U-space Air and Ground Risk modEls Enhancement

Project Information

U-AGREE

Grant agreement ID: 101167187

DOI

10.3030/101167187

EC signature date 26 June 2024

Start date 1 September 2024

End date 28 February 2027

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

€ 1 018 053,75

EU contribution

€ 953 553,75

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITAT POLITECNICA DE VALENCIA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - U-AGREE (U-space Air and Ground Risk modEls Enhancement)

Reporting period: 2024-09-01 to 2025-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The rapid growth of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and their expected integration into urban and peri-urban environments pose new challenges in terms of safety, security, privacy, and social acceptance. Existing risk assessment frameworks, such as SORA, provide a foundation for authorising UAS operations, but they require further refinement to capture the complexity of new scenarios, including urban air mobility (UAM) and operations supported by U-space services.

U-AGREE addresses this challenge by enhancing and integrating air, ground, and collision risk models into a comprehensive framework for UAS risk assessment. The project develops representative operational scenarios (e.g. flights over populated areas, inspections of critical infrastructures, operations in vertiports) and analyses the hazards associated with these operations. Based on this foundation, U-AGREE builds improved quantitative risk models, assesses how U-space services can mitigate those risks, and formulates proposals to adapt the SORA methodology accordingly.

The overall objective of U-AGREE is to provide robust, evidence-based models that support safe and efficient deployment of UAS and UAM in Europe. By linking risk modelling with regulatory needs, the project contributes to faster and more reliable approval of UAS operations, improved safety for people on the ground and in the air, and better alignment between technological innovation and regulatory frameworks.

In this way, U-AGREE supports the SESAR 3 JU flagship on “Innovative Air Mobility”, providing tools that enable European regulators, service providers, and industry stakeholders to anticipate risks, design effective mitigations, and build public trust in the safe integration of drones and emerging air mobility solutions.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

During the first reporting period, U-AGREE successfully launched its activities and delivered the first set of scientific and technical results. The work has primarily focused on defining representative operational scenarios, identifying hazards, and developing the initial versions of the risk models that form the backbone of the project.

Within WP2 (Concept formulation), the consortium identified and refined a minimum set of three representative scenarios (e.g. UAS operations over populated areas, along linear infrastructures, and in vertiports) through workshops with stakeholders and inputs from the Advisory Board. These scenarios and their associated hazards were consolidated in the Initial Concept Outline, establishing the foundation for subsequent modelling activities.

In WP3 (Risk models), the team developed the initial versions of the air, ground, and collision risk models. These models extend and improve the SORA framework by quantifying the severity and likelihood of UAS-related risks, including mid-air collisions and ground impacts, and by considering new aspects such as privacy, security, and environmental effects.

Progress in WP4 (U-space Mitigation barriers characterisation) included the characterisation of the first set of strategic and tactical U-space services that act as risk mitigation barriers, documented in the Initial Barriers Characterisation. This provides the methodological link between risk models and the operational benefits of U-space.

Finally, in WP5 (Concept evaluation), the consortium defined the Exploratory Research Plan, which sets out the methodology, tools, and validation approach for evaluating the integrated risk models through simulations in the next reporting period.

These achievements ensure that U-AGREE is well on track to deliver its objectives, providing regulators and stakeholders with robust, evidence-based models to support safe and efficient integration of drones and urban air mobility in Europe.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

During the first reporting period, U-AGREE has already achieved results that go beyond the current state of the art in the field of UAS risk assessment and U-space integration.

Extension of the SORA framework: The initial air, ground, and collision risk models expand the SORA methodology by incorporating new dimensions of risk such as privacy, security, and environmental impact. This goes beyond the traditional safety-only focus of existing models.

Scenario-based approach for U-space: The project consolidated three representative scenarios that capture the diversity and complexity of real-world drone operations (urban, rural/linear infrastructures, and vertiport environments). Unlike previous generic approaches, these scenarios provide a concrete and validated reference framework for modelling and simulation activities.

Integration of U-space mitigation barriers: The Initial Barriers Characterisation introduced a structured methodology to connect U-space services (e.g. conformance monitoring, separation management) with their quantitative risk reduction effect. This constitutes a novel link between operational services and safety performance indicators.

Evaluation methodology: With the Exploratory Research Plan, the project defined a reproducible validation pathway combining advanced simulation tools, large-scale trajectory datasets, and Monte Carlo methods. This structured approach ensures traceability from theoretical models to operational performance assessment, an aspect rarely formalised in prior exploratory projects.

Together, these outcomes position U-AGREE at the forefront of research on drone safety and U-space integration, offering the first steps towards harmonised, quantitative risk models that can directly inform European regulation and standardisation.