Final Report Summary - SESTI (Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues) Executive Summary:The Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project (SESTI) was started in October 2008. The project aimed at gaining more insight in how weak signal scanning can facilitate policy to better anticipate on emerging future issues. In this project, TNO, AIT, IPTS, MCST and the Dutch Ministry of Education Culture and Science are cooperating in the development of a scientific, but practical approach for early recognition scanning. In the project, the actual scanning for weak signals in a specific domain is combined with the gaining of experience to translate them to the policy community.The overall objective of the SESTI project was to contribute to the development of an effective trans-national system for early identification of weak signals and emerging issues. A system for weak signal collection and translation to emerging issues is set up, with linkages to several national initiatives. But also much emphasis was given to make a scanning approach operational and evaluate the added value to the policy community. The focal areas were Cognitive enhancement, Energy and Healthcare, on which the scanning, processing and dissemination was focuses.The SESTI project covered the comparison of efficiency, effectiveness and appropriateness of different approaches and methods. Particular attention was devoted to (hidden) interests and agendas of different stakeholders putting certain weak signals or emerging issues to the fore. Additionally, the project identified various challenges in combining the various methods and finally elaborates alternative ways of taking advantage of all of them in horizon scanning activities in best meeting the information needs of stakeholders. Furthermore, we explored the possible role and involvement of decision-makers to be ready to act upon the findings of the scanning: What kind of evidence on signals and emerging issues can be presented and in what format? In how far can decision-makers and other stakeholders be engaged in the scanning itself to strengthen the commitment to the findings and what are the most suitable approaches to do that?Within this research project different approaches for scanning, identifying and assessing potential emerging issues have been experimented with. With the scanning for signals, a bi-directional approach was developed 1) Exploratory scanning (looking at a diverging variety of signals and issues) and 2) Issue Centrered Scanning (a converting, approach to assess potential pre-selected emerging issues with signals). It has become clear that the whole process is very complex and embedded within societal constellations. Therefore it is not about the mere looking for 'signals', but far more about grasping the societal contexts behind the whole process of disseminating and "detecting" signals, their evaluation as well as take-up by decision and policy makers. This has also been emphasised within the workshop on methodology where other experts also stated that communicating about the findings is crucial. This also explains the limited usefulness of automated text mining. The quality of the original source proved to be important for the reliability of the processing of information. Overall the conclusion of the SESTI project was that the overload of information from the scanning was a major issue and automated procedures could assist in making this operational. But this needs to be accompanied by experts in order to make the assessment of importance for the target audience. Also the various sources and approaches were not all efficient. Using WIKI is difficult, as well as using manual internet searches. Also it is crucial to integrate the the stakeholder perspective into the approach in order to make the results usefull.Project Context and Objectives:The Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project (SESTI) was started in October 2008. The project aims at gaining more insight in how weak signal scanning can facilitate policy to better anticipate on emerging future issues. In this project, TNO, AIT, IPTS, MCST and the Dutch Ministry of Education Culture and Science are cooperating in the development of a scientific, but practical approach for early recognition scanning. In the project, the actual scanning for weak signals in a specific domain is combined with the gaining of experience to translate them to the policy community.Weak signals are considered interesting for some decades now, but usually the concept is used in the more private domain (e.g. Nokia, BSAF, Volkswagen). In the public domain, the concept is emerging in several levels. The European Commission, but also some national governments (e.g. NL, UK, FIN) and even regional governments (Provence of Overijssel) are exploring the use of weak signals, in order to create a better anticipatory intelligence on disruptive future events like the Credit Crisis. But a sound approach is still very much under construction.The overall objective of the SESTI project is to contribute to the development of an effective trans-national system for early identification of weak signals and emerging issues. A system for weak signal collection and translation to emerging issues is set up, with linkages to several national initiatives. But as said, also much emphasis was given to make a scanning approach operational and evaluate the added value to the policy community. The project had the following underlying objectives:* Develop methods and approaches for identifying "weak signals" and evaluate