Periodic Reporting for period 1 - TREAD (daTa and pRocesses in sEismic hAzarD)
Reporting period: 2023-01-01 to 2024-12-31
The aim of TREAD is to train a new generation of seismic hazard scientists to tackle the challenges of earthquake forecasting in complex tectonic contexts such as the Europe and Mediterranean regions. A change of paradigm in seismic hazard is necessary to be able to fully account for the specifics properties of earthquake source and seismic modes in those areas. For example, to calculate the probability of having multiple earthquake ruptures, the interaction between active faults across various space-time scales needs to be accounted for, as well as the effects of stress transfer and fault-fluid interaction in earthquake triggering. TREAD objectives are: 1) Developing a novel integrative approach to seismic hazard analysis in Europe and the Mediterranean by bridging the gap from small-scale laboratory experiments to large-scale observations. 2) Establishing physics-based earthquake modelling by linking computational modelling of earthquakes from millions of years to fractions of a second. 3) Transferring earthquake geology and computational modelling to hazard and risk assessment adapted to the need of government, industry and scientific stakeholders. To reach those objectives we gathered the TREAD consortium that comprised 14 academic institutions and 8 private partners of the highest scientific level from 7 European countries, covering frontiers knowledge and practices in observational, experimental and modelling fields. TREAD will: 1- include a unique large-scale training component to create the ground for a new generation of experts in the field of seismic hazard and risk assessment; 2-will promote interactions between seismic hazard and geomechanics practitioners and risk and decision-making activities producing an interdisciplinary and holistic training program; 3-will address factors not integrated in the actual models but essential to better anticipate seismic hazard in Europe and the Mediterranean regions.
Scientific activities of RP1 consisted in:
- Identification of paleoearthquake events using hyperspectral imaging and 3D models in paleoseismological trenches in seismically active Mediterranean areas.
- Fault activation and earthquake rupture experiments at Bedretto Lab to link lab results with field observations, focusing on seismicity, fault dynamics, and fluid-rock interactions.
- Hydrothermal experiments on dolomite gouge under controlled stress and pressure (50 MPa), temperatures (20-600°C), and varying velocities (nm/s-mm/s).
- Cross-scale numerical modelling in the central Apennines, simulating 200 kyr of geological evolution from surface to 800 km depth.
- Models simulating strain from dislocation sources, representing fast (earthquakes) and slow (aseismic) fault slip events.
- Physics-based models simulating tectonic deformation over millions of years and dynamic earthquake ruptures at sub-second scales.
- Analysis of heterogeneity effects on rupture dynamics and ground shaking, using 3D dynamic rupture models (e.g. 2023 Turkey earthquake).
- Simulations of synthetic earthquake catalogues to study fault interactions and earthquake generation.
- Estimation of aleatory variability in hazard modeling, focusing on improved methodologies for modeling distributed seismicity.
- Assessment of the impact of different hazard approaches on risk metrics, including site effect methodologies, proxies, and hazard grid impacts.
- Identification of paleoearthquake events using hyperspectral imaging and 3D models in paleoseismological trenches in seismically active Mediterranean areas.
- Fault activation and earthquake rupture experiments at Bedretto Lab to link lab results with field observations, focusing on seismicity, fault dynamics, and fluid-rock interactions.
- Hydrothermal experiments on dolomite gouge under controlled stress and pressure (50 MPa), temperatures (20-600°C), and varying velocities (nm/s-mm/s).
- Cross-scale numerical modelling in the central Apennines, simulating 200 kyr of geological evolution from surface to 800 km depth.
- Models simulating strain from dislocation sources, representing fast (earthquakes) and slow (aseismic) fault slip events.
- Physics-based models simulating tectonic deformation over millions of years and dynamic earthquake ruptures at sub-second scales.
- Analysis of heterogeneity effects on rupture dynamics and ground shaking, using 3D dynamic rupture models (e.g. 2023 Turkey earthquake).
- Simulations of synthetic earthquake catalogues to study fault interactions and earthquake generation.
- Estimation of aleatory variability in hazard modeling, focusing on improved methodologies for modeling distributed seismicity.
- Assessment of the impact of different hazard approaches on risk metrics, including site effect methodologies, proxies, and hazard grid impacts.
TREAD will train the next generation of earth scientists and engineers in the integration of concepts from earthquake geology, the physics of seismic rupture and fault mechanics, and computational earthquake modelling. The hazard models produced with these approaches will be then combined into novel integrated seismic risk analyses, which will undoubtedly have significant social impact and economic applications. TREAD will foster a refocusing of earthquake rupture modelling and fault geological observations into these emergent and important multi-scale problems.
By promoting close collaboration between experimental physicists, geologists and seismic hazard and risk modellers, this Doctoral Network will enrich and empower the existing, but historically separated, communities with the objective of bringing sophisticated numerical and theoretical methods into seismic risks assessments. The practical implementation of seismic hazard within TREAD will be reinforced by the development of a comprehensive framework for treating challenges such as uncertainties in earthquake hazard, low probability- high risk events, risk assessment and policy making. The TREAD triangle of knowledge of research, training and innovation will assure the employability of the 11 Doctoral Candidates (hereinafter DC) in academic, private and decision-making sectors. The interdisciplinary research of the TREAD project, promoted by an interdisciplinary network gathering the best European institutes in the field, will prepare a new generation of researchers able to master for the first-time earthquake geology, seismology, seismic hazard, and risk assessment. Through the training and research program of TREAD, the DC will increase their employability through exposure to two different paths: the academic path and the private sector path. Over the last decades, there have been several multi-disciplinary projects in Europe dealing with seismology and seismic hazard (e.g. SHARE, EPOS, NERA, NEREIS, SERA, EFEHR, QUEST and URBASIS for engineering seismology, ChEESE for Solid Earth, CREEP for geomechanics), some aiming at developing European scale infrastructures (e.g. EPOS or ChEESE large computing system, or observational systems) or database and associated web services (e.g. SHARE-EFEHR earthquake source database, ORFEUS broad band database). TREAD builds on these projects by promoting a more integrated multi-disciplinary approach to seismic hazard.
By promoting close collaboration between experimental physicists, geologists and seismic hazard and risk modellers, this Doctoral Network will enrich and empower the existing, but historically separated, communities with the objective of bringing sophisticated numerical and theoretical methods into seismic risks assessments. The practical implementation of seismic hazard within TREAD will be reinforced by the development of a comprehensive framework for treating challenges such as uncertainties in earthquake hazard, low probability- high risk events, risk assessment and policy making. The TREAD triangle of knowledge of research, training and innovation will assure the employability of the 11 Doctoral Candidates (hereinafter DC) in academic, private and decision-making sectors. The interdisciplinary research of the TREAD project, promoted by an interdisciplinary network gathering the best European institutes in the field, will prepare a new generation of researchers able to master for the first-time earthquake geology, seismology, seismic hazard, and risk assessment. Through the training and research program of TREAD, the DC will increase their employability through exposure to two different paths: the academic path and the private sector path. Over the last decades, there have been several multi-disciplinary projects in Europe dealing with seismology and seismic hazard (e.g. SHARE, EPOS, NERA, NEREIS, SERA, EFEHR, QUEST and URBASIS for engineering seismology, ChEESE for Solid Earth, CREEP for geomechanics), some aiming at developing European scale infrastructures (e.g. EPOS or ChEESE large computing system, or observational systems) or database and associated web services (e.g. SHARE-EFEHR earthquake source database, ORFEUS broad band database). TREAD builds on these projects by promoting a more integrated multi-disciplinary approach to seismic hazard.