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Exploring Plausible Circular futures

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ExPliCit (Exploring Plausible Circular futures)

Reporting period: 2023-01-01 to 2024-12-31

The Circular Economy (CE) represents a new paradigm that is capable of pushing the frontiers of sustainable development by transforming the relationships between ecological systems and economic activities. Such a new paradigm is expected to repair economy-society-nature interactions, replacing the current linear economic model with a new one that is restorative and regenerative by intention and design; the core idea is that, rather than discarding products that can be potentially reused or recycled, they should be re-employed in a cascade of subsequent or feedback uses . Such a shift is anticipated to mark an industrial transformation based on different product design and end-of-life strategies intending to narrow, slow, and close material and energy loops . Going beyond the sole pursuit of waste prevention and reduction, CE aims to inspire technological, organisational, and social innovation across and within supply chains fundamentally transforming the way our economic systems operate. Also, CE has been pushed into public discourse with media devoting increasing attention to it. This has been accompanied by several attempts by national governments and international economic policy bodies to develop strategies for the implementation of CE practices at micro (company), meso (eco-industrial parks) and macro (city, region, nation) levels. At the European Union (EU) level, these attempts have culminated in the adoption of ‘Circular Economy Action Plan’ by the European Commission in March 2020. Constituting one of the main building blocks of the European Green Deal, the proposed directives in the plan are aimed at closing the loop of product life cycles through greater recycling and reuse, with the objective of bringing benefits for both the environment (fostering energy savings and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and promoting resource use efficiency) and the economy (boosting the promotion of green jobs), by decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation. However, while there is common agreement that the transition towards a CE could foster more sustainable futures, there is a lack of discussion about how a truly (viable, feasible, and desirable) circular economic system should be organised. Most of the current literature on CE fails to recognise this, presenting the transition towards a CE as a straightforward, neutral, and apolitical process, implicitly characterised by a techno-optimistic and eco-modernist stance .
Within this context, this project calls for opening up a debate to deconstruct the increasingly hegemonic discourse of CE based on a technocratic approach and reconstruct it by embedding normative and political dimensions, looking at a plurality of plausible CE futures, and discussing their implications in terms of the organisation of production and distribution networks, also involving a wide set of stakeholders.
The ExPliCit project is progressing according to schedule. A good number of secondments has been completed, totalling 53.7 person-months to date. Collaborations and discussions among beneficiaries and partners are ongoing, and future secondments are being scheduled in line with the deliverable plan to allow for necessary preparation work before their completion.
Work towards the project objectives has begun during visits among partners, and all project deliverables due to date, along with project milestones, have been completed. Thanks to the solid foundations laid during this initial reporting period, the project appears to be definitely on track for delivering the final research outputs for WP1, WP2 and WP3.
WP1 has focused on identifying circular futures and investigating their key determinants and dynamics. In this context, WP1 includes the development of three knowledge co-production workshops, in which previously identified scenarios have been explored by different stakeholders. Based on an extensive literature review and an iterative co-creation process, the project team has designed four circular economy (CE) scenarios at the intersection of two key dimensions: the governance model (bottom-up, decentralised or top-down, centralised) and the prioritisation of economic growth (a growth-based society or a limits-to-growth society based on ecological boundaries). Details of these scenarios can be found in Deliverables 1.2 and 1.3. Also, the project developed an adaptation of the Scenario Exploration System to the CE futures.
Based on work conducted in WP1, WP2 is exploring different supply chain configurations that will emerge under different socio-political CE scenarios. Results will be available in the forthcoming D2.1 which will provide some evidence of the supply chain characterisations for each of the four CE futures identified in WP1.
Similarly, as regards WP3, based on the features identified for the different CE future scenarios, a number of modelling requirements (i.e. the characteristics that the models should possess in order to properly describe these scenarios) have been developed. These modelling requirements will serve to select the most suitable modelling methodologies commonly used in supply chain dynamics and circular economy. An exhaustive analysis of the modelling methodologies potentially suited to describe the circular scenarios has been conducted and reported in D3.1 with some conceptualisations which will allow simulation models to be applicable across different Circular Supply Chain archetypes.
In terms of the conceptualisation of CE futures, the project has advanced current knowledge through several publications which have enhanced the debate on the topic.
Also, several papers have discussed the supply chain implications of alternative CE futures, and on early modelling attempts.
The project is contributing to the advancement of CE research across several disciplines.
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