Objective
The Supply Chain Management depends importantly on the predictions accuracy in the most of industries. These predictions are provided by the Forecasting Support System (FSS) in order to make decisions regarding departments like Marketing, Finance, Inventory, Distribution, Logistic, Human Resources and purchasing. In fact, these predictions are usually based on the mixture of forecasting statistical techniques, current economic situation, experience of the managers and the way that the FSS gathers these concepts. Nonetheless, there are current evidences that suggest a non efficient use of these systems and so, high costs are associated to these prediction errors. The present project will accomplish a thoroughly investigation about the possible sources of this inefficient use of the FSS by means of a collaboration with the Lancaster University Management School (LUMS). Thus, the different ingredients which act on the FSS will be analyzed in order to suit the main objectives of the organization in the best way. Firstly, we will analyze the different statistical methods which are candidates to do the forecasting task. We will focus on the Unobserved Components models developed in a State-Space framework, where novel hybrid techniques which use discrete and continuous time domains will be assessed in combination with efficient recursive estimation techniques like Kalman Filter and Fixed Interval Smoothing. Secondly, a study about the influence of the current economic situation on our forecasts will be accomplished. This investigation will be carried out from a new point of view about the business cycle, where adaptive nonlinear techniques which come from the control literature will be used to allow us look into the time-varying behaviour of the business cycle frequency. Finally, all the aforementioned points will be gathered with the manager’s judgement in an ideal Forecasting Support System.
Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
FP7-PEOPLE-IEF-2008
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Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Coordinator
LA1 4YW LANCASTER
United Kingdom
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.