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mega-thRust Earthquake SystEm Theory

Project description

Paradigm shift for earthquake observation and quantification

Fault, plate tectonic and mantle motions together determine where and when large earthquakes near population centres will occur. Correctly understanding and quantifying locations, and maybe even timing, of major earthquakes can be vital in limiting the impact of large-scale disasters. Unfortunately, current satellite observations and models that track slip buildup and release from tectonics and mantle motions often overlook key mechanics and data, leading to miscalculations in subduction zones and seismic risk. The ERC-funded RESET project aims to enhance understanding of earthquake systems and processes while developing an innovative, critical approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This concept will provide scientists and engineers with the tools to interpret observations and quantify future seismic activity.

Objective

Plate tectonics and mantle convection drive motions and slip buildup along plate boundaries. The locations where slip will be released during earthquakes are inferred from satellite observations. However, inversions ignore plate tectonic and mantle mechanics and much of the available data. Recent vertical velocities suggest megathrust earthquakes in subduction zones could rupture twice closer or farther from the coast. That could make the difference between shock and world-class disaster for one third of the world’s population. To set this straight and unlock earthquake sciences, I propose a paradigm shift by imaging, quantifying and understanding processes as part of an earthquake system. This multi-scale plate tectonic concept couples novel and known interactions between subducting and overriding plates, mantle and the megathrust from milli-seconds to millions of years.

Imaging this multi-scale, visco-elasto-plastic system poses a major computational challenge that I will tackle by adapting the latest computer science advances in automatic differentiation and high-performance computing on graphical processing units to earthquake sequences. Adjoint-based slip and medium inversions and an Ensemble Kalman Smoother will assimilate all observations into physical system models. Application and validation in five natural laboratories will quantify system processes, which will be integrated into a unified theory quantifying surface velocities with time.

This integrative approach allows for the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on first physical principles. RESET’s Earthquake System concept, methods and theory will equip solid Earth scientists with what is needed to explain recent observations and enable efficient, system-based quantification of future seismicity.

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HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) ERC-2024-COG

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Host institution

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 2 492 625,00
Address
HEIDELBERGLAAN 8
3584 CS Utrecht
Netherlands

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 2 492 625,00

Beneficiaries (1)

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