Asset Level Modelling of RISKs In the Face of Climate Induced Extreme Events and ADAPTtation

Project Information

RISKADAPT

Grant agreement ID: 101093939

DOI

10.3030/101093939

Project closed

EC signature date 6 December 2022

Start date 1 January 2023

End date 31 December 2025

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

€ 2 534 786,25

EU contribution

€ 2 533 536,00

Coordinated by

RISA SICHERHEITSANALYSEN GMBH
Germany

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - RISKADAPT (Asset Level Modelling of RISKs In the Face of Climate Induced Extreme Events and ADAPTtation)

Reporting period: 2023-01-01 to 2024-06-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

RISKADAPT provides, in close cooperation with the end-users/other stakeholders, a novel, integrated, modular, interoperable, public and free-of-charge, customisable user-friendly, platform (PRISKADAPT), to support systemic, risk-informed decisions regarding adaptation to CC induced compound events at the asset level, focusing on the structural system. PRISKADAPT explicitly models dependencies between infrastructures, which, inter alia, provides a better understanding of the nexus between climate hazards and social vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, this project identifies gaps in data and proposes ways to fill them, so as to advance the state-of-the-art in asset level modelling by means of utilizing advanced climate science to predict CC forcing on the structure of interest and structural analyses that are customised to the specific structure of interest. The proposed approach considers all major CC induced load effects in tandem with material deterioration, novel probabilistic environmental LCA and LCC of structural adaptation measures as well as a new model to assess climate risk that will combine technical with social risk assessments. PRISKADAPT provides values to a set of indicators for each asset of interest, quantifying primary parameters and impacts, and delivers all the required information for adaptation decisions in the form of a Model Information System. PRISKADAPT is implemented in the case studies of the project pilots that involve specific assets, however, it permits customisation with local parameters and data, so it can be applied across Europe for CC adaptation decisions involving assets of similar function, that are exposed to multiple climate hazards. RISKADAPT's objectives include:
• O1: Elaborate climatic datasets for structural adaptation decisions.
• O2: Assess time-dependent loss of structural capacity due to extreme weather and material degradation from CC.
• O3: Identify environmental impacts and costs of adaptation options for new or rehabilitated structures.
• O4: Involve end-users in co-design and participatory decision-making for CC adaptation.
• O5: Provide an open-source platform integrating engineering and social consequences for customizable CC adaptation decisions.
• O6: Develop a MIS to compare adaptation solutions based on engineering, social, and ecological indicators.
• O7 and O8 focus on evaluating project outcomes across four pilots in vulnerable regions and extending the platform's applicability beyond selected pilots. External engineers will be invited to use PRISKADAPT and integrate their modules, with training provided to city councils to promote the platform.
RISKADAPT recognizes the value of collaboration and engagement with relevant projects, initiatives, and organizations. By actively seeking cross-promotion and synergies with ongoing efforts, the project aims to align efforts and promote the exchange of information, best practices, and lessons learned. By developing and implementing innovative technologies and solutions, RISKADAPT aims to promote adaptive strategies for climate resilience.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

Key achievements of the RISKADAPT project during M1-M18:
• Detailed insights were gathered from end-users through interviews, focus groups, and workshops. This informed the creation of Communities of Practice (CoPs) and was documented in Deliverable D2.1 ensuring the platform addresses key needs like service access, crisis communication, and timely information.
• WP2 defined the system architecture and technical specifications for the RISKADAPT platform, aligning with user requirements. Deliverable D2.2 documents a robust, interoperable system supporting seamless data integration and management.
• WP3, led by FMI, processed climate data from Copernicus services, estimating extreme meteorological values for pilots 1-3. For Pilot 1, hydrological data was used to model river discharges and extreme weather impacts.
• Eco-friendly materials and adaptation options for structural rehabilitation were identified, focusing on resilience against climate change. A library of materials for Pilots 1-3 was created, with findings to be presented in D4.1.
• Data collected from pilot asset owners enabled structural analyses, assessing vulnerabilities under extreme weather and material degradation. Pilot 4's glass windows, considered non-structural, led to an algorithm for damage assessment, presented in Deliverable 3.6.
• Significant progress was made on the RISKADAPT platform, including a database for material and adaptation options, and a risk assessment framework. The DMS design is nearing its first release, and a user-friendly 3D visualization interface is under development.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The project has made significant progress toward achieving its outcomes and impacts, with several results already being produced. For OUT1 (asset-level models), structural assessments, probabilistic LCA/LCC models, and decision-support tools are in progress. These tools benefit various sectors, including civil engineering, green construction, and public authorities, by improving adaptation decision-making and integrating sustainability considerations. Similarly, OUT2 enables public authorities to compare different adaptation approaches using the MIS platform, improving policy decisions. Addressing OUT3, the project has filled (and will continue identifying) data gaps in vulnerability assessments, construction costs, and social impacts, further enhancing decision-making capabilities.
In terms of impacts, IMP1 (smarter adaptation) is supported by the digitization of materials passports and BIM integration, facilitating better decision-making through accessible, interoperable data. IMP2 (faster adaptation) will be achieved through early adoption by industrial partners and the open-source platform, accelerating the deployment of adaptation technologies. IMP3 (systemic adaptation) is yet to be fully realized, with relevant tasks slated for the next reporting period. The project also contributes to scientific advancements (IMP4) by promoting an integrated framework for assessing both engineering and social impacts. Economic impacts (IMP5) include enhanced competitiveness in civil engineering and green construction, and reduced risks for critical infrastructures. Societal impacts (IMP6) include reducing indirect costs, raising public awareness of climate impacts, and supporting better adaptation decisions, including potential reductions in insurance costs.
To ensure further uptake and success, key needs include continued research and demonstration, expanding market access and collaboration. Broadening engagement through public awareness and capacity-building initiatives will be crucial for achieving widespread adoption and long-term impact.

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