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MAnaging System Change in Aviation

Final Report Summary - MASCA (MAnaging System Change in Aviation)

Executive Summary:
Goals
“The main object of MASCA is to deliver a structure to manage the acquisition and retention of skills and knowledge, through training on organisational processes for managing change.”
The MASCA Change Management System (CMS) was developed to deliver an integrated change management capability through its deployment in selected change management case studies. This deliverable concerns the evaluation of these case studies, including the deployment of the MASCA Change Management System. A core theme throughout the project has been the development of a theory or model of change that provides both a robust basis for supporting change initiatives and a coherent framework for evaluating their status and progress.

Theory

MASCA was conceived and developed in order to address the high failure rate of change initiatives and to provide guidance and support for how to do it better. To do this the theory has not only to provide an adequate descriptive account of the factors that are associated with change, but also to demonstrate how those factors actually work together to produce a change in the organisational system; and finally it should do this in a way that can support practical measures that give real leverage over the change process. This theory has developed as the project has progressed in an attempt to fulfil these criteria.

The focus of the MASCA approach is on the internal capacity of the organisation to be flexible and adaptable in a way that increases the chances to survive and prosper under a wide range of circumstances. The theoretical model concerns the way in which the functional logic of processes depends on the social logic of relationships and how both of these can be transformed by the logic of knowledge and information. Understanding how this works - the mechanisms, functions, relations and timescales that activate these three interdependent sub-systems - is the key to delivering value from operational processes that is real and immediate, that is also sustained and, above all, that accommodates to change. The change framework comprises of four main steps: Identifying Needs & Goals, Plan & Prepare, Execute, and Review & Evaluate (IPER). This is not a simple sequence but an iterative process reviewing the status of each stage and what needs to be done to achieve the next stage, all the time reviewing and updating the understand of how the current status has been achieved and revising and refocusing the goals. It is a dynamic theory which seeks to reconcile the imperative to plan and manage change, with the reality of complex emergent processes in change. It does not seek a perfect solution, but to significantly improve knowing what needs to change, building consensus for change and managing the unexpected problems that often derail a change process.

Evaluation methodology
The Structured Enquiry provides a set of questions driving an analysis of each module. It follows the IPER stages, supporting a synthesis of the current state across the different dimensions and a prospective analysis of risk in relation to the next phase and overall outcomes. The interview process is not meant to follow a rigid structure. The interviewer is meant to tailor the enquiry to what is relevant to this initiative at this stage and the particular knowledge and experience of the interviewee. Given the overall status of the cases, this deliverable focuses primarily on the transition from planning and preparation to execution.

Case studies
There are four main case studies and one more limited exploration of technology implementation.
Case-Study 1 - A medium-sized European airport is tasked with implementing Airport Collaborative Decision Making A-CDM, following guidelines from EUROCONTOL. It has spent many months in preparation and is now ready for the implementation phase. Like many airports, this has a wide variety of independent ground handling companies and airlines. One challenge is in aligning local goals for a more global objective, and the sharing of data across different stakeholders - Handling, Airport, Airline, and ATM. One of the contributions of the MASCA project has been the development and use of a serious game, based on the airport turnaround process that seeks to demonstrate the value of collaboration amongst competing partners.

Case-Study 2 – The development and implementation of a comprehensive safety management system in a major airline. There has been a long evolution of the organisation’s safety management system through periods of consolidation, integration and radical change to the organization. A comprehensive set of Safety Performance Indicators were initiated as a way of identifying and driving improvements. This involved challenging demands to develop a common safety and risk framework across different departments, to develop common performance management approaches between safety and other goals and to link safety with lean change initiatives.

Case-Study 3 - A holistic performance management approach has been developed and is being implemented in a small regional airport. Data collected through the development of an innovative web tool are analysed to measure day to day performance and potential hazards in procedures, equipment and human factors. A database has also been designed to support the new Safety Management System which is still in process of development. Subtasks pertaining to each non-conformity are recorded in a dedicated Risk Register and analysed during scheduled meetings attended by staff and management in order to identify appropriate corrective actions. This is part of a major strategy to create a more business-oriented framework which is critical to the organization’s survival.

Case-Study 4 - The assessment of risk in advance of major change in a regional airline. This case illustrated a flexible reactive response to change imposed from outside by adapting conventional risk assessment methodology to adjust the company’s response to the impact of that change.

Results
Some of the provisional conclusions from the research that are critical for ensuring successful change.

1 Functional knowledge
The starting point is functional knowledge – knowing how the system works and delivers its outcomes are necessary to know how it can change to deliver improved outcomes. New information technologies both support tasks better and create new streams of information enabling management processes to link activity to goals. This functional knowledge of socio-technical systems is not easy to develop and apply.

2 Building consensus
All stakeholders need to be involved, including those in lower status or more marginalized positions whose role can be critical. Working across boundaries is difficult because it cuts across hierarchies of accountability. Why it is in their interest to collaborate needs to be understood clearly. The collective action of change needs to be properly organized and supported as if it comprised a team. Trust needs to be created out of the situation in which people work – shared goals, open communication, clear ways of working.

