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Extreme Events: Causes and Consequences

Objective

Extreme events are a key manifestation of complex systems, in both the natural and human world. Their economic and social consequences are a matter of enormous concern. Much of science has concentrated, until recently, on understanding the mean behavior of physical, biological or social systems and their "normal" variability. Extreme events, due to their rarity, have been hard to study and even harder to predict. We propose to develop methods for the description, understanding and prediction of extreme events across a range of natural and socio-economic phenomena. General tools will be developed to extract the distribution of these events from existing data sets. Models that are anchored in complex-systems concepts will be constructed to incorporate a priori knowledge about the phenomena and to reproduce the data-derived distribution of events. These models will then be used to predict the likelihood of extreme events in prescribed time intervals. The methodology will be applied to three sets of pr oblems: (i) natural disasters from the realms of hydrology, seismology, and geomorphology; (ii) socio-economic crises, including those associated with criminality, mass violence, and terrorism; and (iii) rapid, and possibly catastrophic, changes in the interaction between economic activity and climate variability. The proposing team brings together expertise in various branches of the theory of nonlinear and complex systems, as well as in the application areas envisaged. Most importantly, it has a tru ly interdisciplinary, problem-oriented outlook. The work plan has been designed to integrate the expertise across the team and to provide problem-specific, as well as general results that will considerately strengthen the European Research Area in its " tackling complexity in science."

Call for proposal

FP6-2003-NEST-PATH
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Coordinator

ECOLE NORMALE SUPERIEURE
Address
45 Rue D'ulm
Paris
France

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Participants (15)

CENTRE D'ETUDES DE POPULATIONS, DE PAUVRETE ET DE POLITIQUES, SOCIO-ECONOMIQUES
Luxembourg
Address
Rue Emile Mark 44, B.p.48
Differdange

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CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE
France
Address
3, Rue Michel-ange
Paris

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COMMISSARIAT À L'ÉNERGIE ATOMIQUE
France
Address
31/33 Rue De La Fédération
Paris

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CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE
Italy
Address
P.le Aldo Moro 7
Roma

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INSTITUT DE PHYSIQUE DU GLOBE DE PARIS
France
Address
Place Jussieu 4
Paris

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INSTITUT ROYAL METEOROLOGIQUE DE BELGIQUE
Belgium
Address
Avenue Circulaire, 3
Brussels

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INSTITUTE OF GEODYNAMICS OF THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY
Romania
Address
19-21 J.l.calderon Str
Bucharest

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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Russia
Address
Warshavskoye Sh. 79, Bldg. 2
Moscow

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KING'S COLLEGE LONDON
United Kingdom
Address
Strand
London

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SOCIETE DE MATHEMATIQUES APPLIQUEES ET DE SCIENCES HUMAINES
France
Address
20 Rue Rosenwald
Paris

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Links
UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA "LA SAPIENZA"
Italy
Address
Piazzale Aldo Moro 5
Roma

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UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO
Italy
Address
Via Verdi 8
Torino

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UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG
Germany
Address
Edmund-siemers-allee 1
Hamburg

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UNIVERSITAET POTSDAM
Germany
Address
Am Neuen Palais 10
Potsdam

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UNIVERSITE DE LIEGE
Belgium
Address
Place Du 20 Août, 7
Liege

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