Periodic Reporting for period 1 - BlueAdapt (Reducing climate based health risks in blue environments: Adapting to the climate change impacts on coastal pathogens)
Reporting period: 2022-10-01 to 2024-03-31
BlueAdapt will examine how coastal pathogens may be impacted by climate change, and how this in turn could have negative consequences on health. At first, we aim to examine the contextual factors and drivers at play, these include an understanding of climate hazards that could affect pathogens in coastal zones such as increases in water temperature or changing rainfall patterns. In addition, interactions with other stressors such as harmful algal blooms resulting from aquatic pollution or antimicrobial resistance are also considered.
Experiments will be conducted by subjecting selected bacteria and viruses to climate stress and associated factors in laboratory settings. Computer models will then be developed to predict how the water flow and transport dynamics in estuaries and coastal zones are expected to be affected by climate change. By integrating the information from the experiments into the computer simulations we can predict changes in pathogen survival. In multiple case study locations in Europe we will be conducting field work to understand the current pathogen dynamics as well as the various coastal water uses.
All of this work will be underpinned by an understanding of the current trends, such as in upstream dynamics including urbanisation and land-use practices in the river basins, and expected developments in technology, policy and legislation. At the same time, we aim to propose a highly integrated approach in the understanding of health that goes beyond current One Health approaches. BlueAdapt intends to provide policy support on climate change adaptation for coastal zones. Immediate gains are expected in view of providing tools for improving current alert systems for predicting bathing water quality status.
Experiments will be conducted by subjecting selected bacteria and viruses to climate stress and associated factors in laboratory settings. Computer models will then be developed to predict how the water flow and transport dynamics in estuaries and coastal zones are expected to be affected by climate change. By integrating the information from the experiments into the computer simulations we can predict changes in pathogen survival. In multiple case study locations in Europe we will be conducting field work to understand the current pathogen dynamics as well as the various coastal water uses.
All of this work will be underpinned by an understanding of the current trends, such as in upstream dynamics including urbanisation and land-use practices in the river basins, and expected developments in technology, policy and legislation. At the same time, we aim to propose a highly integrated approach in the understanding of health that goes beyond current One Health approaches. BlueAdapt intends to provide policy support on climate change adaptation for coastal zones. Immediate gains are expected in view of providing tools for improving current alert systems for predicting bathing water quality status.
The generic system characteristics have been studied in detail, revealing the strong interconnectedness of the many processes as play. The role of climate change, environmental pollution, antimicrobial resistance and social processes and their impacts on both pathogens and on host health status have been studied. We conclude that the strong interconnectedness that emerges needs to be better addressed in future health impact assessments.
Current trends in the scientific, social, technology and policy domains with respect to coastal pathogens have been identified and mapped. When proposing adaptation interventions these trends need to be accounted for, as they will significantly influence the solution space. Tailored climate data for the case study sites has been made available for all of the case studies and dedicated state-of-the-art climate modelling is underway.
Laboratory experiments that establish how climate related stressors (temperature, salinity, pH, turbidity, UV) affect pathogen behaviour in interaction with other pressures (harmful algal blooms, antimicrobial resistance) are being developed and conducted. Modelling and simulation tools are being developed and refined in order to predict pathogen transport, survival and abundance in estuaries and coastal zones.
Field work in the case study sites is revealing insights on multiple aspects. These include current pathogen presence and dynamics, validation of transport simulations, understanding of beach uses (e.g. recreational use) and impact of early warning systems, catchment characteristics (location of treatment plants and combined sewer overflow, land uses in local coastal settings) fisheries and biodiversity.
Current trends in the scientific, social, technology and policy domains with respect to coastal pathogens have been identified and mapped. When proposing adaptation interventions these trends need to be accounted for, as they will significantly influence the solution space. Tailored climate data for the case study sites has been made available for all of the case studies and dedicated state-of-the-art climate modelling is underway.