3 Managing knowledge
Managing and sharing knowledge is the key to enabling change. Knowledge comes from two sources - people and technology. Real learning involves making what is tacit explicit, transforming it and re-embedding it in a new practice. This can be highly collaborative & participative; allowing people to explore and play roles in serious games can be very effective. For some roles, learning needs to be high level and long term, for others it needs to be flexible, immediate and focused. New technology creates an explosion of data; one needs to know what is relevant and convert that to information and knowledge about what the system is doing, and consider both primary and secondary uses of this data. Knowledge in use needs to be constantly validated; hence feedback and cyclical flow amongst users is important.

4 Tasks of leadership
One leadership task is scoping the future requirements for survival and competitive success for the organization in its business environment. This sets the goals and challenges that need to be met. The task is then to understand how to manage information and knowledge to create the capability to design, plan and implement the future system; to create consensus and commitment to doing so; all the while ensuring flexibility to deal with the unexpected, maintaining progress. Within this framework, all parties need to understand their interests and how to pursue them. This creates an agenda for the work of social relations - negotiation, conflict resolution, forming coalitions, building and leading teams, operating in networks both inside and outside the organization. These leadership roles are very demanding.

5 Generic capability to change
While the knowledge that needs to be managed is specific to the process, the industry, the situation, the capabilities to assemble, collaborate, manage and use that knowledge are generic. The MASCA project has focused on what makes a socio-technical system more flexible under stress without sacrificing standards, more adaptable to changing circumstances, improving its sustainability

6 Learning
Collaborative learning through an integrated learning package can support continuous performance improvement and develop competency and capability at all levels in a way that is engaged, flexible and focused. This flexibility and focus needs to be balanced by the ability to better anticipate, plan and prepare the change participants for their roles. This is a leadership role that requires higher-level competency building. Specialist Masters level courses can help develop the competencies that will give organisations the sustainable capability to change.

Conclusions
The case studies that MASCA has supported have demonstrated the validity of this approach – it makes sense to people, it generates a cogent analysis of the state of change with credible and powerful recommendations. The next stage in the development of this model is to demonstrate its efficacy in delivering effective outcomes in multiple cases, and showing how it can be adapted to different change requirements.

Project Context and Objectives:
Background
Within the aviation industry the need for sustainable change is becoming more and more imperative. This is due to a number of factors ranging from structural to technological to commercial. Also, change management, mentoring, leadership skills and other “soft” skills are not adequately distributed throughout the aviation industry. Human factors’ training is mainly focused on the operational layer within organisations with the aim of reducing error and enhancing safety at the point where it is most likely to occur. However, safety risk, for example, is known to be a systemic phenomenon and not contained within the cockpit or hangar. Change is being imposed on the industry from a number of sources and the need for change management skills and capability within organisations is increasing.

Project Objectives
The main objective of MASCA is to develop and deliver a structure to manage the acquisition and retention of skills and knowledge concerning organisational processes for managing change in the ‘whole air transport system’. Different stakeholders in a common operational system (airlines, airports, maintenance companies, etc.) will come together to change the shared operational system to deliver a better service. The workprogramme takes an action research approach with a primary focus on the transfer of change management capability into the organisations that are responsible for and involved in change. Thus the workprogramme is organised around two complementary objectives:
• The development of a system to support the development and deployment of an integrated change management capability (Change Management System – CMS)
• The deployment and evaluation of the CMS in selected change management initiatives, both simulated and actual.

The focus of the MASCA project was on the internal capacity of the organisation to be flexible and adaptable in a way that increases the chances to survive and prosper under a wide range of circumstances (not just the specific circumstances of the change initiative under study).

Project Results:
Background
Within the aviation industry the need for sustainable change is becoming more and more imperative. This is due to a number of factors ranging from structural to technological to commercial. Also, change management, mentoring, leadership skills and other “soft” skills are not adequately distributed throughout the aviation industry. Human factors’ training is mainly focused on the operational layer within organisations with the aim of reducing error and enhancing safety at the point where it is most likely to occur. However, safety risk, for example, is known to be a systemic phenomenon and not contained within the cockpit or hangar. Change is being imposed on the industry from a number of sources and the need for change management skills and capability within organisations is increasing.

Project Objectives
The main objective of MASCA is to develop and deliver a structure to manage the acquisition and retention of skills and knowledge concerning organisational processes for managing change in the ‘whole air transport system’. Different stakeholders in a common operational system (airlines, airports, maintenance companies, etc.) will come together to change the shared operational system to deliver a better service. The workprogramme takes an action research approach with a primary focus on the transfer of change management capability into the organisations that are responsible for and involved in change. Thus the workprogramme is organised around two complementary objectives:
• The development of a system to support the development and deployment of an integrated change management capability (Change Management System – CMS)
• The deployment and evaluation of the CMS in selected change management initiatives, both simulated and actual.

The focus of the MASCA project was on the internal capacity of the organisation to be flexible and adaptable in a way that increases the chances to survive and prosper under a wide range of circumstances (not just the specific circumstances of the change initiative under study).

Change Case Studies
Research projects never run companies. Case studies that concern real change in real organisations therefore follow a logic dictated by the company’s strategy and circumstances and not the logic of the research programme. MASCA has been fortunate in being involved in serious change in major companies, such change being critical to the company’s ongoing sustainability and in some cases, survival. The nature of these changes is also critical to the future of the air transport system as a whole – not just the particular companies concerned. The MASCA case-studies included:

- Case-Study 1 - A medium-sized European airport is tasked with implementing Airport Collaborative Decision Making A-CDM, following guidelines from EUROCONTOL. It has spent many months in preparation and is now ready for the implementation phase. Like many airports, this has a wide variety of independent ground handling companies and airlines. One challenge is in aligning local goals for a more global objective, and the sharing of data across different stakeholders - Handling, Airport, Airline, ATM. One of the contributions of the MASCA project has been the development and use of a serious game, based on the airport turnaround process that seeks to demonstrate the value of collaboration amongst competing partners.

