Periodic Reporting for period 2 - BlueAdapt (Reducing climate based health risks in blue environments: Adapting to the climate change impacts on coastal pathogens)
Reporting period: 2024-04-01 to 2025-09-30
BlueAdapt examines how coastal pathogens are impacted by climate change, and the consequences this may have for human health. At first, we establish a wide set of drivers as well as a review of the how climate hazards may affect pathogens in coastal zones due to direct impacts such as changes in water temperature or indirectly, e.g. due to changes in rainfall patterns. This is underpinned by a solid understanding of the expected climate signals in coastal areas that obtained through both a compilation and comparison of existing models as well as by dedicated climate earth systems modelling.
In multiple case study locations in Europe we conduct field work to understand the current pathogen dynamics along such river-estuary-coastal gradients. Laboratory methods are developed and experiments devised that subject target bacteria and viruses to the range of climate stressors obtained from the climate modelling. Experiments then analyse pathogen survival as a function of the modified environmental conditions (e.g. pH, water temperature, salinity).
Computer models are developed in order to simulate the flow, transport and water quality dynamics in estuaries and coastal zones. By integrating the information from the laboratory experiments (survival functions) with scenarios of weather patterns we can predict expected changes in pathogen survival along the river-estuary-coast continuum for current and future climates.
The work takes into account trends in upstream dynamics including urbanisation and land-use practices in the river basins, and expected developments in technology, policy and legislation. We propose a highly integrated approach to the understanding of health that goes beyond current One Health approaches.
Through the combination of these activities BlueAdapt informs water quality management and climate change adaptation for coastal zones. The project provides a basis for the development of tools for early warning and alert systems for pathogenic coastal risk.
In multiple case study locations in Europe we conduct field work to understand the current pathogen dynamics along such river-estuary-coastal gradients. Laboratory methods are developed and experiments devised that subject target bacteria and viruses to the range of climate stressors obtained from the climate modelling. Experiments then analyse pathogen survival as a function of the modified environmental conditions (e.g. pH, water temperature, salinity).
Computer models are developed in order to simulate the flow, transport and water quality dynamics in estuaries and coastal zones. By integrating the information from the laboratory experiments (survival functions) with scenarios of weather patterns we can predict expected changes in pathogen survival along the river-estuary-coast continuum for current and future climates.
The work takes into account trends in upstream dynamics including urbanisation and land-use practices in the river basins, and expected developments in technology, policy and legislation. We propose a highly integrated approach to the understanding of health that goes beyond current One Health approaches.
Through the combination of these activities BlueAdapt informs water quality management and climate change adaptation for coastal zones. The project provides a basis for the development of tools for early warning and alert systems for pathogenic coastal risk.
The generic system characteristics of how climate change impacts pathogens and associated health outcomes were studied in detail. The review revealed how climate change and environmental pollution interact and amplify impacts. We demonstrated how better accounting for the underlying host health status significantly widens the scope for interventions. Dedicated state-of-the-art earth systems climate modelling was conducted. Sensitivity testing on such a model has allowed us to isolate how alternate land use scenarios differentially impact the coastal zones in the European domain.
Laboratory protocols that establish how climate related stressors (temperature, salinity, pH, turbidity, UV) affect pathogen survival have been developed. Experiments reveal how changing temperature, salinity, pH and UV radiation affect survival of selected bacteria and viruses. High resolution coastal zone simulations then integrate the survival functions from the laboratory experiments to predict how the dynamic environmental conditions on the river-estuary-coast continuum affect spatial-temporal pathogen transport and concentration. Field work is revealing insights into pathogen presence and dynamics, presence of antimicrobial resistance, and has proven the value of using artificial plastic substrates for detecting strains with antimicrobial resistance in natural waters.
Ways on how to improve warning apps for recreational water users are being devised and insights are gained on how the provision of information affects awareness and behaviour changes in recreational water use. New forms of co-production knowledge between scientists and local agents are being tested through the development of a pilot Living Lab on One Health.
