Periodic Reporting for period 1 - AgEnRes (AnalysinG of fossil-ENergy dependence in agriculture to increase RESilience against input price fluctuations)
Reporting period: 2024-01-01 to 2025-06-30
The recent variations in the price of fossil fuels and mineral fertilisers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine threaten the incomes of primary producers and affordability of food for consumers. This threat will remain, as it can be expected that prices of fossil fuels and mineral fertilisers will remain volatile and the pathway towards fossil fuel independence and related investments in less fossil-fuel-intensive technologies in the EU agricultural sector will take time. The objective of AgEnRes is to design sustainable pathways for policy making and farmers to reduce direct and indirect dependence on fossil fuels and fertilisers.
AgEnRes sets out five specific objectives:
1. Development of Analytical Tools:
AgEnRes will enhance existing agricultural and energy models (FarmDyn, AgriPoliS, GLOBIOM, OPEN-PROM and GEM-E3) to better capture fossil fuel and fertiliser use and impacts of investments towards less fossil fuel and energy dependency on agricultural production, consumption and income at various scales. The model enhancements and collaboration will be supported by among others data from the EU Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN).
2. Improved Farm-Level Decision-Making:
Ex-post analysis will be conducted to assess differences in use of energy between farms and what could be gained if farms with relative high energy use would adjust their management to their peer farms. Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) will be conducted to give insights into farmers preferences for different types of innovations and willingness to invest in them. A new decision support system (DSS) mobile app will be developed to assist farmers with their own farm management to reduce use of fossil fuel and energy.
3. Enhanced Sector Resilience:
AgEnRes will develop financial risk management tools tailored to farmers’ needs. These tools, tested via experiments and workshops, aim to reduce exposure to energy price fluctuations and improve economic stability in the farming sector.
4. Policy Intervention Design:
Using the enhanced and integrated models and tools, AgEnRes will conduct what-if scenarios and design and test effective policy instruments to mitigate the impact of energy market volatility and to come to sustainable pathways to reduce direct and indirect dependence on fossil fuels and fertilisers in the agricultural sector. Stakeholder involvement ensures that scenarios and assumptions are trusted and grounded in practical realities.
5. Long-Term Governance and Use:
An Exploitation Strategy and Plan (ESP) will be created to ensure the sustainability of the project outcomes, addressing Intellectual Property Rights and enabling future partner inclusion. Collaboration with JRC ensures compatibility with European Commission tools.
Integration of social sciences and humanities
In AgEnRes, researchers from behavioural economics help to better understand farmers cognitive reasoning behind their decisions. AgEnRes works with behavioural economics theories to improve the validity of farm-level models, by accounting for the cognitive and psychological factors that influence farmers' decisions.
AgEnRes sets out five specific objectives:
1. Development of Analytical Tools:
AgEnRes will enhance existing agricultural and energy models (FarmDyn, AgriPoliS, GLOBIOM, OPEN-PROM and GEM-E3) to better capture fossil fuel and fertiliser use and impacts of investments towards less fossil fuel and energy dependency on agricultural production, consumption and income at various scales. The model enhancements and collaboration will be supported by among others data from the EU Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN).
2. Improved Farm-Level Decision-Making:
Ex-post analysis will be conducted to assess differences in use of energy between farms and what could be gained if farms with relative high energy use would adjust their management to their peer farms. Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) will be conducted to give insights into farmers preferences for different types of innovations and willingness to invest in them. A new decision support system (DSS) mobile app will be developed to assist farmers with their own farm management to reduce use of fossil fuel and energy.
3. Enhanced Sector Resilience:
AgEnRes will develop financial risk management tools tailored to farmers’ needs. These tools, tested via experiments and workshops, aim to reduce exposure to energy price fluctuations and improve economic stability in the farming sector.
4. Policy Intervention Design:
Using the enhanced and integrated models and tools, AgEnRes will conduct what-if scenarios and design and test effective policy instruments to mitigate the impact of energy market volatility and to come to sustainable pathways to reduce direct and indirect dependence on fossil fuels and fertilisers in the agricultural sector. Stakeholder involvement ensures that scenarios and assumptions are trusted and grounded in practical realities.
5. Long-Term Governance and Use:
An Exploitation Strategy and Plan (ESP) will be created to ensure the sustainability of the project outcomes, addressing Intellectual Property Rights and enabling future partner inclusion. Collaboration with JRC ensures compatibility with European Commission tools.
Integration of social sciences and humanities
In AgEnRes, researchers from behavioural economics help to better understand farmers cognitive reasoning behind their decisions. AgEnRes works with behavioural economics theories to improve the validity of farm-level models, by accounting for the cognitive and psychological factors that influence farmers' decisions.
The project first established a robust analytical and data foundation. This delivered key inputs including a mapping of relevant EU and national policies, a categorisation of promising energy-saving technologies, and a set of indicators and modelling requirements. To achieve the analytical foundation, three workshops with stakeholders were organised in 2024.
