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Energy Technologies Modelling and Scenarios Project


Specific Objectives:
1. To provide energy technology projections related to the role of hydrogen as a primary energy carrier and the long-term prospects for the so- called "Hydrogen Economy". This should complement the on-going exercise on alternative transportation fuels;
2. To expand the energy technology reference system to address the particularities of Candidate Countries in view of an enlargement of the POLES model to deal in detail with them. Purchase/install/adapt and set-up for exploitation the necessary databases;
3. To enlarge the energy techno-economic database with a detailed characterisation of two additional sectors: (a) the refineries and petrochemical industries and (b) non-ferrous metals (to complement the on-going exercises on steel industries, cement industries and pulp-and-paper). These exercises have to be conducted in close connection with the corresponding IPPC BREF papers, as well as with other SETRIS actions;
4. To provide support to DG TREN in the follow-up of the Green Paper on Security of Energy Supply. Exploring, through the design of alternative scenarios, the role of technology renewal in mitigating the external dependence of the EU in energy supply. Anticipated milestones and schedule 1.1 Expert advisory panels 1.2 Report on long-term hydrogen scenarios: December 2003 2.1 Database update report 3.1 Dedicated report on the refineries and petrochemical industries industries 3.2 Dedicated report on the non-ferrous metals industries 3.3 Paper on the modelling set-up developed to capture the future sector dynamics 4.1 First results to be provided by the end of 2003.
Planned Deliverables:
1.1 Expert advisory panels 1.2 report on long-term hydrogen scenarios
2.1 Database update report
3.1 Dedicated report on the refineries and petrochemical industries industries 3.2 Dedicated report on the non-ferrous metals industries 3.3 Paper on the modelling set-up developed to capture the future sector dynamics;
4.1 To undertake model (POLES) runs to provide answers to the EU security of supply in terms of (i) external dependence by fuel and region (ii) demand/supply scenarios and (iii) technological developments.
Summary of the Action:
The action supports the policy-making process by providing reliable information of energy technology trends, energy resources and markets at EU and world level and evaluating the impact of accelerated technological changes and other related policies crucial for the socio-economic system. Particular attention is given to the monitorization of the energy markets in Candidate Countries, in support of the enlargement policy. The tasks of this action include: Continuous update of techno-economic information (energy databases, etc.) and upgrade, update, demonstration and maintenance of the models and tools used. Run scenarios (single and alternate) to provide the policy making process with a common context and a vehicle for presentation of concepts and information on energy technologies, in co-operation with the foresight activities of ISA 4.1.2. Analyse the relationship between the process of technology adoption and substitution and the general regulatory framework in energy markets(both related to environmental externalities and to market organization and competition).

Elaboration of reports on particular technological filières (fuel cells, renewables, hydrogen, large industrial sectors, etc) according to policy- demands. Support the prioritization of R&D in the energy field by providing relevant prospective scientific and techno-economic quantitative and qualitative information. In this respect, this action will also contribute, as deemed necessary, to the execution of the ESTIR activity of DG RTD in partnership with the other actions of SETRIS under the co-ordination of Action 2311. Rationale The purpose of this action is to develop scenarios for energy supply and demand utilizing the appropriate modelling and forecasting tools, to be used in conjunction with other Actions of this ISA. This is perceived as a crucial activity to support environmental-protection policies promoted by the EC in the framework of the Sustainable Development Strategy adopted in the European Council of Goteborg 2001 as well as to reinforce EC Energy policy (Follow-up of the Green Paper on Security of Energy Supply): Support to the European policymakers by providing an analysis of the possible contributions from technologies on the supply and demand side: (i) to reduce the primary energy external dependency of the EU under various policy-relevant scenarios, and (ii) to fulfil the EU international obligations on environmental protection, including compliance with the Kyoto Protocol to reduce CO2 emissions. Provision of a description of the main energy technology developments expected to occur up to 2030 and beyond, together with a comprehensive economic assessment.

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Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
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Edificio Expo, C/ Inca Garcilaso s/n
E-41092 Seville

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