Simulation of Crisis Management Activities

Final Report Summary - SICMA (Simulation of crisis management activities)

Modern crises are progressively changing their character from 'predictable' emergencies capable of being countered with existing crisis management tools and techniques, to unpredictable events for which governments and first responders require new, innovative and affordable solutions. Governments and first responders require new, innovative and affordable solutions to be better prepared before an incident, and to respond more efficiently and effectively during an incident. The use of simulation technologies can offer a big improvement on current practices because it allows the decision makers to evaluate different alternatives not just with static data but with continuously evolving scenarios. Within this context, the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) SICMA Capability project, started in March 2008 to demonstrate if and how an integrated suite of modelling and analysis tools could improve the effectiveness of the decision making process. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the mission area, the critical operational issues and the role of the SICMA project in the depicted context as well as the current achievements.

Project context and objectives:

Context

A crisis can be defined as an event involving major damage and injury to people and property of sufficient magnitude to create a temporary imbalance between the large scale needs of a community and the availability of resources able to provide the emergency care to address these needs.

Moreover a crisis may:

- cross jurisdictional boundaries, resulting in multiple organisations being faced with overlapping responsibilities;
- exceed the capacities of single organisations requiring them to be supported by other organisations that are unfamiliar with the procedures.

As a consequence, the response to a crisis is the result of the activities of:

- different services (e.g. police, medical care, rescue forces, fire fighting, etc.)
- interacting vertically (i.e. with components of the same organisation) and horizontally (i.e. with components of other organisations)
- in a complex environment.

Within this context, the main operational issue lies in the difficulty to have even a rough estimate of how the crisis management system will respond to the crisis and, as a consequence, the impossibility to identify those key leverage points of change that enable the overall system to produce significant shift in its performance.

Several causes of the unpredictability of the response can be identified at different levels:

Service level: The overall response to the crisis will depend not only on the quantity and quality of the individual entities but also largely on how those entities cooperate in harmony with one another through the entire scenario, at national and at trans-national level.

Cross-service level: Although individual service organisation may be quite effective, the system as a whole may experience a significant 'failure to respond' due to a faulty or deficient inter-service interaction.

Context Level: Such complex system of systems made of components strongly interrelated, self-organizing and dynamic will have to operate in a complex environment where the situation evolution will be determined by predictable factors (e.g. responders behaving according to the agreed procedures) to a given extent and will be subject to unpredictable factors (e.g. crowd behaviour, traffic gridlock, human behaviour etc.) otherwise.

Last but not least, during an emergency an organisation responds by performing specific tasks according to defined procedures. The most effective procedures need to be implemented correctly to provide the expected results.

Main objectives

The role of the SICMA project is to demonstrate 'if' and 'how' an integrated suite of modelling and analysis tools providing insights into the collective behaviour of the whole organisation in response to crisis scenarios could improve the effectiveness of the decision making process.

With respect to the four phases the crisis management process is usually divided into (i.e. mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery), the project aims at improving crisis managers decision-making capabilities in the following phases:

- Preparedness: assisting in the identification of: the best way to employ available assets, the limits of the achievable response and the effectiveness of different inter/intra-services cooperation procedures.
- Response: providing a forecast of scenario evolution, proposing doctrine-based solutions and evaluating the effects of alternative decisions.

The main focus will be on the health service response where decision-making support will be provided through the achievement of the following main objectives:

- 'Bottom-up' health service modelling
To provide insights into the collective behaviour of the whole health service system (namely medical and ambulance services) in response to different crisis situations and decision implementations by modelling the behaviour of its components as well as the rules they operate by.

- Procedure support
To make use of state of the art technology to provide the user with the correct procedures to better solve the problem (once the problems to solve and the decisions to make are identified).

- Analysis of the effects of unpredictable factors
To study the effects of unpredictable factors (like human behaviour, size/specifics of the incident) to present to the user a 'distribution' of the effectiveness of a certain 'decision' rather than the effectiveness of that solution deterministically dependent on the preconceived scenario.