- Case-Study 2 – The development and implementation of a comprehensive safety management system in a major airline. There has been a long evolution of the organisation’s safety management system through periods of consolidation, integration and radical change to the organization. A comprehensive set of Safety Performance Indicators were initiated as a way of identifying and driving improvements. This involved challenging demands to develop a common safety and risk framework across different departments, to develop common performance management approaches between safety and other goals and to link safety with lean change initiatives.

- Case-Study 3 - A holistic performance management approach has been developed and is being implemented in a small regional airport. Data collected through the development of an innovative web tool are analysed to measure day to day performance and potential hazards in procedures, equipment and human factors. A database has also been designed to support the new Safety Management System which is still in process of development. Subtasks pertaining to each non-conformity are recorded in a dedicated Risk Register and analysed during scheduled meetings attended by staff and management in order to identify appropriate corrective actions. This is part of a major strategy to create a more business-oriented framework which is critical to the organisation’s survival.

- Case-Study 4 - The assessment of risk in advance of major change in a regional airline. This case illustrated a flexible reactive response to change imposed from outside by adapting conventional risk assessment methodology to adjust the company’s response to the impact of that change.

The origin of these change programmes predates the MASCA project and they will continue beyond the end of the project. However these case-studies were test beds for the development of a framework for understanding the notion of an organisation’s capacity to manage change. From that basis the objective was to provide key types of support to the development and deployment of the change initiatives and to develop a methodology to evaluate progress in change. This is part of a long-term strategy to develop a more powerful model of change evaluation by progressively testing predictions against actual outcomes of change initiatives.

Model of the Change Process

The overall approach developed within the MASCA project provided a way of understanding some of the complexities of change processes and to support better design and evaluation of each of the change initiatives. The proposed framework (see figure 1) comprises of four main steps needed for any change initiative: Identifying Needs & Goals, Plan & Prepare, Execute, and Review & Evaluate (IPER). Importantly, these are not stand alone steps. Each step is iterative and incremental and so needs to be updated frequently and operate in a dynamic manner, taking into account the whole status of the change initiative. Thus it is not simply a reiteration of a planning approach to change, but an attempt to incorporate some of the emergent characteristics of change in a way that suggests how they can be managed.


Figure 1: Model of change process

The core proposition is that understanding the functionality of a socio-technical system is the key to managing it more effectively, changing it to achieve better outcomes, or designing a better functioning future system. Therefore the middle two steps, Plan & Prepare and Execute, are comprised of three interlocking, interpenetrated sub-systems:

System I – The Functional Process Logic: - Will the capability of the new process deliver
strategic performance targets? Will the process that is under development and
implementation satisfy the external demands on the process and be aligned with the company strategy?

System II – The Social Cohesion Logic: - Do the social structure and trust sustain stable
process performance? Are the social relationships required for the change in
the functional process of good enough quality to create social cohesion around the new process and process delivering the change?

System III – Information & Knowledge:‐ Do information and knowledge processes provide a thorough, valid and current understanding of how the new process will work and what it is doing and hereby understand why, what and how to change? Are there knowledge and information systems and processes in place that engage people that will make the future system work (figure 2).

However, this is not a simple progress: there may be much iteration, different parts of a complex initiative may be at different stages at the same time; sub-parts may go through a whole cycle within one stage of a higher system level. Within these iterations there is (or could be) constant feedback to review how the current state has been achieved and to clarify and refocus the goals in the light of this experience. The logical character of the analysis provides two distinct but complementary operations. ‘Where are we now?’ and ‘Where are we going?’

Figure 2: Conceptual architecture of MASCA change theory

MASCA Interventions
In applying the above model of change the key evaluation question moved from being “is it possible to plan change?” or “is it possible to retrospectively analyse what happened in this change?” to “is it possible to understand and manage the emergent features of the change process so as to increase the probability of success?”

In order to more fully understand some of the complexities of managing change the following provides an overview of some of the key interventions that were developed within the MASCA project to better support the design, implementation and evaluation of change initiatives.

Understanding how the process works?

The key finding from the research is that it is not obvious, even to people who have considerable technical competence and professional experience, either from management or operational roles, how that process actually works when broken down into a detailed sequence of interdependent activities. Therefore one of the key interventions involved a participative process mapping activity that addressed the overall functionality of the operation and creating a common operational picture. The MASCA approach to process mapping goes far beyond the conventions of Business Process Mapping (for example), in its concern with the underlying logic of the process, and ensuring an appropriate representation of all relevant activities of people, in particular the informal co-ordination activity which is essential to the smooth running of complex process systems. Such activities are normally the ‘white space’ between tasks of conventional process maps.

