Periodic Reporting for period 1 - RESET (Resilience Estimation to SET management goals in marine ecosystems)
Reporting period: 2022-06-01 to 2024-10-31
Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project
Maintaining resilient and healthy ecosystems and populations is fundamental in order to ensure critical services to humanity. However, it is still not clear how many impacts a system can absorb before changing to a completely new structure and configuration (i.e. undergoing a regime shift). Resilience is defined as the capability of a system to maintain the same structure and functions even if impacted by multiple pressures. Therefore, estimating resilience of natural system is crucial, in order to better understand whether they are closed to a regime shift and thus to ensure effective management. However, few methods exist to estimate resilience of natural systems from empirical data, which are still rather difficult to apply and interpret. This methodological limitation has hindered an uptake of the resilience concept into management and policy frameworks. However, considering that under climate change regime shifts are predicted to increase, it would be crucial to include resilience estimation into management practices in order to sustainably manage our ecosystems in the future.
In this context, RESET aims at establishing a novel framework to estimate resilience of natural systems from empirical data (i.e. using statistical modelling). The project uses as case study the Northern Adriatic Sea, which is a system highly impacted by multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as fishing, climate change and eutrophication. Different types of data are available for this system, which is crucial in order to perform RESET. Regime shifts have been previously documented in the Northern Adriatic Sea at the plankton community level, but they were never previously recorded in the fish community or at an ecosystem level. Therefore, the first objective of RESET is to analyse how the community of the Northern Adriatic Sea (i.e. fish, crustaceans and mollusks) changed over time and whether regime shifts have occurred in the past. Based on this knowledge RESET aims at understanding the present resilience of the Northern Adriatic Sea in order to better project how it might react to future global changes. To achieve this, the framework to estimate resilience was firstly developed and validated. Understanding whether natural systems underwent regime shifts and whether they are closed to a new timing point (i.e. estimating their resilience) is fundamental in order to manage them and ensure a sustainable exploitation.
The second objective of the RESET is mainly linked with alternative methods to detect and anticipate regime shifts. Indeed, statistical methods often fail to successfully estimate the resilience of complex systems. Moreover these methods require a high simplification of the reality, which could mask potential important changes. Therefore, the second objective of RESET aims at understanding whether Local Ecological Knowledge could be useful to detect and anticipate tipping points. In particular, Fishers Ecological Knowledge was explored. Fishers experience the sea everyday and experience how it changes and how it is impacted. University of Padova has a strong collaboration with fishers at Chioggia harbour (biggest fishing harbour in Italy) and thus, in order to understand if fisher were able to detect and anticipate regime shifts, interviews were performed.
The last objective of RESET aims at understanding how to incorporate resilience into policy measures. This is crucial, since regime shifts are predicted to increase with climate change. At present, management measures do not operationally include resilience or regime shifts and therefore a paradigm shift should be favoured in order to focus more on this theme. The application and integration of multiple methods in order to improve the confidence level that these dynamics will occur is crucial to favour the inclusion of resilience into management.
By achieving these three objectives, RESET will surpass the state of the art of regime shifts and resilience in marine systems. First of all, it will develop a novel framework to measure resilience in complex systems from empirical data. While such frameworks exist, the new method will be easier to apply and interpret and will be based on the impact of interactive pressures on natural system, an important step to better understand the impact of global changes. Apart from this, RESET will investigate for the first time the presence of regime shifts in the Northern Adriatic Sea community, employing cutting edge methodologies. Another advancement in the field will be understanding the potential usefulness of Local Ecological Knowledge to anticipate regime shifts. This has never been tested before and is crucial to increase the methodologies and the data available to project regime shifts. Finally, understanding how to operationally include resilience into management is a step towards a future inclusion of this concept into policy frameworks.
The impact of RESET will be therefore very high, but not limited, to ecological science, mainly marine but also terrestrial ecology. Regime shifts can occur in very diverse field such as economy, medicine (e.g. cell differentiation and tumour development), epidemiology, behavioural science etc. Therefore, the framework developed by RESET to model resilience and regime shifts will be useful and could have an impact outside the ecological field. Economic and societal impact could also results from RESET. Indeed, the inclusion of resilience into management could help to better and sustainably manage our resources in the face of global changes and could therefore lead to economic and societal benefits.
In this context, RESET aims at establishing a novel framework to estimate resilience of natural systems from empirical data (i.e. using statistical modelling). The project uses as case study the Northern Adriatic Sea, which is a system highly impacted by multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as fishing, climate change and eutrophication. Different types of data are available for this system, which is crucial in order to perform RESET. Regime shifts have been previously documented in the Northern Adriatic Sea at the plankton community level, but they were never previously recorded in the fish community or at an ecosystem level. Therefore, the first objective of RESET is to analyse how the community of the Northern Adriatic Sea (i.e. fish, crustaceans and mollusks) changed over time and whether regime shifts have occurred in the past. Based on this knowledge RESET aims at understanding the present resilience of the Northern Adriatic Sea in order to better project how it might react to future global changes. To achieve this, the framework to estimate resilience was firstly developed and validated. Understanding whether natural systems underwent regime shifts and whether they are closed to a new timing point (i.e. estimating their resilience) is fundamental in order to manage them and ensure a sustainable exploitation.
