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CROss-DIsciplinary knowledge transfer for improved Natural hazard ASsessment

Final Report Summary - CRODINAS (CROss-DIsciplinary knowledge transfer for improved Natural hazard ASsessment)

The research activity carried out by Università degli Studi di Udine, Italy, St. Petersburg State University, Russian Federation, and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas - CSIC, Spain, in the framework of the CRODINAS project in 2009-2011 has led to a number of peer-reviewed international publications and reports at international conferences. More papers are being prepared; in the summary below, an overview of the main results and conclusions of the project is given with a consideration of their socio-economic value and references to appropriate manuscripts (published or submitted) and conference abstracts. Scientific results of the project include:
1. Theoretical foundations of the event bush (EB) were given in a form allowing application of the method for the needs of natural hazard assessment (Pshenichny et al., 2009; Pshenichny and Kanzheleva, 2011).
2. Application of the EB method was performed for studies of site effects and assessment of physical models in seismology (Carniel et al., 2011), seismite formation (Pshenichny et al., 2012), seismic-related hazard in a volcanic island and hazard mapping (Anokhin et al., 2012), unusual eruptive behaviour of Etna Volcano (Behncke and Pshenichny, 2009). An EB-based conceptual framework for assessment of earthquake intensity in short and long term was suggested with an intention to address the seismicity of Tenerife Island (Pshenichny et al., 2011). The latter result, having largely incorporated many of the above-mentioned, directly corresponds to the project deliverables.
3. An efficient presentation of the EB was achieved in the Colla environment that has allowed to create a powerful and handy tool to manage and convey the scientific knowledge (Pshenichny and Diviacco, 2011).
The main conclusions supported by these results are:
1. Qualitative information of various types and from various sources can be efficiently incorporated into EB (Pshenichny et al., 2009).
2. The rules of formulation of events in the bush make verbal information possibly less clear by intuition but more strict and bias-free. In this way, it can be readily integrated with parameters for quantitative modelling (Pshenichny and Kanzheleva, 2011).
3. Refined verbal formulations may unite different EBs in a number of well-defined ways thus creating multi-bush structures (Pshenichny et al., 2009) that may serve as conceptual frameworks for solving complex problems by means of information modelling (Pshenichny and Kanzheleva, 2011).
4. Conceptual framework for short-term seismic-related hazard assessment includes, among others, a family of EBs describing the physical modelling of site effects and should lead to optimized assessment of earthquake intensity with an account of local geological environment. Cartographically, this should result in improvement of existing maps of seismic zoning (Pshenichny et al., 2011).
5. Conceptual framework for long-term seismic-related hazard assessment includes, among others, a family of EBs describing the geological processes of formation of seismites and should lead to a principally new approach to mapping of geological hazards based on the EB method. Cartographically, this will be expressed in a new generation of hazard maps (Anokhin et al., 2012).
Expected socio-economic impacts of the accomplished research can be summarized as follows.
1. Improved hazard mapping procedure can lead e.g. to optimized evacuation plans for the case of environmental crisis and planning of regional development.
2. Conceptualization of scenarios of seismic-related hazards will urge to critically rethink and improve relevant national and European laws and codes.
3. Presentation of the EBs in the Colla environment will contribute to the establishment of scientific collaboration as well as teaching and popularization of scientific knowledge among the population of the vulnerable regions.
The reported project responds also to the requirements of recent EU documents: "The ESPON (European Spatial Planning Observation Network, ESPON 2006) Hazards Project" and the Program "Spatial Effects and Management of Natural and Technological Hazards in Europe" adopted in 2006. The end user of the project results is, in fact, the society in a broad sense – general public, business community, insurance companies, mass media, government, military/civil defense forces and so forth.