Thus in the A-CDM case, it took a while for the researchers and industry to achieve a shift from an aircraft-centric process representation to one where it is recognised that the services delivered to the aircraft (which are critical to delivering the turnaround) do not follow this logic, but a transverse logic of serving a succession of different aircraft – thus cutting across the aircraft (flight and ground) process at key intersections. The basic process logic is that of co-ordination between intersecting processes and the key uncertainty that needs to be managed is the availability of all the required resources at those key intersections. Thus, in order to manage the turnaround, it is less important to have a detailed representation of each task, but vital to understand the key decision points where different sets of activities of service providers intersect with the aircraft (flight and ground) process. It is the interdependencies between different sets of processes, each of which have their own functional logic and temporal constraints that needs to be managed. This understanding was core to ensuring that all the relevant stakeholders were involved and that the information system took account of their needs.

For the small regional airport the issue was not the development of a ‘new’ process like A-CDM, but better adherence to and control of existing processes. Here, the participative approach to process mapping created a set of maps with strong ecological validity, so that they could support, in a clear and effective way, additional steps in the process which were seen to be beneficial – creating a daily journal of activities to be check off and an anomalies report. Again, creating a common functional logic of the process system was a critical first step.

Learning, Training & Mentoring Framework
The Knowledge and Information Cycles are core to the change capabilities of organizations. The Knowledge Cycle draws together two aspects of system knowledge – knowledge represents an idea, a model of how the system functions, how it can achieve its goals; and this knowledge may be actively shared to promote a common understanding. It links the functional logic to the social logic – both are essential. Consensus is not enough (consensus about what?); a top-down vision of how the future may be (however good) is not sufficient unless sufficiently shared to make it happen. Why is it important to address this as a knowledge issue, rather than a technical question of process mapping, or an aspect of social relations? Approaching the problem in this way enables us to focus clearly on where the problems and deficits are, on what is the nature of the challenge that needs to be faced, and on what needs to be done to address it effectively.

The MASCA Learning, Training and Mentoring (LTM) framework was specifically designed to address this core issue. MASCA established a collaborative learning process and integrated learning package needs to focus on supporting continuous performance improvement and learning (competency and capability at all levels) and to ensure this overall learning is fully aligned to the overall strategic blueprint of the organisation. .

External experts from the research organisations played a strong role in all the case studies. This has had a dual function – both bringing new ideas, new analyses, new methodologies, new software into the organisations sponsoring change, as well as supporting and mentoring the change agents themselves in these initiatives. There have also been extensive training initiatives across the change programmes. Interestingly the initial training needs analysis conducted at the beginning of the project turned out to be rather too superficial as a guide to the training development needed by the cases. Rather, the development of training was more opportunistic, dictated by the needs of the cases as they developed. A major achievement was the development of a serious Serious Game (SKYBOARD) focused on facilitating collaboration between key airport stakeholders as part of their initiative to implement A-CDM. The LTM approach also included online webinars, the development of a Masters Programme ‘Managing Risk & System Change’ (due to commence in September 2014) and mentoring all of which provided the opportunity for collaborative learning. This is hard to measure or quantify, but is one of the most important mechanisms for the transfer of knowledge and know-how.

Evaluating the Risk of Change
MASCA has identified key dimensions in the management of change and incorporated these into an evaluation tool called the Structured Enquiry. The analysis using this tool has represented an intense collaboration between the research and industry partners in supporting the case studies. It has adopted a comprehensive enquiry structure which synthesises the analysis from task and co-ordination level (specific activities) up to the overall system level in which a combination of operational processes and related management processes deliver value to a customer. It has generated cogent analyses of the change initiatives and raised serious questions about their direction and potential and in most cases this analysis has been entirely shared between the relevant industry and research partners. It has generated a large number of recommendations for the next phase of the case studies, again in most cases fully endorsed by the industrial partners

Information & Software Support
A new software system providing a daily journal guide and report on activity, a report on anomalies and hazard identification has been developed to support one of the case-studies. The applications, initially designed to provide direct process support, generated data that became valuable as a record of what had happened, for example in supporting reporting to customers and external stakeholders. The existence of this data also created the possibility of new management processes (including SMS) which could use aggregated data to monitor and direct improvement of the system. This has generated a new level of applications to serve these management processes. This progression potentially serves several functions: it directly supports the management of the change initiative in monitoring where the system is going in relation to the goals of the change initiative; it creates feedback loops (for example responding to anomalies reports) that validate the quality of the data in the system; and it creates transparency to all stakeholders about the way the system is functioning

What Makes For Successful Change?

The focus of the MASCA approach (as stated earlier) ‘is on the internal capacity of the organisation to be flexible and adaptable in a way that increases the chances to survive and prosper under a wide range of circumstances. The following highlights some of the provisional conclusions from the research that are critical for ensuring successful change.

