Extreme Events: Causes and Consequences

Objective

Extreme events are a key manifestation of complex systems, in both the natural and human world. Their economic and social consequences are a matter of enormous concern. Much of science has concentrated, until recently, on understanding the mean behavior of physical, biological or social systems and their "normal" variability. Extreme events, due to their rarity, have been hard to study and even harder to predict. We propose to develop methods for the description, understanding and prediction of extreme events across a range of natural and socio-economic phenomena. General tools will be developed to extract the distribution of these events from existing data sets. Models that are anchored in complex-systems concepts will be constructed to incorporate a priori knowledge about the phenomena and to reproduce the data-derived distribution of events. These models will then be used to predict the likelihood of extreme events in prescribed time intervals. The methodology will be applied to three sets of pr oblems: (i) natural disasters from the realms of hydrology, seismology, and geomorphology; (ii) socio-economic crises, including those associated with criminality, mass violence, and terrorism; and (iii) rapid, and possibly catastrophic, changes in the interaction between economic activity and climate variability. The proposing team brings together expertise in various branches of the theory of nonlinear and complex systems, as well as in the application areas envisaged. Most importantly, it has a tru ly interdisciplinary, problem-oriented outlook. The work plan has been designed to integrate the expertise across the team and to provide problem-specific, as well as general results that will considerately strengthen the European Research Area in its " tackling complexity in science."

Fields of science

• natural sciences › earth and related environmental sciences › physical geography › natural disaster
• natural sciences › earth and related environmental sciences › geology › geomorphology
• social sciences › sociology › governance › crisis management

Programme(s)

• FP6-POLICIES - Policy support: Specific activities covering wider field of research under the Focusing and Integrating Community Research programme 2002-2006.

Topic(s)

• NEST-2003-1 - Adventure activities

Call for proposal

FP6-2003-NEST-PATH
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

STREP - Specific Targeted Research Project

Coordinator

ECOLE NORMALE SUPERIEURE

Address

45 Rue D'ulm
Paris
France

Participants (15)

CENTRE D'ETUDES DE POPULATIONS, DE PAUVRETE ET DE POLITIQUES, SOCIO-ECONOMIQUES

Luxembourg

Address

Rue Emile Mark 44, B.p.48
Differdange

CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE

France

Address

3, Rue Michel-ange
Paris

COMMISSARIAT À L'ÉNERGIE ATOMIQUE

France

Address

31/33 Rue De La Fédération
Paris

CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE

Italy

Address

P.le Aldo Moro 7
Roma

INSTITUT DE PHYSIQUE DU GLOBE DE PARIS

France

Address

Place Jussieu 4
Paris

INSTITUT ROYAL METEOROLOGIQUE DE BELGIQUE

Belgium

Address

Avenue Circulaire, 3
Brussels

INSTITUTE OF GEODYNAMICS OF THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY

Romania

Address

19-21 J.l.calderon Str
Bucharest

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Russia

Address

Warshavskoye Sh. 79, Bldg. 2
Moscow

KING'S COLLEGE LONDON

United Kingdom

Address

Strand
London

SOCIETE DE MATHEMATIQUES APPLIQUEES ET DE SCIENCES HUMAINES

France

Address

20 Rue Rosenwald
Paris

UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA "LA SAPIENZA"

Italy

Address

Piazzale Aldo Moro 5
Roma

UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO

Italy

Address

Via Verdi 8
Torino

UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG

Germany

Address

Edmund-siemers-allee 1
Hamburg

UNIVERSITAET POTSDAM

Germany

Address

Am Neuen Palais 10
Potsdam

UNIVERSITE DE LIEGE

Belgium

Address

Place Du 20 Août, 7
Liege