a new dataset on leader characteristics that capture a leader’s Charisma and leadership capacity. The influence of political leaders on economic and social outcomes in various institutional contexts is widely documented. Gender, education, and cognitive ability are some key traits of national political leaders that matter. However, masculinity --- a key biological trait influencing personality, behavior, and decision-making --- has not been thoroughly examined. We collect facial images of 2,100 leaders over the past 150 years from 184 countries and employ Neural Network computer vision models to measure facial masculinity, a well-established proxy for masculine and dominant personality traits.
4) We develop a new methodology to have rea-time data on economic variables like poverty and inequality.
The colonization period of The Americas, and the biographical information on the first “leaders” that arrived there provide what is probably a unique opportunity to advance in the debate on the role of institutions in the explanation of development, conflict and institutional development of countries.
2)The construction of the dataset on the local political elites from 1500 to today is the second important dataset we constructed in this project. This is the first time that we have a dataset on the local elites, with the names and surnames and geographical location. This will be the first time that information on elites and its evolution will have been used for economic research.
3) We construct a new dataset on leader characteristics that capture a leader’s Charisma and leadership capacity. The influence of political leaders on economic and social outcomes in various institutional contexts is widely documented. Gender, education, and cognitive ability are some key traits of national political leaders that matter. However, masculinity --- a key biological trait influencing personality, behavior, and decision-making --- has not been thoroughly examined. We collect facial images of 2,100 leaders over the past 150 years from 184 countries and employ Neural Network computer vision models to measure facial masculinity, a well-established proxy for masculine and dominant personality traits.
4) We develop a new methodology to have rea-time data on economic variables like poverty and inequality.
1)One of the key findings is that whether a conqueror was a member of the educated elite explains differences in outcomes. The entire analysis exploits only within-country variation, including looking at spatially contiguous areas that had different conquerors in the same country. We explore different mechanisms and find that durable investments in the organization of the state may have been an important source of persistence.
2) Political leaders' masculinity exhibits an increasing trend globally during the decades preceding World War I, as well as in recent decades. We provide an empirical application on the importance of this characteristic by analyzing its link with interstate wars. Our analysis reveals that greater differences in facial masculinity between leaders leads to a lower likelihood of interstate conflict, supporting the dominance theory of the alpha male. Moreover, we observe a greater propensity for military and trade disputes between two leaders displaying high levels of masculinity --- two alpha males. Overall, the findings extend the concept of the alpha male dominance hierarchy from the animal kingdom to the domain of political leaders and interstate conflicts, casting novel light on the effect of leaders' personality traits on international relations.
2) Political leaders' masculinity exhibits an increasing trend globally during the decades preceding World War I, as well as in recent decades. We provide an empirical application on the importance of this characteristic by analyzing its link with interstate wars. Our analysis reveals that greater differences in facial masculinity between leaders leads to a lower likelihood of interstate conflict, supporting the dominance theory of the alpha male. Moreover, we observe a greater propensity for military and trade disputes between two leaders displaying high levels of masculinity --- two alpha males. Overall, the findings extend the concept of the alpha male dominance hierarchy from the animal kingdom to the domain of political leaders and interstate conflicts, casting novel light on the effect of leaders' personality traits on international relations.