The EU Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) is considered as the basic database. Starting from FADN AgEnRes progressed with the development of three EU-wide databases: one on energy use per farm activity, one on farmers’ risk preferences, and one on technologies to reduce energy use and emissions. These databases underpin the modelling and assessment work in AgEnRes.
Ex-post analysis of fossil energy dependence and price volatility impacts have been initiated, with preliminary work on energy efficiency metrics and shadow pricing. Surveys have been launched into farmer behaviour, preferences, and risk management strategies. The surveys are based on Best Practices and State-of-the art in the relevant research areas. This is achieved via extensive literature reviews and applying referenced and most recent and successful methodologies. So far AgEnRes produced two systematic literature reviews on risk behaviour and farmers’ preferences. Early-stage work on a decision support system (DSS) was also undertaken.
The development of the AgEnRes model toolbox is underway, focusing on expanding farm models and Agent Based Models (ABMs) to other countries and regions and full integration of the agricultural sector in the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) applied by AgEnRes. Fossil fuel and energy saving potentials, costing data and structural change impacts of existing and new technologies in aggregated EU and world- wide models will be updated from the ABMs and farm level model applications. Storylines are under development to explain how policies or events affect prices of fossil fuels and how this will affect key output indicators as adoption and investments in fossil fuel and energy saving technologies, energy use, farm income, number of farms, production and consumption of agricultural inputs and outputs, LULUC, emissions, agricultural trade and employment.AgEnRes is actively collaborating with sister projects as BEATLES, ENFASYS, Prudent and HarvRESt. As a specific example a follow up meeting is planned with the HarvRESt team to discuss Best Practices to model biogas production on the farm. AgEnRes also participates in the Area Zero cluster (https://areazerocluster.eu/(opens in new window)). Projects within the Area Zero cluster support each other with the exchange of good data and model practices and knowledge exchange of public insights.
The EU Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) is considered as the basic database. Starting from FADN AgEnRes progressed with the development of three EU-wide databases: one on energy use per farm activity, one on farmers’ risk preferences, and one on technologies to reduce energy use and emissions. These databases underpin the modelling and assessment work in AgEnRes.
Ex-post analysis of fossil energy dependence and price volatility impacts have been initiated, with preliminary work on energy efficiency metrics and shadow pricing. Surveys have been launched into farmer behaviour, preferences, and risk management strategies. The surveys are based on Best Practices and State-of-the art in the relevant research areas. This is achieved via extensive literature reviews and applying referenced and most recent and successful methodologies. So far AgEnRes produced two systematic literature reviews on risk behaviour and farmers’ preferences. Early-stage work on a decision support system (DSS) was also undertaken.
The development of the AgEnRes model toolbox is underway, focusing on expanding farm models and Agent Based Models (ABMs) to other countries and regions and full integration of the agricultural sector in the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) applied by AgEnRes. Fossil fuel and energy saving potentials, costing data and structural change impacts of existing and new technologies in aggregated EU and world- wide models will be updated from the ABMs and farm level model applications. Storylines are under development to explain how policies or events affect prices of fossil fuels and how this will affect key output indicators as adoption and investments in fossil fuel and energy saving technologies, energy use, farm income, number of farms, production and consumption of agricultural inputs and outputs, LULUC, emissions, agricultural trade and employment.AgEnRes is actively collaborating with sister projects as BEATLES, ENFASYS, Prudent and HarvRESt. As a specific example a follow up meeting is planned with the HarvRESt team to discuss Best Practices to model biogas production on the farm. AgEnRes also participates in the Area Zero cluster (https://areazerocluster.eu/(opens in new window)). Projects within the Area Zero cluster support each other with the exchange of good data and model practices and knowledge exchange of public insights.
To achieve its objectives AgEnRes is proactively keeping track of Best Practices and State-of-the art in the relevant research areas. This is achieved via extensive literature reviews and applying referenced and most recent and successful methodologies. So far this has resulted in the following list of key outputs:
• A comprehensive mapping of relevant energy and climate policies
• Identification and categorisation of promising technologies for energy efficiency
• EU-wide databases on farm energy use, risk parameters, and costs and mitigation potential of innovative fossil fuel and energy saving technologies
• Analytical frameworks and behavioural insights into farmers’ decisions regarding fertiliser use and price risk
• Early integration of behavioural models into farm-level and macroeconomic modelling tools
• A comprehensive mapping of relevant energy and climate policies
• Identification and categorisation of promising technologies for energy efficiency
• EU-wide databases on farm energy use, risk parameters, and costs and mitigation potential of innovative fossil fuel and energy saving technologies
• Analytical frameworks and behavioural insights into farmers’ decisions regarding fertiliser use and price risk
• Early integration of behavioural models into farm-level and macroeconomic modelling tools