Laboratory protocols that establish how climate related stressors (temperature, salinity, pH, turbidity, UV) affect pathogen survival have been developed. Experiments reveal how changing temperature, salinity, pH and UV radiation affect survival of selected bacteria and viruses. High resolution coastal zone simulations then integrate the survival functions from the laboratory experiments to predict how the dynamic environmental conditions on the river-estuary-coast continuum affect spatial-temporal pathogen transport and concentration. Field work is revealing insights into pathogen presence and dynamics, presence of antimicrobial resistance, and has proven the value of using artificial plastic substrates for detecting strains with antimicrobial resistance in natural waters.
Ways on how to improve warning apps for recreational water users are being devised and insights are gained on how the provision of information affects awareness and behaviour changes in recreational water use. New forms of co-production knowledge between scientists and local agents are being tested through the development of a pilot Living Lab on One Health.
Our findings suggest the need for new methods that better account for interconnectedness of system components One Health contexts. A proposed framework based on systems thinking shows how multiple hazards and drivers interact with each other and how they not only affect exposure risk but also host health status and host susceptibility.
The microbiological experiments reveal new insights into the fate of bacterial pathogens at the freshwater – coastal transition zone, with quantifications of survival as a function of temperature, pH, UV, salinity ranges. The experimental work also highlights the effect of strain variability as the conditions the bacteria have experienced before being subjected to the stressors. Experimental methods for the detection of viable viruses in wastewater have been developed for adenovirus, enterovirus, hepatitis-A, influenza A virus, respiratory syncytial virus and rotavirus and dependency on climate stressors have been experimentally assessed resulting in specific survival functions. The project has showcased how the survival functions can be integrated into how high-resolution coastal zone transport and water quality models that can then be exploited to: i) simulate scenarios under modified weather patterns, ii) conduct impact assessment of how diffuse and point sources can lead to contamination of bathing waters, iii) predict real-time pathogenic risk in coastal zones.
The case studies are creating significant impacts through active engagement with diverse stakeholders, including national authorities, water boards, municipalities, local communities, and citizens. These multi-disciplinary collaborations have facilitated the integration of various perspectives and expertise, enhancing the relevance and applicability of the tools being tested. The One Health Living Lab setting is itself being perceived as a climate adaptation intervention, that in a very flexible manner, can brings the many local stakeholders together to establish a common space for understanding the multiple pressures the local community is facing and the devising of climate actions that show the most co-benefits across all involved sectors and minimise mal-adaptation.
The microbiological experiments reveal new insights into the fate of bacterial pathogens at the freshwater – coastal transition zone, with quantifications of survival as a function of temperature, pH, UV, salinity ranges. The experimental work also highlights the effect of strain variability as the conditions the bacteria have experienced before being subjected to the stressors. Experimental methods for the detection of viable viruses in wastewater have been developed for adenovirus, enterovirus, hepatitis-A, influenza A virus, respiratory syncytial virus and rotavirus and dependency on climate stressors have been experimentally assessed resulting in specific survival functions. The project has showcased how the survival functions can be integrated into how high-resolution coastal zone transport and water quality models that can then be exploited to: i) simulate scenarios under modified weather patterns, ii) conduct impact assessment of how diffuse and point sources can lead to contamination of bathing waters, iii) predict real-time pathogenic risk in coastal zones.
The case studies are creating significant impacts through active engagement with diverse stakeholders, including national authorities, water boards, municipalities, local communities, and citizens. These multi-disciplinary collaborations have facilitated the integration of various perspectives and expertise, enhancing the relevance and applicability of the tools being tested. The One Health Living Lab setting is itself being perceived as a climate adaptation intervention, that in a very flexible manner, can brings the many local stakeholders together to establish a common space for understanding the multiple pressures the local community is facing and the devising of climate actions that show the most co-benefits across all involved sectors and minimise mal-adaptation.