The second objective of the RESET is mainly linked with alternative methods to detect and anticipate regime shifts. Indeed, statistical methods often fail to successfully estimate the resilience of complex systems. Moreover these methods require a high simplification of the reality, which could mask potential important changes. Therefore, the second objective of RESET aims at understanding whether Local Ecological Knowledge could be useful to detect and anticipate tipping points. In particular, Fishers Ecological Knowledge was explored. Fishers experience the sea everyday and experience how it changes and how it is impacted. University of Padova has a strong collaboration with fishers at Chioggia harbour (biggest fishing harbour in Italy) and thus, in order to understand if fisher were able to detect and anticipate regime shifts, interviews were performed.
The last objective of RESET aims at understanding how to incorporate resilience into policy measures. This is crucial, since regime shifts are predicted to increase with climate change. At present, management measures do not operationally include resilience or regime shifts and therefore a paradigm shift should be favoured in order to focus more on this theme. The application and integration of multiple methods in order to improve the confidence level that these dynamics will occur is crucial to favour the inclusion of resilience into management.
By achieving these three objectives, RESET will surpass the state of the art of regime shifts and resilience in marine systems. First of all, it will develop a novel framework to measure resilience in complex systems from empirical data. While such frameworks exist, the new method will be easier to apply and interpret and will be based on the impact of interactive pressures on natural system, an important step to better understand the impact of global changes. Apart from this, RESET will investigate for the first time the presence of regime shifts in the Northern Adriatic Sea community, employing cutting edge methodologies. Another advancement in the field will be understanding the potential usefulness of Local Ecological Knowledge to anticipate regime shifts. This has never been tested before and is crucial to increase the methodologies and the data available to project regime shifts. Finally, understanding how to operationally include resilience into management is a step towards a future inclusion of this concept into policy frameworks.
The impact of RESET will be therefore very high, but not limited, to ecological science, mainly marine but also terrestrial ecology. Regime shifts can occur in very diverse field such as economy, medicine (e.g. cell differentiation and tumour development), epidemiology, behavioural science etc. Therefore, the framework developed by RESET to model resilience and regime shifts will be useful and could have an impact outside the ecological field. Economic and societal impact could also results from RESET. Indeed, the inclusion of resilience into management could help to better and sustainably manage our resources in the face of global changes and could therefore lead to economic and societal benefits.
Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far
Firstly, I focus on developed a new framework to estimate the resilience of marine and complex systems called "Cuspra". I have developed this method starting from the stochastic cusp model. The stochastic cusp model is a mathematical model part of the catastrophe theory, which was developed by the mathematician Thom in the 70s. The method model the dynamics of a state variable for instance a population or a community, depending on two control variables, such as fishing and temperature that interact with each others. The dynamic modelled by the model range from linear to regime shift dynamics (which are non-linear and discontinuous). To estimate resilience, I expanded this model and calculated how far the system was from reaching a regime shift depending on the two drivers. The resilience indicator that I have built range from 0, very low resilience, to 1, very high resilience to the interacting stressors. In order to develop the indicator, I firstly validated the method with simulations and then I apply the method to different systems from populations to ecosystems. The new cuspra model seems to perform well and is different from other resilience indicator because: i) it computes resilience based on true regime shift of the system, ii) it computes resilience depending on the impact of interactive drivers, iii) it is an easy metric to apply and interpret. The model can be used as a "real-time" resilience indicator to measure resilience in the past and in the presence of a system and its vulnerabilities to drivers.
