Constraints on the recurrence times and the potential sizes of earthquakes on a fault are crucial prerequisites for seismic hazard assessment. The recovery of fault strength as well as changes in effective stress after a large earthquake depend on the tim e-evolution of the hydraulic, frictional, creep and poroelastic properties of the healing fault zone. The underlying physical and chemical processes determine how long it will take for different parts of the fault to reach failure again, thus controlling b oth the timing and size of the next rupture. To investigate this, we will conduct forward modelling of the hydraulic and strength properties of fault zones during the interseismic period using a Bayesian methodology. By implementing constitutive relationsh ips based on laboratory data, and knowing the associated uncertainties, we will achieve a new measure of robustness in process-based deterministic fault models. However, existing experimental data are rarely adequate to completely define the behaviour of a given fault gouge composition under the hot, wet conditions relevant to crustal fault zones. We will therefore work in collaboration with a European center for high temperature rock and fault mechanics, to develop experiments best suited for our modelling .Working at the IPG Strasbourg will enable me to join a geophysics institute committed to the study of earthquakes and actively participating in European projects. In addition, working with Utrecht will give me additional training in rock deformation exper iments. My career opportunities will thus be significantly broadened.The project will provide the EU with the first effort to develop a process-based fault model fully using today's experimental capabilities. Contrary to previous numerical models based on purely empirical relationships, ours will make use of in situ measurements of fault properties. Such an integrative tool will benefit seismic hazard-assessment projects in Europe, in Turkey, and beyond.'
Field of science
- /natural sciences/chemical sciences/analytical chemistry/quantitative analysis
- /natural sciences/mathematics/applied mathematics/numerical analysis
Call for proposal
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