their usefulness to the policy community;* Create an efficient working tool to share information between the project consortium and the user community;* Track and analyze emerging issues on the "future of research", based on weak signals analysis;* Engage with the user community to provide them with an 'active' stake in the project to ensure use of and long‐term success;* Launch a discussion on emerging issues at EU and national level, as well as linking the actor communities including policy‐makers, strategists and researchers ;* Facilitate the use the project results at European and national level through selective involvement of relevant actors;* Disseminate project results widely to potential users in policy, business and the research community.The SESTI project covered the comparison of efficiency, effectiveness and appropriateness of different approaches and methods. A specific evaluation framework is applied, addressing the needs of both scanning practitioners and decision makers for information about emerging issues. Particular attention was devoted to (hidden) interests and agendas of different stakeholders putting certain weak signals or emerging issues to the fore. Additionally, the project identified various challenges in combining the methods and finally elaborates alternative ways of taking advantage of all of them in horizon scanning activities in best meeting the information needs of stakeholders.Furthermore, we explore the possible role and involvement of decision-makers to be ready to act upon the findings of the scanning: What kind of evidence on signals and emerging issues can be presented and in what format? In how far can decision-makers and other stakeholders be engaged in the scanning itself to strengthen the commitment to the findings and what are the most suitable approaches to do that? In this respect the paper suggests that the selection of the best combination of scanning methods and approaches for policy engagement is subject to contextual issues such as capacities, resources, organisational culture, timeline public awareness and concerns as well as content issues like the potential risks and urgency around the topic examined, purpose and objectives of scanning, depth and width of implicationsDuring the first year of the SESTI project, the concept of weak signals was explored and a first attempt made to make it operational. The consortium has experienced many challenges with the practical side of the concept. The systematic scanning for weak signals proved to be troublesome, as often signals were not really weak and already known. Also a risk of having an overflow of signals proved to be complicating the work. Using both theoretical backgrounds and the practical experience in actual scanning a bi-directional scanning approach was developed: 1) Exploratory scanning 2) Issue Centred Scanning. The outcomes of these two approaches was processed towards emerging issues and their context. In the second year, the focus was on the actual scanning and processing of identified signals, as well as the reflection of the target audience towards the outcomes. Experience was gained looking at different types of sources: WIKI, Conferences, Surveys, Textmining, Manual internet search and Twitter. Based on the outcomes of the scanning/processing, three content oriented workshops were held, according to three different domains: Cognitive Enhancement, Healthcare and Energy. The Cognitive enhancement was chosen as a case to gain practical experience with an emerging issue in order to better understand the practical side of scanning, processing and the user demands:- The outcomes of the case Cognitive Enhancement on one side showed several underlying other emerging issues that are relevant for the policy arena, like ethical issues, promises towards the knowledge economy and a strong need for policy participation on this topic to anticipate on its potential structural impact on the society. Looking at the experience on the method of scanning and user demand, the case showed the need for a more demand driven approach was needed. An important learning aspect was that a more aligned transformation of the messages to the individual policy areas was needed. A more basic issue surfacing was the overwhelming problem of information overload that needed to be addressed, which led to a bi-directional approach to scanning.- The Energy focused scanning led to an overview of limited number of emerging issues that needed to be addressed by the policy arena (Hybrid nuclear energy, Renewable energy from the desert, Biofuels, biomass and biomimicry, Unknown risks of the hydrogen economy, Digging deeper and farther). Discussion among policymakers proved that the issues provided new and interesting developments and opened up the view of policymakers.