The combined effects of the above points will allow to document both the unexpected bad and good things in the organisation(s) thus leading to better responses, fewer unintended consequences and greater consensus on important decisions.

Project results:

The project's main result is a software prototype composed of the following main components:

Modeling and simulation (M&S) tools able to simulate:
- the scenario context evolution;
- the activities and interactions of the health service components;
- the effects of the interactions of the health service with the other organizations;
- the effects of inter-nations cooperation (e.g. availability of additional resources).

The graphical user interface (GUI) providing the user with the services needed to: generate a scenario, run a simulation and browse the results.

The tools suite including all the tools developed to support the user in the different phases of the crisis management process: training, contingency planning and response.

The integration infrastructure that is the 'glue' allowing all the components to interoperate while granting the architecture with characteristics of: modularity, flexibility and reuse.

The SICMA prototype distributed architecture is composed of:

- integration infrastructure;
- GUI;
- simulation component;
- SICMA modules.

The integration infrastructure is the 'glue' allowing all the components to interoperate while granting the architecture with characteristics of: modularity, flexibility and reuse. The core of the integration infrastructure is a web server developed in php5, one of the most widely-used general-purpose object-oriented scripting language that is especially suited for web development and can be embedded into HTML. The web server grants access to the implemented services to any application implementing the standard SOAP protocol.

The web based GUI allows the users to exploit the system functionalities with different hardware (hand-held, laptop, desktop etc.) and from different location (e.g. the accident location, the police head quarter etc). It makes use of an embedded map, provided by Google services, allowing the user to place objects on the map and interact with them.

The GUI makes a large use of AJAX philosophy that is the web development technique used for creating interactive web applications or rich Internet applications. The AJAX engine located on the client, ensures faster response from the lighter web server. The AJAX engine changes the HTML DOM of the page (using, if needed, a background server interaction), thus reducing web traffic and resulting in an intuitive and easy-to-use interface.

Finally, the simulation component and the HLA federation, will support both the user decision making process (allowing to simulate the context evolution, and to perform a statistical analysis of the simulation results) and the procedure implementation training.

The SICMA prototype proposes three different modes of operation to support the user in the preparedness and response phases.

Contingency mode: This mode of operation is used to support contingency planning activity of anti-crisis services for an hypothetical crisis situation. The planner is provided with a rough estimation of the results achievable with his plan. This allows him to identify the best way to employ available assets, the limits of the achievable response and the effectiveness of different inter-/intra-services cooperation procedures.

Response mode: this mode of operation is used to help local commanders of anti-crisis services to make better decisions in case of a real crisis situation in progress. The decision support is provided in the form of what-if analysis and in form of guide to help the user in the implementation of the correct procedure.

The two different kinds of support provided are detailed hereafter:

What-if analysis support: A typical session of a response mode with a what-if analysis request is composed of the following steps:

1. the user defines a scenario;
2. the real time simulator (RTS) starts playing the user defined scenario;
3. the decision maker assists to the scenario evolution on the RTS GUI;
4. if the medical service manager (or ambulance service manager) needs support to evaluate the most effective plan (regulation or evacuation plan), he will ask for the what-if analysis;
5. the decision support simulator will propose a casualties regulation plan (or a casualty evacuation plan);
6. the medical service manager (or ambulance service manager) can accept the proposed plan or modify it;
7. the RTS implements the evacuation plan coming from the decisions of the medical and ambulance service managers and provides the final reports.

Procedure support: This is an application able to guide the user in the implementation of the correct procedure. A procedure is presented as a series of executable instructions which the user can interact with. The procedure support tool running in response mode can be deployed on a wide variety of computing devices.