In the second part of the project I analysed the dynamics of the Northern Adriatic Sea community, in particular whether regime shifts occur and what was the resilience of the system from fishing, climate change and eutrophication. Firstly, I analysed market data (fisheries landings) from 1980 until present time. I found that the composition of the landings, which of course depends on the community status, abruptly changed mainly in three years: 1987, 1998, and 2011. The community therefore presented four phases during which different species were dominant. In particular, in the 1980s large elasmobranchs and fishes dominated the community, while at present more opportunistic species such as mullet, sole and crustaceans are dominant. Applying the stochastic cusp model, I found that these changes were a regime shift caused by fishing pressure and temperature increase. This first study demonstrated the presence of regime shifts in the Northern Adriatic Sea. Moreover, while 1987 and 1998 were years in which well known regime shifts occurred in other systems (i.e. North Sea and Baltic Sea), the changes in 2011 were documented for the first time. Subsequently, I use scientific survey data to estimate the resilience of the community in three geographical areas of the Northern Adriatic Sea: the North, the Center and the South, which are oceanographically quite distinct. Interestingly, I found that the dynamics detect at the entire basin scale, different from dynamics of the different areas. In general, the Northern part had more species that underwent abrupt changes and indeed presented a regime shift which encompassed lots of species and was mainly caused by temperature. The community is still not at present in a resilient state. In the southern North Sea instead, few species presented abrupt dynamics and a regime shift occurred that however involved very few species. Here the community is now resilient and the regime shift happened mainly due to temperature increase. Finally, in the center there are mixed dynamics. These results, not only brought new perspectives on resilience and regime shift on the Northern Adriatic Sea, but also address complex regime shift problems such as spatial heterogeneity and the regime shift transmission through different organisational levels. Also in this case a tipping point, in particular in the North, was detected in 2014. I detect the same tipping point also in another study in which we focus on Common sole (Solea solea). The species shows an abrupt increase after 2010 mainly due to a reduced fishing coupled with increased river outflows and increase temperatures. This was the first time a regime shift in sole in the Adriatic Sea was investigated and modelled. Finally, I investigated the problem of spatial heterogeneity also in the population of Atlantic cod in the North Sea.
To understand whether fishers knowledge could anticipate tipping point, semi-structured interviews were performed. Semi-structured interviews are a method typical of social science. The interviews were structured around three main topics: i) detection of the regime shift, ii) anticipation of the regime shift, iii) adaptive capacity of the fishers. We interviewed 20 fishers. To understand whether fishers could detect regime shifts we asked them if they could remember the 1987, 1998 and 2011 (periods identified in the previous study) as years of changes. If yes, we asked if they remembered what changes, how and which were the causes. The majority of fisher was able to remember these changes and therefore they were able to detect regime shifts. However, none of them was able to anticipate that these changes would have occurred, and thus fishers were not able to anticipate regime shifts. However, they suggested potential indicators (both human-based and climate-based) to monitor in order to anticipate changes. This could be potentially really useful to include into management. Finally, the adaptive capacity of the fishery seemed high. Fishers were able to easily change gears, areas of target species, indicating that the fisheries seem resilient to ecological changes. Other interviews, combined with statistical and field observations, were then performed to understand the impact of an invasive species on the small-scale fisheries in the lagoon. Invasive species are another threat that can induce regime shifts.
Finally, to understand how to operationalise resilience into management, I have organised a 4 days workshop to which 24 scientists from 6 countries participated. The workshop was funded through Euromarine and was organised in Chioggia. Ways to incorporate resilience into management and in particular European management (i.e. Marine Strategy Framework Directive) were discussed.
In the second part of the project I analysed the dynamics of the Northern Adriatic Sea community, in particular whether regime shifts occur and what was the resilience of the system from fishing, climate change and eutrophication. Firstly, I analysed market data (fisheries landings) from 1980 until present time. I found that the composition of the landings, which of course depends on the community status, abruptly changed mainly in three years: 1987, 1998, and 2011. The community therefore presented four phases during which different species were dominant. In particular, in the 1980s large elasmobranchs and fishes dominated the community, while at present more opportunistic species such as mullet, sole and crustaceans are dominant. Applying the stochastic cusp model, I found that these changes were a regime shift caused by fishing pressure and temperature increase. This first study demonstrated the presence of regime shifts in the Northern Adriatic Sea. Moreover, while 1987 and 1998 were years in which well known regime shifts occurred in other systems (i.e. North Sea and Baltic Sea), the changes in 2011 were documented for the first time. Subsequently, I use scientific survey data to estimate the resilience of the community in three geographical areas of the Northern Adriatic Sea: the North, the Center and the South, which are oceanographically quite distinct. Interestingly, I found that the dynamics detect at the entire basin scale, different from dynamics of the different areas. In general, the Northern part had more species that underwent abrupt changes and indeed presented a regime shift which encompassed lots of species and was mainly caused by temperature. The community is still not at present in a resilient state. In the southern North Sea instead, few species presented abrupt dynamics and a regime shift occurred that however involved very few species. Here the community is now resilient and the regime shift happened mainly due to temperature increase. Finally, in the center there are mixed dynamics. These results, not only brought new perspectives on resilience and regime shift on the Northern Adriatic Sea, but also address complex regime shift problems such as spatial heterogeneity and the regime shift transmission through different organisational levels. Also in this case a tipping point, in particular in the North, was detected in 2014. I detect the same tipping point also in another study in which we focus on Common sole (Solea solea). The species shows an abrupt increase after 2010 mainly due to a reduced fishing coupled with increased river outflows and increase temperatures. This was the first time a regime shift in sole in the Adriatic Sea was investigated and modelled. Finally, I investigated the problem of spatial heterogeneity also in the population of Atlantic cod in the North Sea.
