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Mathematical Modeling of Marine Ecosystems in a sustainable development perspective: model development, parameterization and simplification using data assimilation


The main objective of the project is to conceptualize tractable and reliable marine ecosystem models that can be coupled with a 3D high resolution hydrodynamical model for long time simulations in a sustainable development perspective. These models will be derived from complex validated ecosystem models. The study will be performed in two test areas: the Black Sea and the Ligurian Sea for which large data bases are available for model validation and for the application of data assimilation techniques. One i mportant task will be to compare the performance of a classic NAPZD (Nitrate, Ammonium, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Detritus) model (often used in 3D simulations) with optimized parameters with a simplified ecosystem model thoroughly derived from a validat ed and calibrated complex ecosystem model. The essential of the project will be devoted to examine the impact of data assimilation technique in improving parameterization of ecosystem model and their predictions. Expected Results :A better assessment of t he usefulness and applicability of some data assimilation techniques in improving the predictions of marine biogeochemical models.. To assess how a Kalman Filter can be used to identify the deficiencies of simplified models compared to complex models. A be tter assessment of the performance of NAPZD-type biogeochemical models with and without data assimilation. A simplified ecosystem model derived from a complex one which can be coupled with a 3D hydrodynamical model for scenarios testing.A better understand ing and knowledge of the functioning and of the complex dynamics of marine ecosystems as well as of the impact of different factors on their preservation and stability. Estimation of some important global variables (e.g carbon sequestration, volume of anox ic waters, total denitrification) and processes (e.g. exchange with the sediments, nitrogen and carbon cycling, limitation by silicate) in the different environments under study.

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