Training mode: Aim of this mode of operation is to train the user in the following:

1. Making use of the SICMA system. Through a web based system the trainee can access SICMA training programmes, classroom and online events, e-learning programs, and SICMA training contents.
2. Making decisions. Through this functionality the trainee learns how to make the correct decisions according to the correct doctrine and to the assumptions of the predefined exercise's scenario.
3. Implementing the correct procedure. Through this functionality the trainee learns how to follow the correct step-by-step procedure according to the assumptions of the predefined exercise's scenario.

Evaluation of the prototype

The results of the project has been tested and validated through the development of an integrated proof of concept experiment. The experiment has been based on a relevant scenario involving an event having international relevance and thus requiring cross-national cooperation and coordination of emergency services.

The evaluation of the final demonstration exercise has been supported by a questionnaire with observations, appraisals and evaluation of:

- communication, information processing, decision making and task fulfillment of the involved health services in critical incidents management;
- decision making taking into account unpredictable factors (e.g. mass behavior, weather).

The user feedbacks gathered during the final demonstration has been a very important part of the overall evaluation of the SICMA symposium and of the prototype demonstrated. Numerous comments, notes from interviews and discussions were also regarded in this evaluation. The ratings generally has been very positive with almost no serious critique.

Also a verbal assessment was given on the innovative character of the SICMA results, and very valuable recommendations for future improvements of the SICMA toolset required advancing it to market maturity. The general feedback of the participants about the final demonstration was that SICMA has produced a set of tools with a high degree of innovation of both: the technologies used and the application of these technologies. Of course they still need further improvement and adaptation to specific customer needs before they can go to the market, but then would have good market chances.

Potential impact:

The SICMA project focused on computer assisted decision making for health service crisis managers. The SICMA project will pursue at the maximum extent the expected impact listed in the first FP7 Security call work programme. More in detail:

The SICMA project aimed at providing an integrated suite of modelling and analysis tools providing insights into the collective behaviour of the whole organisation in response to specific crisis scenarios. The proposed approach had the advantage of documenting both the unexpected bad and good things in the organisation(s) thus leading to better responses (performance), fewer unintended consequences (reliability), faster decision taken according to procedures (speed) and better exploitation of available assets (cost). This approach allows also decision makers to see where the critical issues (bottlenecks and/or overlaps in functionalities) are and to identify those key leverage points of change which enable the overall system to produce significant shift in its performance. Moreover, even if the focus of the project was on the health service, one of the technical objective of the SICMA project has been to develop an integration infrastructure (with characteristics of interoperability, modularity, scalability, ontology agility) in order to allow efficient integration of simulation models / supporting-tools developed or provided by different organisations.

From this point of view, the SICMA prototype will contribute to laid the technological foundation of a computer assisted decision making in the security domain. Taking into consideration that there is not a single policy / organisation / procedure that can be optimal under every conceivable circumstance particular attention has been devoted to the mutual dependency of several factors. As a consequence, one of the objectives of the project has been to study the effects of unpredictable factors (like human behaviour) to present the user with a 'distribution' of the effectiveness of various 'decisions' rather than the effectiveness of a single solution deterministically dependent on the preconceived scenario. Specific focus has been devoted to the:

- analysis and modelling of the impact that the human behaviour will have on the overall response;
- analysis and modelling of the results achievable with existing organisational dynamics (e.g. policies, procedures).

Dissemination

Dissemination has been considered a key issue in SICMA project and a specific work-package has been devoted to such activities. In accordance with the dissemination plan established at the beginning of the project, the following 'actors' have been the beneficiaries of the dissemination activities:

- medical and ambulance service crisis managers, public bodies in charge of cross service level coordination (e.g. civil protection), companies and other organisations that may be end-users of the SICMA solutions and can be interested in results applicable within their business. Activities has included the collection of user requirements, demonstrations of the developed software (to obtain feedback for improvements) and presentations to interested parties for commercial exploitation;
- other (i.e. non-health) service crisis managers, to show the approach and the results achievable (presenting the work done on the health service domain as case study) and to evaluate the possibility of adopting the same approach in their specific application domain;
- industrial manufacturers of command and control equipments, which are interested to integrate some SICMA technical solutions within their products;
- academic communities (students, PhD , professors) spreading the SICMA knowledge to be used in the academic teaching process;
- research communities, including other projects consortia, in order to exchange experience and taking benefit from each other know how.