Functional knowledge
The starting point is functional knowledge – knowledge about how the system actually works – not just how to do a good job but how that supports the overall system. It is necessary to know how the system delivers its outcomes in order to know how it can change to deliver improved outcomes that meet the requirements of the future. New information technologies can support and enable people to do their tasks better. They can also create new streams of information making possible better management processes - again linking activity to goals. Looking at change itself as a functional process can also improve the effectiveness of change initiatives. All of this seems obvious, but it is not easy and people do not spontaneously think in this way. The knowledge required concerns the ways in which people and technology work together to produce some output. This functional knowledge of socio-technical systems has, surprisingly, been relatively neglected.

o Building consensus
All stakeholders need to be involved; those in lower status or more marginalized positions can be critical to the process and can easily be left out. Change normally involves working across boundaries; this is difficult because it cuts across hierarchies of accountability. People need to understand clearly why it is in their interest to collaborate (hence the importance of 1 above). Although people involved in a change initiative may not see themselves as a team, their collective action needs to be properly organized and supported as if they were a team. Trust comes out of the situation in which people work – shared goals, open communication, clear ways of working. The conditions that foster trust in social relations need to be explicitly created.

o Managing knowledge
Both knowing how and what to change and building consensus about this are all about managing and sharing knowledge. This is the key to enabling change. Knowledge comes from two sources - people and technology. Real learning involves making what is tacit explicit, transforming it and re-embedding it in a new practice. This can be highly collaborative and participative; allowing people to explore and play roles in serious games can be very effective. For some roles, learning needs to be high level and long term, for others it needs to be flexible, immediate and focused. New technology creates an explosion of data; one needs to know what is relevant and convert that to information and knowledge about what the system is doing, and consider both primary and secondary users of this data. Knowledge in use needs to be constantly validated; hence feedback and cyclical flow amongst users is important.

o Tasks of leadership
This approach starts with what needs to be done to manage change effectively, rather than by posing what should be the characteristics of leaders. One specific leadership task is scoping the future requirements for survival and competitive success for the organisation in its business environment. This sets the goals and challenges that need to be met. The task is then to understand how to manage information and knowledge to create the capability to design, plan and implement the future system; to create consensus and commitment to doing so; all the while ensuring flexibility to deal with the unexpected, maintaining progress. Within this framework, all parties need to understand their interests and how to pursue them. This creates an agenda for the work of social relations - negotiation, conflict resolution, forming coalitions, building and leading teams, operating in networks both inside and outside the organisation. These leadership roles are very demanding.

o Generic capability to change
While the knowledge that needs to be managed is specific to the process, the industry, the situation, the capabilities to assemble, collaborate, manage and use that knowledge are generic. When considering the resilience of systems it is tempting to focus too much on the ability to predict the unexpected (as if this were possible!). It is more useful to consider what makes a socio-technical system more flexible under stress without sacrificing standards, more adaptable to changing circumstances, improving its sustainability. The MASCA project has focused on the way in which the functional logic of processes depends of the social logic of relationships and how both of these can be transformed by the logic of knowledge and information. Understanding how this works - the combined social and technical mechanisms, functions, relations and timescales of these logics - is the key to delivering value that is real and immediate, is sustained and, above all, accommodates to change.

o Learning
We are at the beginning of a fundamental shift in the way that both learning and working is happening in organisations. Collaborative learning through an integrated learning package can support continuous performance improvement and develop competency and capability at all levels. The emergent needs of the change programme demand this to be highly engaged, flexible and focused. While this flexibility and focus is correct, it needs to be balanced by the ability to project a longer term view of the change programme in order to better anticipate, plan and prepare the change participants for their roles. This is a leadership role that requires higher-level competency building. This is why we have developed a specialist Masters course on Managing Risk in Change in order to help translate into organisations the competencies that will give them the sustainable capability to change.


Potential Impact:
Executive Summary

MASCA supports an integrated development of the capability to manage change in a complex system like aviation. In order to ensure resilient capability to change, an organisation (or group of organisations) has to be able to mobilise its resources (especially the knowledge and the information that supports this) to anticipate future challenges, and to respond and adapt to such challenges (whether they are fully foreseen or not); it has to understand how its systems function and how the system is performing; and have sufficient consensus to participate in and support the effective leadership of change. In order to support the development of this capability MASCA has developed (or incorporated) an integrated set of services, methods and tools, comprising Managing information, Analysing, Serious gaming, Capability building and Achieving value (MASCA). The primary areas for the short term exploitation of the MASCA CMS are in the areas developed in the case studies: the introduction of advanced proactive performance driven Safety Management Systems, the introduction of Airport Collaborative Decision Making, and the management of change in regional airports. MASCA, however, is applicable across the range of socio-technical change in aviation and in other domains where operational risk needs to be controlled, for example in the resources industry and in health care. SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis suggests that the strengths of MASCA are in its integrated approach which is proportional to the complexity of the requirements of change. Its potential weakness is in its complexity – it requires further focus and refinement to mitigate this. The short term opportunities for exploitation concern both further focused RTD in the PROSPERO project, together with interventions in the areas of safety management, collaborative decision making and airport change. As an integrated system MASCA will rely on collaborative agreements between the partners who have a stake or own the intellectual property of the components of the system. However these components can as well be developed and exploited separately and on their own merits.
2 INTRODUCTION
The management of change is not a simple concept. It requires knowledge of the socio-technical system which is subject to change together with an understanding of the processes through which change in that system can be accomplished. Such processes are not adequately represented by a top-down representation of change as simply following a plan. Nor are they adequately represented as a bottom-up emergent process of spontaneous adjustment and/or resistance. Leading change requires an understanding of those emergent processes so that the capabilities, forces and energies of organisations can be mobilised in a way that supports and enables a direction of change. Furthermore, aviation is a complex system of systems, with interdependent processes spanning many organisations. This simply reinforces the point that change in such systems requires the collaborative development of shared understanding of how interests and goals can be realised in a future system.

