Final Report Summary - ART-SEIS (Automated Real-Time Broad Band Seismology in the Azores-Gibraltar region)
Earthquakes cause great damage to societies at all levels. Portugal, in particular, has been affected by moderate and large earthquakes repeatedly throughout history. For example, Portugal suffered the effects of the largest historical earthquake in Europe, the magnitude 8.5-8.7 Lisbon earthquake of November 1, 1755. In 1909 the village of Benavente, on the lower Tagus valley, mainland Portugal, was completely destroyed by a magnitude 6 earthquake. More recently, in 1969, a magnitude 7.9 earthquake offshore Portugal caused strong shaking in central and southern Portugal. In spite of the danger posed by earthquakes and tsunamis, the Portuguese population remains largely unprepared for these events.
Project ART-SEIS developed state-of-the-art tools that make the most of the present high-quality broadband seismic data (Figure 1). The tools were passed on to Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), the institution responsible for seismic monitoring in Portugal. We contributed to the development of an effective and sustainable seismic monitoring system that allows for the generation of near-real-time earthquake information after an earthquake and rapid response in case of disaster. Project ART-SEIS had a important impact in earthquake risk mitigation by equipping the national agencies with tools to better monitor seismicity and to better respond in case of emergency.
The four major goals of project ART-SEIS, all of which were fulfilled, were:
1) To develop a seismic system that allows rapid response to earthquake disasters in Portugal by rapidly computing the location, magnitude, and style of faulting of earthquakes, as well as maps of ground shaking (Shakemaps). At the beginning of this project IPMA was already routinely computing earthquake epicenter, depth, local magnitude, as well as basic Shakemaps. We developed and tested new algorithms to improve the computation of these parameters. The new methods are based on the analysis of the whole seismic waveform, rather than just on arrival times of seismic waves. In addition, the moment magnitude of earthquakes, which measures the energy released during an earthquake, is now determined by IPMA for moderate and large earthquakes. These procedures were applied retrospectively to all earthquakes occurred in Portugal since the deployment of the high-quality broadband network in 2007. The results were published in international journals and academic thesis. A novel application of Shakemaps was developed to take into account the uncertainties on ground motion prediction equations and site effects for southwest Iberia (Figure 2). Instead of computing just one Shakemap for each earthquake, an ensemble of plausible Shakemaps are now computed, allowing for an appreciation of the differences between the predictions of different models. Shakemaps were calibrated for the specificities of the Portuguese territory, including local site amplifications and attenuation of wave propagation.
2) To implement a set of algorithms for high-quality estimation of earthquake parameters (hypocenter, magnitude and moment tensor) taking into account the geographical situation of Portugal. By studying earthquake sources using full waveform modeling we were able to overcome many of the difficulties posed by the challenging geographical and tectonic setting of Portugal. The focal mechanism is now computed at IPMA by moment tensor waveform inversion, providing information on earthquake basic faulting geometry (Figure 3). Simplified parameters that characterize the fault plane rupture are also determined. A strong emphasis was put on the assessment of error in the solutions, which is particularly important given the network constraints.
3) To investigate and implement procedures that reduce the operational costs of the seismic networks using the available technologies in order to render its operation sustainable in time. Solutions using automated, low cost methodologies to analyze earthquakes were developed and tested. A new project, of which the researcher is principal investigator, was initiated to develop methods that automatically screen the large volumes of data generated by the current networks.
4) To advocate and promote the implementation of the solutions identified and developed in the project by the national authorities. The researcher went beyond the initial goals of this IRG, not only advocating and promoting the implementation of the developed tools, but actually participating in the implementation of these solutions at IPMA and on the training of IPMA’s staff. On October 2013 IPMA successfully performed on its own the analysis of two earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 4 that occurred offshore southwest of Portugal, using the state-of-the-art methodologies developed and tested in ART-SEIS.
This International Reintegration Grant allowed the researcher to solidly establish herself in the Portuguese scientific community, a fact attested by her active ongoing collaborations with other Portuguese institutions (ongoing funded projects QuakeLoc-PT, SEICHE, INSPIRE, AQUAREL). The researcher was also able to connect with the European community, currently participating on funded scientific projects (team member on ASTARTE, EPOS-PP and NERA) and collaborating with colleagues abroad (e.g.: GFZ, Potsdam; Charles University, Prague; Patras University, Greece; UCL, London; ETHZ, Zurich).
The socio-economic relevance of this project is most evident on the mitigation of earthquake risk. The researcher pursued a three-fold strategy: 1) to improve the scientific understanding of the seismo-tectonics of Portugal; 2) to develop and contribute to the implementation at IPMA of methods adequate to monitor in real-time earthquakes in Portugal; 3) to contribute actively to knowledge transfer, through education and outreach activities, from kindergarten to university level, and training of teachers, civil protection agents and seismological operators, raising the awareness and preparedness of the population to earthquake risk.
