A Powers Ontology for Causal Models

Project Information

POCAM

Grant agreement ID: 101106919

DOI

10.3030/101106919

Project terminated on 13 December 2024

EC signature date 21 April 2023

Start date 4 September 2023

End date 3 September 2025

Funded under

• Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)

Total cost

No data

EU contribution

€ 189 687,36

Coordinated by

FREIE UNIVERSITAET BERLIN
Germany

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - POCAM (A Powers Ontology for Causal Models)

Reporting period: 2023-09-04 to 2025-09-03

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

POCAM aims to provide for the first time a unified ontology, within the framework of a powers metaphysics, for explaining the success of three kinds of causal modelling technique: Structural Equations Models, Fault Tree Analyses, and Petri Nets. While these techniques are both diverse and pervasive in the applied sciences, no attempt has been made to draw a connection between them all and an underlying metaphysics of causal relations. Dr Toby Friend’s expertise in the metaphysics of causation and background in engineering will enable the innovation of a novel ontology within the powers framework which can fill this lacuna. In developing the new ontology, Dr Friend will bring philosophical scrutiny to the causal modelling techniques thereby illuminating what it is in the world which unifies and explains their practical success. POCAM will also facilitate a better translation between the ‘scientific image’ of causation explicated in these highly formal techniques and the ‘manifest image’ of causation we engage with as human agents. This ground-breaking research will be carried out at Freie Universität Berlin under the supervision of Professor Dr Barbara Vetter, a world-leader in powers metaphysics. The research will also receive the advice of Professor Dr Katinka Wolter, an expert on Petri Nets and Fault Tree Analysis, and Professor Dr Beate Krickel, an expert on philosophical applications of Structural Equations Models. With this research Dr Friend will also establish himself as a promising candidate for permanent academic roles in Europe.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

Objective 1 was to determine the internal ontology of three case studies (SEMs, FTAs and Petri Nets). There was some progress made regarding the internal ontology for SEMs, and attendance with the reading group on counterfactuals at my mentor’s Human Abilities project facilitated this significantly. Overall, I was not able to reach firm conclusions within the timeframe.

Objective 2 was to identify compatibility of the identified internal ontologies with a powers-framework. Much of this work involved investigation of state-of-the-art views on powers. I was able to come to firm conclusions about what approaches would be promising candidates for accounting, in particular, for causal modelling techniques involving counterfactual reasoning. The main findings involved the delineation of two kinds of powers views: those oriented towards underlying robust counterfactual facts and those not. This marked significant progress. Some of this work was presented at colloquia at the Human Abilities project, at the Thinking and Talking about Time and Change conference December 2023, and Powers, Causation and Modality conference May 2024.

Due to the early termination of the project, Objective 3—to develop an ultimate ontology for the three case studies—was not begun.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

POCAM had a number of impact objectives, some of which were achieved in the time the project was running. The enhancement of career objective (2.1 Annex 1) was achieved by securing a tenure-track position, though this was not in Europe as initially proposed.

The dissemination plan was actioned successfully (2.2 Annex 1). I gave multiple presentations of ongoing work at conferences including BJPS and SMS. Audience participation was significant on both occasions. I also submitted to multiple journals and was successful in publishing two articles (so far) for the project. It was also an aim to present at FUB’s colloquia, which I was able to do twice. I also co-organised a workshop on the themes related to the project which was attended by multiple international philosophy professors and graduate students at FU. Unfortunately, there was limited uptake from non-philosophy fields. I did not write any blog posts for the project during the time it was running, nor did I manage to run the informal series on topics in causation. The ideas for this course will feed into a possible graduate course at my new institution.

Since I had secured a tenure-track position, there was less pressure to source further funding after POCAM was completed, so I did not pursue these. There was, also, more limited contact made with industry, as I had hoped. This was inevitable given the poor communication with my scientific adviser

I was supervised by my mentor through weekly informal chats at colloquia meetings and four times at one-on-one meetings. A key outcome of the latter was the completion of an article ‘Comparative dispositions’ that is currently under review.