In deliverable 6.1 - Final evaluation of the change initiatives – the goals and challenges of MASCA were described as follows:

“The main object of MASCA is to deliver a structure to manage the acquisition and retention of skills and knowledge, through training on organisational processes for managing change.”
The MASCA Change Management System (CMS) was developed to deliver an integrated change management capability through its deployment in selected change management case studies.

‘MASCA was conceived and developed in order to address the high failure rate of change initiatives and to provide guidance and support for how to do it better. To do this the theory has not only to provide an adequate descriptive account of the factors that are associated with change, but also to demonstrate how those factors actually work together to produce a change in the organisational system; and finally it should do this in a way that can support practical measures that give real leverage over the change process.’

MASCA thus promised to provide an integrated approach to supporting the development of a capability to manage change in a complex system like aviation. It has evaluated the efficacy of this approach in Deliverable 6.1. Bearing in mind the findings of this evaluation, this deliverable seeks to plot out an exploitation trajectory for the outputs of the MASCA project. For the reasons outlined above, the initial focus of this analysis is on MASCA as an integrated system which can deliver a rounded capability to an end-user organisation or group of organisations. However the MASCA approach is an integration of a number of distinct individual components each of which can have an exploitation trajectory in its own right. This will be the subject of the final part of the deliverable.

3 Overview of the MASCA Change Management System
At the conclusion of the MASCA project it is possible to offer the following succinct, high-level definition of what is required to change an organisation:

At its most general, the capability of a resilient organisation has to encompass the following three characteristics:
• To be able to mobilise its resources (especially its knowledge and the information that supports this) to anticipate future challenges, and to respond and adapt to such challenges (whether they are fully foreseen or not).
• In order to do this is has to understand itself, in two ways:
o how the system functions (how the interaction of human, social and technical aspects makes it possible to deliver value in the short medium and long term); and
o what it is doing (how data from this activity is converted to knowledge about how the system is performing)
• To have sufficient consensus to participate in and support the effective leadership of change

This definition applies (all other things being equal) to a set of organisations functioning as an operational system-of-systems – as in aviation.

In order to support the development of this capability MASCA has developed (or incorporated) an integrated set of services, methods and tools, which are summarised in Figure 1, below. These are Managing information, Analysing, Serious gaming, Capability building and Achieving value (MASCA).

The core of the MASCA Change Management System comprises the operational and management processes, which deliver value in real-time, which is sustainable, and which are capable of change (Achieving Value). Knowledge of these processes (the ‘know-how’ of how things really work) is captured in process maps, analyses and evaluations (Analysing). Data generated by process activity is gathered, integrated, assessed (Managing information). Capability building is supported by mentoring by external expertise; training is offered tailored to the needs of this particular initiative and the phase it is in; high level competence in managing change is given by a Master’s programme. Serious gaming provides participants with the opportunity to explore collaborative ways of working and to experiment with different roles and scenarios.

These components enable the three change criteria outlined above. The requirement to understand how operational processes can be improved and how management processes can be developed is a precondition for building consensus; but it also provides an opportunity, through broad participation, to get an in-depth real and valid picture of how the system works. All components of the MASCA CMS facilitate active participation to understand one’s own and others’ roles and interests and seek to build a shared vision and minimise mutual misunderstanding. This is, or can be, a generic capability – once applied to one change initiative it can be generalised to others. The point is to embed the knowledge cycles (learning from process data, understanding how to improve the functioning of the system) into routine management processes that deliver incremental change in a verifiable way. This in turn provides capability to support more major change initiatives. While, by their nature, major change initiatives are disruptive, the MASCA approach seeks to minimise non-productive (or counter-productive) disruption due to poorly targeted and less adequately designed initiatives, in particular those that do not properly take into account all stakeholders. This requires a long-term investment both in terms of the professional development of the individual change agent / change manager as well as the core competence or capability of the organisation(s) concerned. Hence the Masters programme – Managing the Risk in Change – is designed to translate the learning from RTD projects like MASCA into high-level and enduring professional and organisational competence.

Figure 1: Components of MASCA Change Management System to be inserted from D7.2 Final Exploitation Plan


Table 1 below illustrates the deployment of the MASCA CMS across three broad areas of intervention. These broadly match the cases studies of the MASCA project, though the prospective risk assessment case has been incorporated under the umbrella of SMS for this illustration. The material from all of these cases forms part of the curriculum for the Masters programme, which in turn will support the development of leadership for future change. This shows the broad application of the MASCA concept: supporting SMS implementation in a major airline, collaborative decision-making across a major airport and change in the business performance of a regional airport.

Insert table 1 from D7,2 Final Exploitation Plan


4 Market Analysis
4.1 SMS
By October 2014 all aviation service providers will need to comply with a new regulation for Safety Management Systems. For example all airlines will apply for a new airline operations certificate, AOC, based on their new Safety Management Systems. The main purpose of the new safety regulation requirements is to improve safety performance. The new regulation is changing from an outcome based measure to a performance based measure. The envisioned regulatory SMS is clearly advocating an integrated approach (ICAO, 2008).

The new integrated management system creates a paradox for regulation: it has to prescribe what has to be done to assure that safety is properly addressed; but actually assuring this requires a broader focus than just on safety-related functions, because safety performance depends on the integrated performance of the whole system; however regulators cannot prescribe what is beyond their remit which relates to those aspects which are (specifically) related to the safety of the system. Therefore, in order to understand how to implement an effective safety management system we need a model that goes a long way beyond the borders of what has traditionally been included under the rubric of safety management.