To understand whether fishers knowledge could anticipate tipping point, semi-structured interviews were performed. Semi-structured interviews are a method typical of social science. The interviews were structured around three main topics: i) detection of the regime shift, ii) anticipation of the regime shift, iii) adaptive capacity of the fishers. We interviewed 20 fishers. To understand whether fishers could detect regime shifts we asked them if they could remember the 1987, 1998 and 2011 (periods identified in the previous study) as years of changes. If yes, we asked if they remembered what changes, how and which were the causes. The majority of fisher was able to remember these changes and therefore they were able to detect regime shifts. However, none of them was able to anticipate that these changes would have occurred, and thus fishers were not able to anticipate regime shifts. However, they suggested potential indicators (both human-based and climate-based) to monitor in order to anticipate changes. This could be potentially really useful to include into management. Finally, the adaptive capacity of the fishery seemed high. Fishers were able to easily change gears, areas of target species, indicating that the fisheries seem resilient to ecological changes. Other interviews, combined with statistical and field observations, were then performed to understand the impact of an invasive species on the small-scale fisheries in the lagoon. Invasive species are another threat that can induce regime shifts.
Finally, to understand how to operationalise resilience into management, I have organised a 4 days workshop to which 24 scientists from 6 countries participated. The workshop was funded through Euromarine and was organised in Chioggia. Ways to incorporate resilience into management and in particular European management (i.e. Marine Strategy Framework Directive) were discussed.
Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)
RESET goes beyond the state of the art thanks to multiple results:
1) The new framework to estimate resilience is innovative since: i) it calculates on resilience based on true regime shifts dynamics of the system, ii) it calculates resilience depending on two interactive drivers (and not of the system per se), iii) it is applicable for all systems for which we have data. Moreover, the interpretation of the results is relatively straightforward and the model can be used as a real-time indicator to monitor resilience. For this reason the method is different from all the other methods that are present in the literature.
2) RESET detected for the first time a regime shift due to fishing and climate of the Northern Adriatic Sea community. Moreover, it detected a new tipping point around 2011-2014. This tipping point was never described before in the literature. This results is crucial to understand how the system changed over the past years and how it could react to increasing pressures.
3) For the first time RESET explored whether it is possible to use Local Ecological Knowledge to anticipate tipping points. While the answer in the case of Chioggia Fishing Fleet was no, the fishers suggest multiple indicators to use to track the changes. This is an important step to have a more interdisciplinary approach also in the topic of anticipate tipping points and show the importance of cooperation with stakeholders.
4) RESET produced a paper to show how to include resilience into policy frameworks and especially how to operationalise it. The way in which RESET approached this theme is new compared to other publications that are present in the literature.
Therefore, RESET manage to advance the state of the art of the regime shift science, not only in ecology but potentially in many other fields in which regime shifts and resilience are detected and can be estimated (economy, medicine (e.g. cell differentiation and tumour development), epidemiology, behavioural science etc.).
Finally, RESET highlighted that more works need to be done on understanding also feedbacks of regime shifts and thus, which are the mechanisms that enhance or dampen the resilience of a system. This important outcome of the project will be develop further in the future.
1) The new framework to estimate resilience is innovative since: i) it calculates on resilience based on true regime shifts dynamics of the system, ii) it calculates resilience depending on two interactive drivers (and not of the system per se), iii) it is applicable for all systems for which we have data. Moreover, the interpretation of the results is relatively straightforward and the model can be used as a real-time indicator to monitor resilience. For this reason the method is different from all the other methods that are present in the literature.
2) RESET detected for the first time a regime shift due to fishing and climate of the Northern Adriatic Sea community. Moreover, it detected a new tipping point around 2011-2014. This tipping point was never described before in the literature. This results is crucial to understand how the system changed over the past years and how it could react to increasing pressures.
3) For the first time RESET explored whether it is possible to use Local Ecological Knowledge to anticipate tipping points. While the answer in the case of Chioggia Fishing Fleet was no, the fishers suggest multiple indicators to use to track the changes. This is an important step to have a more interdisciplinary approach also in the topic of anticipate tipping points and show the importance of cooperation with stakeholders.
4) RESET produced a paper to show how to include resilience into policy frameworks and especially how to operationalise it. The way in which RESET approached this theme is new compared to other publications that are present in the literature.
Therefore, RESET manage to advance the state of the art of the regime shift science, not only in ecology but potentially in many other fields in which regime shifts and resilience are detected and can be estimated (economy, medicine (e.g. cell differentiation and tumour development), epidemiology, behavioural science etc.).
Finally, RESET highlighted that more works need to be done on understanding also feedbacks of regime shifts and thus, which are the mechanisms that enhance or dampen the resilience of a system. This important outcome of the project will be develop further in the future.