Laboratory experiments that establish how climate related stressors (temperature, salinity, pH, turbidity, UV) affect pathogen behaviour in interaction with other pressures (harmful algal blooms, antimicrobial resistance) are being developed and conducted. Modelling and simulation tools are being developed and refined in order to predict pathogen transport, survival and abundance in estuaries and coastal zones.
Field work in the case study sites is revealing insights on multiple aspects. These include current pathogen presence and dynamics, validation of transport simulations, understanding of beach uses (e.g. recreational use) and impact of early warning systems, catchment characteristics (location of treatment plants and combined sewer overflow, land uses in local coastal settings) fisheries and biodiversity.
An in depth-literature review suggests to better account for interconnectedness of system components when applying integrated approaches such as in One Health. A proposed framework highlights the need to develop health strategies addressing both the risk factors as well as health promotion for improving population resilience. This would support more robust public health strategies that simultaneously address climate change, pollution, antimicrobial resistance, ageing populations, emerging infectious diseases as well as chronic diseases and mental health.
The microbiological experiments reveal new insights into the fate of bacterial pathogens at the freshwater – coastal transition zone, with E. coli in raw sewage surviving better in freshwater and decaying more rapidly with increasing salinity. Conversely, E. coli within treated effluent survive less well at low salinity but survive better at high salinity compared to E. coli in raw sewage. This may have important implications for the relative risk posed by raw and untreated sewage (e.g. from combined sewer overflows) in terms of E. coli survival. In addition, experimental methods for the detection of viable viruses in wastewater have been optimised for adenovirus, enterovirus, hepatitis-A, influenza A virus, respiratory syncytial virus and rotavirus.
Historical water and shellfish quality data have been combined with GIS-based approaches and linear mixed effects models to obtain relationships between catchment-level weather patterns and E. coli densities. So far, two comprehensive fine scale three-dimensional Delft3D models, one for the Conwy estuary, UK and one representing conceptual estuarine systems have been built to produce and study key fine-scale estuarine processes such as currents (including density currents) and turbulent mixing. These hydrodynamic processes provide the basis for pathogen distribution simulations.
The case studies are creating significant impacts through active engagement with diverse stakeholders, including national authorities, water boards, municipalities, local communities, and citizens. This multi-disciplinary collaboration has facilitated the integration of various perspectives and expertise, enhancing the relevance and applicability of the environmental management tools being tested.
At the EU level, various interventions have taken place to foster early interactions with agents responsible for strategy, research, policy and legislation.
The microbiological experiments reveal new insights into the fate of bacterial pathogens at the freshwater – coastal transition zone, with E. coli in raw sewage surviving better in freshwater and decaying more rapidly with increasing salinity. Conversely, E. coli within treated effluent survive less well at low salinity but survive better at high salinity compared to E. coli in raw sewage. This may have important implications for the relative risk posed by raw and untreated sewage (e.g. from combined sewer overflows) in terms of E. coli survival. In addition, experimental methods for the detection of viable viruses in wastewater have been optimised for adenovirus, enterovirus, hepatitis-A, influenza A virus, respiratory syncytial virus and rotavirus.
Historical water and shellfish quality data have been combined with GIS-based approaches and linear mixed effects models to obtain relationships between catchment-level weather patterns and E. coli densities. So far, two comprehensive fine scale three-dimensional Delft3D models, one for the Conwy estuary, UK and one representing conceptual estuarine systems have been built to produce and study key fine-scale estuarine processes such as currents (including density currents) and turbulent mixing. These hydrodynamic processes provide the basis for pathogen distribution simulations.
The case studies are creating significant impacts through active engagement with diverse stakeholders, including national authorities, water boards, municipalities, local communities, and citizens. This multi-disciplinary collaboration has facilitated the integration of various perspectives and expertise, enhancing the relevance and applicability of the environmental management tools being tested.
At the EU level, various interventions have taken place to foster early interactions with agents responsible for strategy, research, policy and legislation.