The performance being measured is safety performance. Safety performance is assessed as how well the SMS functions:”Effectiveness of the SMS, how well it performs and manages to improve the system”. This requires high-level safety knowledge and understanding about issues where state of art safety research is still struggling. The logic of the new regulation for an SMS (ICAO, 2012) has derived from systems engineering and quality management (Stolzer, Halford & Goglia, 2008). The logic of the quality management approach to safety may be easy to understand in theory, but in practice the integration between quality and safety is a real challenge. An indication of this may be that ICAO has published three versions of the safety management manual (2006; 2008 and 2012). It has taken years only to develop a manual, which describes the theory. This is difficult, not only for every airline in the world, but also for researchers in this field.

In practice this means that measures indicating safe performance in operations, called indicators, will be agreed upon by authorities and each individual airline. Targets will be set for desired performance improvement on these indicators by next assessment exercise. Requirements will need to be described as well and is a process for how to accomplish this improvement. Safety performance is going to be measured in terms of how well set indicator targets are met. In other words it is essential to understand the system, identify influencing mechanisms to the functionality, implement and monitor indicators, and improve the functionality and outcome. Hence, safety performance is change capability!

MASCA has developed a SMS framework. This framework would be used to train people in the overall function and identify their role as well as missing gaps between the existing status with a future functional system. This would require structured inquiry and SCOPE modelling to be applied.

The target is in general any Airline as well as CAAs and other aviation stakeholders that are developing and implementing SMS. Documentation needs to be approved October 2014 so the immediate need is spring 2014 and also coming year before first regulatory audit of not only compliance but to demonstrate safety performance. It is feasible to get involved in the planning of SMS training for implementation already this spring of 2014 in SAS.
4.2 Airport Collaborative Decision Making (ACDM)
SESAR is beginning to enter its implementation phase. One of the key bottlenecks is the airport turnaround process. If SESAR delivers a step change in capacity in the sky, the benefits of this cannot be realised without and commensurate increase of capacity on the ground during the aircraft turnaround. EUROCONTROL, the organisation responsible for the preparation of the aviation system for the implementation of SESAR and the Single European Sky, recognises that the difficulties of collaboration between competing organisations within an airport environment is a major barrier to the effective implementation of ACDM. There are 35 major European airports that are mandated to implement ACDM by 2014. Currently eight of these have done so successfully and a further 28 are in the process of implementation. It is recognised that those airports that have a more integrated ownership pattern for airport and ground handling services have had less difficulty in implementing ACDM than airports with a greater diversity of independent companies. This issue was directly addressed in MASCA. Arlanda airport is one of the airports and one of those with a wider range of independent companies whose active collaboration in necessary to make ACDM work successfully.

The approach taken in MASCA goes much further than any other SESAR initiative in addressing the human and social aspects of collaboration that need to be addressed to make an integrated turnaround process work effectively following the milestones set by EUROCONTROL. It comprises analysis of potential issues and offering solutions based upon training of staff, including serious gaming to sharpen skills and insight in relevant competence for all staff members involved. This has been recognised by EUROCONTROL, and the potential contribution of the MASCA approach to ameliorating this problem is under discussion with them. The Airports Council International also recognises this problem. Following an initial presentation and workshop held in the ACI Leadership Forum in Bologna in October 2014, a further workshop specifically devoted to ACDM will be held at the ACI Leaderships forum in 2014.

In the short term it is feasible to target 20 major European hub airports as potential customers for implementation of the MASCA approach to ACDM.

In PROSPERO Swedavia is being included in the partnership explicitly to bring their experience in change management from the MASCA project in order to develop a stronger concept of managing the risk in change. The will enhance the airport group in PROSPERO (Aeroporti di Roma, Athens airport, SAGA) in developing a shared model of change which can increasingly become an industry standard.

4.3 Regional Airports
Regional airports are facing major commercial pressure across Europe for a variety of reasons: reduction of state or local government subsidy; competition from road and rail; the changing business model of low-cost carriers is evolving in a way which means transferring more flights to major airports, reducing their reliance on small regional airports. A key part of the survival strategy for such airports has to be to tighten up their own business model: consolidate, reduce costs, maintaining the same level of service, while enhancing quality and safety, with fewer resources. In Pescara, MASCA has demonstrated how it can support essential elements of this strategy through building a culture of compliance with procedures, improved reporting, both internally and externally; effective implementation of safety and quality management, including a very grounded approach to assessing and managing risks; together with a human resources policy tailored to the needs of the business. Undoubtedly, the case of small regional airports demonstrates the challenges of resilience in the face of severe external threats. The business model is progressively less sustainable and it is likely that many small regional airports will not survive as commercial entities in their current form. For those that do survive and prosper the key factors will most likely be a combination of internal flexibilities and agility together with external factors of geography, access to markets etc. MASCA does not offer a simple answer to this problem, but can offer some important elements to aid the internal capability to adapt and adjust.

