Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CLIMSATE (Dependency of future climate projections on South Atlantic heat and salt transport modulated by interocean exchanges)
Reporting period: 2024-01-01 to 2025-12-31
The world's climate hinges on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for heat redistribution between hemispheres. Changes in the AMOC are a cause for concern: they represent uncertainty for future climate projections. While researchers have long focused on the Northern Hemisphere’s oceanic changes when studying AMOC shifts, evidence points to the significance of Southern Hemisphere origins, specifically in the South Atlantic. The overall goal of the CLIMSATE project has been to unravel how future climate projections are linked to the South Atlantic’s heat and salt transports and their modulation through exchange processes with the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
The project goal has been addressed by the development of an advanced framework for analyzing South Atlantic transports based on virtual particle tracking methods and applying it to a representative ensemble of numerical models currently used for future climate projections. Specifically, a respective python code package has been developed, the project has been presented at international meetings, and a manuscript containing the results from the climate model analyses is in preparation. Moreover, project-related work contributed to three collaborative manuscripts (2 of them already submitted, one in preparation).
The results have revealed substantial discrepancies in the representation of inter-ocean exchanges in climate models and reanalysis products that can aid future climate assessments, in particular for Europe. As such, the project results contribute to the missions ‘Adaptation to climate change’ and ‘Healthy oceans’ of Horizon Europe. Moreover, by improving international collaborations and introducing a South Atlantic session at the EGU General Assembly, the project has contributed to increasing awareness for South Atlantic research.