Periodic Reporting for period 1 - RE-ENGAGE (Re-Engaging with Neighbours in a State of War and Geopolitical Tensions)
Reporting period: 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31
The RE-ENGAGE project (Re-engaging with neighbours in a state of war and geopolitical tensions) examines the EU’s engagement with its neighbours and support for democratisation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reshaped European security concerns, necessitating a re-evaluation of the EU’s enlargement and neighbourhood policies. Through rigorous research, RE-ENGAGE provides evidence-based recommendations on how the EU can refine its policies to support democratic resilience and counter external interference. The project focuses on three core objectives. First, it seeks to strengthen the EU’s enlargement process by assessing how democratic transitions in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe can be more effectively supported. This includes analyzing existing policy instruments and identifying ways to enhance EU credibility and influence. Second, it provides geopolitical forecasts and scenario analyses, shedding light on the ambitions of external actors such as Russia, China, and Turkey, whose influence shapes regional stability. Third, RE-ENGAGE explores how the EU can bolster its resilience against hybrid threats, including misinformation campaigns, economic coercion, and other destabilising tactics. By equipping policymakers with strategic knowledge, the project ensures that the EU’s foreign policy remains adaptable. Its findings contribute to refining the enlargement process while strengthening the EU’s broader defence against hybrid and military threats. In an era of uncertainty, fostering stable and democratic governance in neighbouring regions remains a key EU priority, and RE-ENGAGE provides the necessary analytical tools to support this mission.
During its first phase, RE-ENGAGE has made significant progress across multiple research areas. The project has established strong conceptual and methodological foundations, offering a structured framework for studying democracy promotion and resilience in hybrid regimes. These papers clarify key concepts and provide guidelines for the field research component, ensuring a consistent and rigorous approach across case studies. Empirical research and data collection have been integral. A comprehensive literature review has mapped existing studies on democracy promotion, hybrid regimes, and geopolitical influence. Additionally, a stakeholder mapping exercise has been conducted, setting the stage for targeted field research and policy recommendations. Another critical achievement is policy analysis, with background studies on EU policies towards the two regions identifying gaps and opportunities for improvement. These studies assess how EU strategies have evolved and propose ways to enhance their effectiveness in today’s geopolitical landscape. Field research is well underway in Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Serbia. Perception surveys, expert interviews, and focus groups are gathering insights into local attitudes towards democracy, EU engagement, and external actors. These empirical efforts will inform policy recommendations. The project has also prioritised dissemination and outreach, enhancing visibility through an upgraded website, social media platforms, and targeted policy workshops. These efforts ensure that research findings reach policymakers, civil society, and the public. Despite the challenges of ongoing conflicts and shifting geopolitics, RE-ENGAGE remains on track, with all deliverables submitted as planned.
RE-ENGAGE advances knowledge beyond existing research by introducing new theoretical perspectives on hybrid regimes and their susceptibility to external influence. The project refines the understanding of governance structures in transitioning states and their vulnerabilities to non-democratic pressures. A key contribution is its analysis of evolving EU enlargement and democracy promotion models. Previous approaches have struggled to fully grasp hybrid regimes' complexities. RE-ENGAGE critically assesses these limitations and proposes an alternative framework that prioritises resilience-based democracy promotion, emphasizing societal trust as a defence against external pressures and internal instability. The project’s geopolitical analysis integrates foresight techniques and scenario-building, offering a forward-looking perspective on competing actors (e.g. Russia, China, the US, and Turkey). By combining large-scale perception surveys with qualitative case studies, RE-ENGAGE generates rich empirical data capturing the nuances of democratic attitudes and external interventions. A key finding suggests that hybrid regimes require a more adaptive enlargement strategy, one that acknowledges their structural complexities and the role of informal institutions. Furthermore, RE-ENGAGE contributes to policy innovation by identifying gaps in the EU’s approaches. Its research proposes concrete reforms to enhance effectiveness and adaptability, ensuring EU engagement remains robust amid geopolitical uncertainty. A major insight is that EU democracy promotion efforts must move beyond institutional reforms to engage civil society and grassroots actors. This involves fostering trust-based mechanisms that address social fragmentation and enhance public confidence in democratic governance.