The main dissemination activities have been performed through the following channels:

Project's website (see http://www.sicmaproject.eu online)

Where the information on the project has been placed and regularly updated. By providing public access to all project reports and results, the website appears as an important tool to promote the project and a delivery mechanism for project developments. Website contains project descriptions, materials and results that facilitate the interest in the project activities. The portal became an important part of the communication plan as it will rapidly allow establishing links with interested parties: partners, users, decision makers. A newsletter has been setup for interested users.

Events:

The international dissemination activities have included the participation to conferences and workshops organised by important international organisations. In addition to the participation to such kind of meetings, a project workshop / seminar has been organised at the end of the project by the SICMA consortium, in order to spread a more targeted and effective dissemination message, accompanied by demonstrations.

Organisations:

Direct dissemination to public and private security stakeholders like security organisations with planning and/or operational responsibility, security researchers, consultants, security-sensitive industries (both, providers of security products and support as well as industries who require major security provisions / investments).

Exploitation:

The use of simulation technologies in the SICMA system can offer a big improvement on current practices in emergency thus leading to better responses, fewer unintended consequences and greater consensus on important decisions.

Taking into account the focus of the project on:

- decision support both prior (i.e. in contingency planning) and after (what-if analysis and procedure implementation) the incident occurrence;
- health service addressing also cooperation with other organisation.

The potential users of the SICMA prototype will be:

- cross-service planning and coordination level;
- medical-service planning and coordination level;
- ambulance-service planning and coordination level.

All the above kind of users can exploit the kind of support achievable with the SICMA prototype at their own service level.

SICMA project results can be exploited by commercializing an industrialised version of the crisis management simulation software in order to provide medical disaster managers (MDMs) a double advantage:

- benefits from a planning tool for the optimisation of the available assets;
- benefits from a decision support tool to be used during the emergency management.

The real time simulator too can be industrialised in order to provide crisis managers, various first responders' organisations and specifically health care services managers a real time simulation tool enabling them to increase their readiness and proficiency in handling health care medical service in crisis situations and saving lives.

Finally, the attention devoted in SICMA to procedure execution and management can be exploited by offering to companies or governmental institutions a consulting service with the support of software tool in the following main areas:

- management of digital repository of anti-crisis procedures;
- validation and optimisation of existing procedures;
- simulation of the effects of taking specific action;
- training for employees.

SICMA website

The SICMA web site (see http://www.sicmaproject.eu online) is the tool through which general information on SICMA project will be made available for dissemination purposes. More in detail, it is, simultaneously, a dissemination tool and a co-operation tool, providing two distinct sets of pages:

- public pages, available for the public in general;
- restricted area, for the purpose of SICMA management (e.g. reporting, document exchange etc.), available to SICMA members only.

In the public section, the following information are available:

- project overview: used to provide general information on the project;
- news and events: used to highlight issues relevant to the project community and the interested public; list relevant events, such as conferences, workshops or meetings;
- partners: detailed information on each member of SICMA, with identification of the responsible person and links to the official member pages, among other information;
- work packages: information on SICMA work packages (e.g. description, partners, people, relevant links etc);
- documents: press releases, presentations, white papers, leaflets or any other public SICMA document;
- consortium area: a link to the restricted area accessible to SICMA members only.

Moreover, the public part allows interested users to subscribe to SICMA newsletter in order to be updated on news and events related to the project.

Point of contact:

For additional information feel free to visit the project website or to contact the project coordinator:
Mr Giuseppe La Posta
SELEX Sistemi Integrati S.p.A.
Via Tiburtina km 12,400 - 0131 Roma
E-mail: glaposta@selex-si.com

Final Report Summary - SICMA (Simulation of crisis management activities)

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