The researcher was able to create an independent working group with students, trainees and research assistants. All her students and trainees continued working on or studying Solid Earth related topics.
Overall the project proceeded according to the proposed workplan, with only minor adjustments. Tasks that became unfeasible due to exterior constraints were cancelled and new opportunities were embraced. The main goals of the project were successfully attained and even overcame, with the actual implementation of the new tools at IPMA and training of its seismological operators.
Project ART-SEIS developed state-of-the-art tools that make the most of the present high-quality broadband seismic data (Figure 1). The tools were passed on to Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), the institution responsible for seismic monitoring in Portugal. We contributed to the development of an effective and sustainable seismic monitoring system that allows for the generation of near-real-time earthquake information after an earthquake and rapid response in case of disaster. Project ART-SEIS had a important impact in earthquake risk mitigation by equipping the national agencies with tools to better monitor seismicity and to better respond in case of emergency.
The four major goals of project ART-SEIS, all of which were fulfilled, were:
1) To develop a seismic system that allows rapid response to earthquake disasters in Portugal by rapidly computing the location, magnitude, and style of faulting of earthquakes, as well as maps of ground shaking (Shakemaps). At the beginning of this project IPMA was already routinely computing earthquake epicenter, depth, local magnitude, as well as basic Shakemaps. We developed and tested new algorithms to improve the computation of these parameters. The new methods are based on the analysis of the whole seismic waveform, rather than just on arrival times of seismic waves. In addition, the moment magnitude of earthquakes, which measures the energy released during an earthquake, is now determined by IPMA for moderate and large earthquakes. These procedures were applied retrospectively to all earthquakes occurred in Portugal since the deployment of the high-quality broadband network in 2007. The results were published in international journals and academic thesis. A novel application of Shakemaps was developed to take into account the uncertainties on ground motion prediction equations and site effects for southwest Iberia (Figure 2). Instead of computing just one Shakemap for each earthquake, an ensemble of plausible Shakemaps are now computed, allowing for an appreciation of the differences between the predictions of different models. Shakemaps were calibrated for the specificities of the Portuguese territory, including local site amplifications and attenuation of wave propagation.
2) To implement a set of algorithms for high-quality estimation of earthquake parameters (hypocenter, magnitude and moment tensor) taking into account the geographical situation of Portugal. By studying earthquake sources using full waveform modeling we were able to overcome many of the difficulties posed by the challenging geographical and tectonic setting of Portugal. The focal mechanism is now computed at IPMA by moment tensor waveform inversion, providing information on earthquake basic faulting geometry (Figure 3). Simplified parameters that characterize the fault plane rupture are also determined. A strong emphasis was put on the assessment of error in the solutions, which is particularly important given the network constraints.
3) To investigate and implement procedures that reduce the operational costs of the seismic networks using the available technologies in order to render its operation sustainable in time. Solutions using automated, low cost methodologies to analyze earthquakes were developed and tested. A new project, of which the researcher is principal investigator, was initiated to develop methods that automatically screen the large volumes of data generated by the current networks.
4) To advocate and promote the implementation of the solutions identified and developed in the project by the national authorities. The researcher went beyond the initial goals of this IRG, not only advocating and promoting the implementation of the developed tools, but actually participating in the implementation of these solutions at IPMA and on the training of IPMA’s staff. On October 2013 IPMA successfully performed on its own the analysis of two earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 4 that occurred offshore southwest of Portugal, using the state-of-the-art methodologies developed and tested in ART-SEIS.
This International Reintegration Grant allowed the researcher to solidly establish herself in the Portuguese scientific community, a fact attested by her active ongoing collaborations with other Portuguese institutions (ongoing funded projects QuakeLoc-PT, SEICHE, INSPIRE, AQUAREL). The researcher was also able to connect with the European community, currently participating on funded scientific projects (team member on ASTARTE, EPOS-PP and NERA) and collaborating with colleagues abroad (e.g.: GFZ, Potsdam; Charles University, Prague; Patras University, Greece; UCL, London; ETHZ, Zurich).
The socio-economic relevance of this project is most evident on the mitigation of earthquake risk. The researcher pursued a three-fold strategy: 1) to improve the scientific understanding of the seismo-tectonics of Portugal; 2) to develop and contribute to the implementation at IPMA of methods adequate to monitor in real-time earthquakes in Portugal; 3) to contribute actively to knowledge transfer, through education and outreach activities, from kindergarten to university level, and training of teachers, civil protection agents and seismological operators, raising the awareness and preparedness of the population to earthquake risk.
The researcher was able to create an independent working group with students, trainees and research assistants. All her students and trainees continued working on or studying Solid Earth related topics.
Overall the project proceeded according to the proposed workplan, with only minor adjustments. Tasks that became unfeasible due to exterior constraints were cancelled and new opportunities were embraced. The main goals of the project were successfully attained and even overcame, with the actual implementation of the new tools at IPMA and training of its seismological operators.
