Periodic Reporting for period 1 - PHOEBE (Predictive ApproacHes fOr SafEr UrBan Environments)
Reporting period: 2022-11-01 to 2024-04-30
The EU-funded ‘Predictive Approaches for Safer Urban Environment’ (PHOEBE) project brings together the interdisciplinary power of traffic simulation and road safety assessment to increase road safety, focusing on those more vulnerable in traffic using active and micromobility. The PHOEBE framework combines research, data, and innovative tools and models to simulate and forecast the safety impact of disruptive changes, transitions or scenarios across urban transport networks. The 3.5-year- long PHOEBE project will apply and refine the framework in real-world scenarios across three pilot sites: Athens (GR), Valencia (ES) and West Midlands (UK).
The challenge: Recent European Union statistics on urban road fatalities suggest that even though road fatalities are constantly declining, still nearly 7500 fatalities were recorded in the EU27 in 2020. This number of urban fatalities represents around 40% of all road fatalities.The predominantly car-centric mobility planning of past decades create passenger car congestion in urban environments across the continent. Furthermore, lacking speed limit compliance, car-centric spatial design and reckless driving create a precarious or even dangerous urban landscape for pedestrians, cyclists, users of emerging mobility solutions and vulnerable road users. The latter group is facing significant challenges, as traffic flows might be too fast in urban environments or street spaces are too crowded. Therefore, the PHOEBE project is following the ambitious ‘Vision Zero’ goal that was formulated by the European Commission with the aim to halve the number of road fatalities by 2020 and a long term-goal to move close to zero fatalities by 2050.THE
The plan: PHOEBE is developing an integrated, dynamic human-centred predictive safety assessment framework for all road user types in urban areas. This will be achieved by bringing together traffic simulation, road safety assessment, data concerning human behaviour and mode shift, as well as demand modelling of new and emerging mobility data. The unique PHOEBE plan to develop integrated modelling and simulation tools to help cities to plan urban road safety measures. PHOEBE will be able to predict and assess safety impacts at the transport system level without the need for detailed simulation of the entire network by applying a simple Select - Simulate - Evaluate - Extrapolate approach. Overall, the results of PHOEBE can be used as a blueprint by other European cities to developed their own knowledge products, such as socioeconomic analysis model, urban road safety assessment, human behaviour and choice modelling. It will show how cities can establish and apply the predictive safety assessment framework in an efficient and cost-effective way, providing a theoretical guide on how it works, and how to implement it and knowledge products.
The challenge: Recent European Union statistics on urban road fatalities suggest that even though road fatalities are constantly declining, still nearly 7500 fatalities were recorded in the EU27 in 2020. This number of urban fatalities represents around 40% of all road fatalities.The predominantly car-centric mobility planning of past decades create passenger car congestion in urban environments across the continent. Furthermore, lacking speed limit compliance, car-centric spatial design and reckless driving create a precarious or even dangerous urban landscape for pedestrians, cyclists, users of emerging mobility solutions and vulnerable road users. The latter group is facing significant challenges, as traffic flows might be too fast in urban environments or street spaces are too crowded. Therefore, the PHOEBE project is following the ambitious ‘Vision Zero’ goal that was formulated by the European Commission with the aim to halve the number of road fatalities by 2020 and a long term-goal to move close to zero fatalities by 2050.THE
The plan: PHOEBE is developing an integrated, dynamic human-centred predictive safety assessment framework for all road user types in urban areas. This will be achieved by bringing together traffic simulation, road safety assessment, data concerning human behaviour and mode shift, as well as demand modelling of new and emerging mobility data. The unique PHOEBE plan to develop integrated modelling and simulation tools to help cities to plan urban road safety measures. PHOEBE will be able to predict and assess safety impacts at the transport system level without the need for detailed simulation of the entire network by applying a simple Select - Simulate - Evaluate - Extrapolate approach. Overall, the results of PHOEBE can be used as a blueprint by other European cities to developed their own knowledge products, such as socioeconomic analysis model, urban road safety assessment, human behaviour and choice modelling. It will show how cities can establish and apply the predictive safety assessment framework in an efficient and cost-effective way, providing a theoretical guide on how it works, and how to implement it and knowledge products.
The current project's main achievement is the establishment of the PHOEBE methodological framework. The backbone of the PHOEBE methodology was developed, consisting of a 'HOW matrix' and a 'process flowchart'. The HOW matrix provided the inputs, outputs, and the models in between for every component in PHOEBE (demand models, traffic microsimulation, road safety assessment, behavioral models, and socioeconomic impact assessment). The process flowchart provided an understanding of how each component fits within the inputs/outputs of other PHOEBE components. This work is documented in Deliverables 1.1 and 1.2.
PHOEBE has also established the use case experimental design, where the framework will be tested. Each use case had defined objectives, leading to the selection of sites and performance measures for the PHOEBE framework's application. The designs detailed coverage areas, scenarios, and model capabilities that are currently under development as part of WP3. The use case experimental designs are documented in Deliverable 4.1 while the current stage of the model developments is detailed in Deliverable 3.1.
