Skip to main content

Do Forecasts Matter? Early Warnings and the Prevention of Armed Conflict

Objective

What impact do forecasts have on political action? How are they communicated, perceived and used in order to prevent harmful events in the future? There are few policy areas as dependent on good forecasts as efforts aimed at preventing intra-state violent conflicts. Both practitioners and scholars agree that early, appropriate and sustained action on the part of various international players can help to avoid or at least alleviate many of the harmful consequences. Preventing the outbreak of such conflicts has increasingly become a priority objective of the European Union and its most influential member states. But there is a curious gap in the literature with respect to the exact linkage between early warning and political response: under what conditions do forecasts of impending conflicts lead to political action? The first objective of the project is to better understand the interplay of communication and political perception of early warnings about impending intra-state armed conflict. In a second step, the project will compare the findings about early warnings regarding armed conflict to insights about the impact of forecasts in other policy-areas such as adjusting to impending environmental and economic crises. Thus, the project aims to contribute to improving public policy by analysing the interplay of forecasting, advocacy and preventive decision-making.

Field of science

  • /social sciences/political science/political policy/public policy
  • /social sciences/political science/political transitions/armed conflicts

Call for proposal

ERC-2007-StG
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

ERC-SG - ERC Starting Grant
Leaflet | Map data © OpenStreetMap contributors, Credit: EC-GISCO, © EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries

Host institution

KING'S COLLEGE LONDON
Address
Strand
WC2R 2LS London
United Kingdom
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
EU contribution
€ 754 077
Principal investigator
Christoph Meyer (Dr.)
Administrative Contact
Paul Labbett (Mr.)

Beneficiaries (1)

KING'S COLLEGE LONDON
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 754 077
Address
Strand
WC2R 2LS London
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Principal investigator
Christoph Meyer (Dr.)
Administrative Contact
Paul Labbett (Mr.)