- Also the scanning on healthcare issues proved to lead to an interesting list of emerging issues: Diversification in medicine, Mental health in an ageing society, Obesity: the global epidemic marches on, Is prevention better than cure?, Personalised treatment. These issues proved to be less interesting, especially because they were not that new. The better use of exploratory scanning outcomes was needed to enhance added value.Next to these domain oriented workshops, a methodological workshop was held. The Cognitive enhancement experiences showed that the processing of signals were complex and there was a need for discussion on the methodological problems. In a workshop with experts from the field, issues were discussed and addressed leading to a reframing of the approach. However, also the observation was that much of the processing was based on expert judgement and limited methodological principles.Within this research project different approaches for scanning, identifying and assessing potential emerging issues have been experimented with. It has become clear that the whole process is very complex and embedded within societal constellations. Therefore it is not about the mere looking for 'signals', but far more about grasping the societal contexts behind the whole process of disseminating and "detecting" signals, their evaluation as well as take-up by decision and policy makers. This has also been emphasised within the workshop on methodology where other experts also stated that communicating about the findings is crucial. This also explains the limited usefulness of automated text mining. The quality of the original source proved to be important for the reliability of the processing of information. As 'signals' are created, disseminated and interpreted by humans, personal interests, selective perception and strategic actions are an inherent element to such processes. These facts need to be taken into account and made as transparent as possible. Another method to counter bias could also be the broadening of ones informant base. Crowdsourcing can be a method to obtain a wider spectrum of information by tapping into networks generated through twitter or blogs, but it needs to be kept in mind that these networks also have their own interest and it can be difficult to motivate people to set up new networks for new purposes, which was concluded upon the limited success with the SESTI-Wiki. Within SESTI, issue centred and exploratory scanning methods have been used. While the issue centred scanning has a more validating character - i.e. providing a plausible narrative for potential emerging issues - the exploratory scanning derived from the opposite logic by obtaining bits and pieces that could be assembled into a larger picture over time. Human intelligence - either as a collective or of single experts - is still necessary since automated text mining and similar tools are not able to grasp contexts. Text mining can be useful, however, for clustering information and visualising networks between topics. In general it can be said that the added value of "emerging issue scans" lies in the strategic combination of all available tools to:- broaden the spectrum of possible signals (e.g. through crowd sourcing like twitter and blogs for exploratory scanning); - improving the credibility assessment (e.g. by establishing interdisciplinary discussion groups for validation); - complementing the validation process (e.g. by performing issue-centred scans, surveys, workshops etc.) - utilising automated tools for clustering and network analysis of issues;- maintaining an interaction between the clients of the analysis (e.g. decision/policy maters) and those who look for the information. - Emerging issue scanning is a social activity and the foresight 'intelligence' is shaped by the perceptions, interests and needs of the people who are involved in the process. Project Results:The main aim of the SESTI project was to enhance the knowledge on how to make the scanning for emerging issues operational. The S&T results are papers and reports:1. Content oriented S&T results Several reports are published concerning the emerging issues in the field of Cognitive Enhancement, Energy and Healthcarea. Workshop reports and underlying background papers on Cognitive Enhancementb. Workshop reports and underlying background papers on Energyc. Workshop reports and underlying background papers on Healthcared. Overall paper on identified emerging issues2. Methodological papers on scanning for emerging issues:a. Conceptual framework paper on scanning: version 1 (start of project), adjusted version 2 (finalization of project);b. Methodology workshop reportc. Report on Processingd. Report on evaluation of approachese. Scientific paper on overall project;f. Scientific paper on processingg. Scientific paper on Exploratory scanningPotential Impact:Having gained more insight in how to practically set up scanning for emerging issues, the study insights can be used to better organise scanning for emerging issues initiatives, increasing the capacity of governmental organisations to anticipate on future developments. As a result Europe can more quickly respond to the changes in society to counteract challenges in a more efficient way and seize the opportunities identified. Especially social issues of tomorrow can be identified in an early stage, increasing the opportunity to address so potential problems are identified before they occur.The actual content outcomes on Cognitive enhancement, Energy and Healthcare are discussed with various policymakers. This information allows them to initiate new discussion on the emerging issues discussed and better anticipate on future developments in the areas. Both national and EU policymakers were present during the workshops.The main dissemination activities were:- The three trans-national policy workshops;- One methodological workshop on processing of signals- Nine newsletters concerning the various topics and results- A project website- Various discussions and presentations within the national and regional governments of the partners on the topics of scanning for emerging issues.- Two presentations during the 2010 FTA conference based on the SESTI project.- Three scientific papers concerning the outcomes of the study (to be published). List of Websites:www.sesti.infomaurits.butter@tno.nl