Additionally, the first 18 months of the project were dedicated to understanding data needs and data availability. This involved working with stakeholders in use case regions, user case owners, and all project partners to gather data requirements related to the project. This process followed a series of designed steps, each seeking to elicit high-level, then progressively more refined and complete project data requirements. This approach focused on data-centric, consumer-led analysis across all stakeholders. Deliverable 2.1 presents the results of the data mapping exercises.
PHOEBE has also established the use case experimental design, where the framework will be tested. Each use case had defined objectives, leading to the selection of sites and performance measures for the PHOEBE framework's application. The designs detailed coverage areas, scenarios, and model capabilities that are currently under development as part of WP3. The use case experimental designs are documented in Deliverable 4.1 while the current stage of the model developments is detailed in Deliverable 3.1.
Additionally, the first 18 months of the project were dedicated to understanding data needs and data availability. This involved working with stakeholders in use case regions, user case owners, and all project partners to gather data requirements related to the project. This process followed a series of designed steps, each seeking to elicit high-level, then progressively more refined and complete project data requirements. This approach focused on data-centric, consumer-led analysis across all stakeholders. Deliverable 2.1 presents the results of the data mapping exercises.
been studied and implemented discretely before (travel demand, traffic microsimulation, human behaviour, road safety assessment, and socio-economic analysis) into one scalable framework that systematically links microscopic with mesoscopic road safety assessment, and scaling it up to the entire network of a city (i.e. macroscopic).
Investigating this integration within the PHOEBE methodology includes the following aspects: (i) What information (data) each component receives from the other components; (ii) What models each component applies on the received information from other components; (iii) What information (data) each component provides for the other components; and (iv) What process (order) is followed for the above information receiving / giving.
An important part of this integrated framework is creating a set of common safety indicators across all components and harmonising them so that the links between the components are seamless, something that, from the best of our knowledge, was never done before. In addition and during the development of this framework, special attention is given to the vulnerable road users (VRUs) and new emerging modes of transport (e.g. micro-mobility), something still not well explored in the road safety literature.
Phoebe is currently in the initial attempt to test its advances of the SoA in the following areas:
• Integrating human behaviour and modal shift models into traffic simulation for safety analysis purposes: The aim of this work is to capture of the impacts of transport disruptions or transitions, by addressing behavioural adaptation, travel behaviour change and infrastructure provision.
• Improving traffic simulation models for Vulnerable Road User (VRU) safety: The aim of this work is to establish a methodological process for incorporating non-motorised/light transport modes in traffic simulation to predict road safety outcomes for these road user groups.
• Enhancement of road safety assessments for urban road networks: The aim of this work is to enhance existing road safety assessment models, namely iRAP’s Star Rating and FSI estimations with a focus on urban environments and CycleRAP for micro-mobility simulations, and associated user tools with the capability for dynamic modelling of road user risk and scenario testing.
• Socioeconomic impact assessment: The aim of this work is to devise a harmonised methodology for the socio-economic impact assessment of safety measures at three levels (health and safety, environmental and economic) through network-level extrapolation road safety evaluation mode shift and induced demand modelling components of the PHOEBE framework to allow informed decision making by all stakeholders.
Investigating this integration within the PHOEBE methodology includes the following aspects: (i) What information (data) each component receives from the other components; (ii) What models each component applies on the received information from other components; (iii) What information (data) each component provides for the other components; and (iv) What process (order) is followed for the above information receiving / giving.
An important part of this integrated framework is creating a set of common safety indicators across all components and harmonising them so that the links between the components are seamless, something that, from the best of our knowledge, was never done before. In addition and during the development of this framework, special attention is given to the vulnerable road users (VRUs) and new emerging modes of transport (e.g. micro-mobility), something still not well explored in the road safety literature.
Phoebe is currently in the initial attempt to test its advances of the SoA in the following areas:
• Integrating human behaviour and modal shift models into traffic simulation for safety analysis purposes: The aim of this work is to capture of the impacts of transport disruptions or transitions, by addressing behavioural adaptation, travel behaviour change and infrastructure provision.
• Improving traffic simulation models for Vulnerable Road User (VRU) safety: The aim of this work is to establish a methodological process for incorporating non-motorised/light transport modes in traffic simulation to predict road safety outcomes for these road user groups.
• Enhancement of road safety assessments for urban road networks: The aim of this work is to enhance existing road safety assessment models, namely iRAP’s Star Rating and FSI estimations with a focus on urban environments and CycleRAP for micro-mobility simulations, and associated user tools with the capability for dynamic modelling of road user risk and scenario testing.
• Socioeconomic impact assessment: The aim of this work is to devise a harmonised methodology for the socio-economic impact assessment of safety measures at three levels (health and safety, environmental and economic) through network-level extrapolation road safety evaluation mode shift and induced demand modelling components of the PHOEBE framework to allow informed decision making by all stakeholders.