Developing circular pathways for a EU low-carbon transition

Project Information

CircEUlar

Grant agreement ID: 101056810

DOI

10.3030/101056810

EC signature date 4 May 2022

Start date 1 September 2022

End date 31 August 2026

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

€ 4 937 622,25

EU contribution

€ 4 937 621,50

Coordinated by

INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSE
Austria

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - CircEUlar (Developing circular pathways for a EU low-carbon transition)

Reporting period: 2024-03-01 to 2025-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The overarching aim of the CircEUlar project is to advance scientific and policy understanding of circular economy strategies in the context of climate change mitigation. The inter-disciplinary project team, with the support of policy, industry partners and other stakeholders, develops and applies new empirically-grounded modelling approaches for quantitatively analysing material stocks and flows, and the inter-dependencies between energy, materials and GHG emissions. Material stocks in CircEUlar cover buildings, infrastructure, machinery, products, and devices. New insights on circular economy potentials and impacts are integrated into EU and global modelling frameworks for analysing pathways to net-zero GHG emissions.
CircEUlar has six specific objectives:
- Co-design achievable, desirable and transparent circular economy strategies with policy, industry and civil society stakeholders.
- Assess economy-wide circularity and GHG impacts of material stocks and flows in Europe through improved and extended modelling tools based on open-science principles.
- Generate and evaluate empirical evidence of circular economy practices in both the provision and consumption of goods and services as a basis for improving modelling tools.
- Analyse physical supply chain and economic value chain interdependencies and policy levers by linking industrial ecology models of material stocks and flows with integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation.
- Assess the potential contribution of different circular economy strategies and their systemic interactions to net-zero GHG emission pathways by mid-century.
- Provide robust insights for national, EU and global policy processes on the impacts and potential of the circular economy for climate change mitigation.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The foundation for assessing the potential of circular economy strategies towards net-zero GHG emissions are high quality datasets. CircEUlar researchers have published several journal articles including the compilation of a spatially resolved 200+ million European buildings dataset (EUBUCCO), a mapping of road infrastructure and associated material stocks, analysis of the linkage between buildings and mobility via urban form as a key determinant of energy and material use. Methodological development to align different methods is under way, including Material Flow Analysis and Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis, and Integrated Assessment Models.
Evidence is gathered on impactful circular economy-based strategies. In the Focus Area of Digitalisation this includes provenance systems for sorting, buildings information systems and 3D-printing. Related to Mobility, material inventories of the rolling stock are gathered. For buildings, the repurposing of fossil fuel infrastructure (e.g. district heating systems) and the potential for waste sorting by households are assessed.
Qualitative biographical interviews with households were conducted and narrative descriptions on the reasons behind their engagement with circular consumption practices in the areas of digitalisation (e.g. second hand platforms), mobility (e.g. shared mobility), and buildings and household services (e.g. space commoning) were collected from participants. Insights from these interviews form the basis for a pan-European survey of circular consumptions practices.
A first step towards the development of circular economy-driven net-zero emission pathways, a set of narratives has been developed by CircEUlar researchers. Based on input gathered in a stakeholder workshop, the narratives will undergo revisions and will be turned into quantitative pathways. At a second stakeholder workshop, feedback on these quantitative pathways will be gathered before finalizing them by the end of the CircEUlar project.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

CircEUlar will advance existing global modelling tools for climate change mitigation to better capture circular economy strategies and policies and their contribution to reaching net-zero GHG emissions in Europe. Circular economy-driven net-zero pathways using a suite of linked modelling and analytical tools are under development. Model inter-linkages across industrial ecology and integrated assessment methods are supported by new empirical analysis of circular provision and consumption of goods and services in three focus areas.
CircEUlar resorts to data-driven Artificial Intelligence techniques, with a view to analysing and quantifying potential interdependencies between mobility and building and household services. The analysis captures possible trade-offs and/or synergies between the different dimensions, and evidencing how specific circular economy strategies could bring about cross-sectoral benefits and increase impacts for reducing economy-wide GHG emissions.
Real-world evidence of firm strategies, business models, and market activity across different industrial value chains provides insight into the circular provision of goods and services. CircEUlar explores the potential for digital applications to improve the speed, ease, efficiency, coverage, and transparency of provenance systems for tracking material flows through supply chains, and their applicability in the circular economy. Material embodied in vehicles, batteries and transport infrastructure is assessed, as well as total vehicle stocks required in novel circular economy paradigms, such as shared urban mobility. CircEUlar also examines circular practices in dwelling construction and renovation including as a result of investment decisions, location choices, and supply chain availability.
CircEUlar breaks new ground in social science research for climate action by developing and deploying cutting-edge conceptual, methodological and analytical tools. CircEUlar will extend existing research oncircular consumption practices by examining the extent to which different circular behaviours and practices are likely to be accepted across Europe.