Objective This project assembles a new dataset on asset returns in four European countries between 1900 and 1950. Most of the information we have today about the performance of different asset classes comes from relatively 'tranquil', stable periods. Yet what happens to the value of one's savings matters all the more when times are not good, and labor income is low. This is the fundamental insight of the consumption capital asset pricing model. The four countries in this study experienced among them the full range of 'horrors and disasters' that could befall investors. By going beyond published statistics on index values, we will obtain a much more accurate picture of how investors fared. Systematically collecting individual-level return data for four European countries at a time of great turmoil will allow me to address a number of canonical asset pricing puzzles: Why are average returns on stocks so high? Why do bonds generally do so poorly? And why would anyone hold gold, given that the long-run average return is quite low? If the recent literature on pricing assets via their value in 'disaster periods' is right, we should find that holding stocks turned out to be much riskier than normally assumed, based on the standard data sets for rich countries in the last fifty years. The opposite ought to be true for bonds and gold. To find out, I will use a wealth of notarial and bank records, combined with tax-based material, a close reading of the legal literature, and probates, to track as closely as possible how individual investors fared in an age characterized by war, political turmoil, revolution, and expropriation. Fields of science social sciencespolitical sciencespolitical transitionsrevolutions Keywords Asset Returns Crises Disruptions to Civic Order Individual Portfolio Choice and Performance Revolutions War Programme(s) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Topic(s) ERC-AG-ID1 - ERC Advanced Grant Interdisciplinary Panel Call for proposal ERC-2008-AdG See other projects for this call Funding Scheme ERC-AG - ERC Advanced Grant Coordinator UNIVERSIDAD POMPEU FABRA Address Placa de la merce, 10-12 08002 Barcelona Spain See on map Region Este Cataluña Barcelona Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Administrative Contact Eva Martin (Ms.) Principal investigator Hans-Joachim Voth (Prof.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window EU contribution € 2 099 800,00 Beneficiaries (1) Sort alphabetically Sort by EU Contribution Expand all Collapse all UNIVERSIDAD POMPEU FABRA Spain EU contribution € 2 099 800,00 Address Placa de la merce, 10-12 08002 Barcelona See on map Region Este Cataluña Barcelona Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Administrative Contact Eva Martin (Ms.) Principal investigator Hans-Joachim Voth (Prof.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window