MASCA has applications across any industrial or service domain which is susceptible to risk. The following two examples illustrate this:
4.4 Resources
The in-depth investigations of the disasters at the BP Texas oil refinery and the Deepwater Horizon drilling and extraction operation reveal the extent of the challenges for large organisations in safety critical industries of implementing recommendations effectively and transparently; and achieving culture change to ensure that improved ways of working are embedded in the normal practices of the organisation; and in managing hierarchies of subcontractors, who deliver the front line services. These reports demonstrate that the response of these organisations to these challenges is often ineffectual. They do not appear to know how to manage the kind of socio-technical change that will ensure effective safety performance. MASCA provides a model for how this could and should be done.

Opportunities to adapt the MASCA approach to the resources sector are:

4.5 Healthcare
In the health services, cost escalation and new service demands with constrained budgets has led to intense pressure for change, in turn leading to a chronic crisis over quality and performance. The following schematic account of the evolution of this crisis in the UK illustrates the need for an approach like MASCA.

• Stage 1: A growing crisis over escalating costs and declining service leads to major top-down policy initiatives to meet service targets (waiting lists, patients seen, etc.). These high-level service targets become the key drivers of internal re-organisation and change. Front-line staff is frequently bewildered and disillusioned by the continuous and repetitive demand for change which seems to take little account of their ability to deliver a quality service.
• Stage 2: In response to crisis events of unacceptably poor performance, new metrics are devised of key system outcomes. Thus, the high death rate in Bristol Royal Infirmary child cardiac surgery unit led to the development of the Standard Hospital Mortality Ratio (SHMR) metric, a standard measure of performance outcome which takes into account patient input variables, enabling a fair comparison between units. This metric gradually becomes a standard for comparison between hospitals.
• Stage 3: SHMR data in turn identify other service units with consistently poor performance outcomes. Investigation of these reveals chronic contradictions between meeting high level service targets (productivity) and standard of care (quality) leading to poor outcomes (Francis report).
• Stage 4: SHMR data are shown to be not an accurate index of quality of care. More sensitive measures are needed if there is to be an effective performance driver to improve standards of care, despite continuing cost escalation and funding reduction, and thence consistently improve outcomes.

This evolution has occurred over approximately 25 years, showing a system lurching in different directions in response to one set of performance metrics after another, with no effective way of understanding what it takes to deliver the service effectively in the first place. It is a costly, inefficient and damaging set of methods for managing change. The MASCA approach would cut across these contradictory tendencies by focussing from the beginning on the functional requirements to deliver outcomes effectively; participative methods build consensus on how a future system could function; and the management of information and knowledge about system functioning ensures an integrated, accurate and valid understanding of socio-technical function and system performance.

TCD are currently pursuing opportunities to adapt the MASCA approach to healthcare through research funding in the Irish healthcare system.

5 SWOT Analysis of MASCA as an Integrated System

5.1 Strengths
MASCA has formalised an approach to supporting change processes in complex socio-technical systems, including a systematic evaluation to empirically verify the effectiveness of the change itself and the support. The main strengths of the MASCA approach are that it is systemic and proportionate to the complexity of the problem that needs to be solved. All the evidence suggests that change is complex and uncertain and requires a multidimensional approach. The MASCA project has enabled a serious theoretical and empirical analysis of the nature of change; this has resulted in a new theoretical framework which is specifically designed to support the development of a program of measures to support change initiatives in a practical way, with the aim of improving their chances of success.

5.2 Weaknesses
The key weaknesses of MASCA are the inverse of its strengths: it is a complex model which may be difficult for someone unfamiliar with these concepts to grasp; it may be difficult to bring all the elements of MASCA together in an optimally co-ordinated way. It has been criticised as being too academic. While these comments may be justified, it is also important to take account of the stage of development of the MASCA concept. MASCA represents the first level of empirical testing of a new theoretical concept. It is hard to specify this as a TRL level because of the combination of a novel concept and methodology with a real world trial (this reflect the difference between technology development – performed offline – with operational change – performed online in real time). The questions is, whether it is possible to develop the MASCA concepts and methods in a way which preserves their systemic and multidimensional strengths but makes them more focused, easier to explain and understand and with an infrastructure which makes for an efficient and co-ordinated delivery of service.

5.3 Opportunities
The immediate opportunity for the further development of MASCA is in the follow-on RTD project PROSPERO. This will enable the following developments to be achieved:
• Formalise change evaluation as a usable tool incorporated in the SCOPE analysis software environment.
• Integrate a more effective risk assessment framework in the change evaluation. This was one of the weaker parts of the MASCA change evaluation methodology.
• Continue the case studies to the end, so that the achievement of goals can be assessed in terms of the interim evaluation of the change program that was carried out in the MASCA project.
• Develop common capabilities across airlines and airports in assessing risk and managing change.
• Link into an overall system management framework that is being developed in PROSPERO, which comprises actively managing risk in the operation, and managing risk in design and change processes. It also incorporates a change management capability into an advanced concept for a proactive performance driven Safety Management System concept.

Furthermore the market analysis outlined above will be turned into an exploitation roadmap.
• In relation to ACDM, an integrated approach has been established between TCD, Swedavia, NLR and KTH, and some discussions have been initiated with EUROCONTROL. The timescale for the introduction of ACDM in European airports dictates that a plan be agreed during the first half of 2014.
• The timescale for the introduction of SMS revolves around a deadline for approval in October 2014. This marks a transition from establishing a policy, with all the elements documented and in place, towards fully implementing the policy in practice in a verifiable way, demonstrating the performance outcomes. Again the exploitation trajectory commences in early 2014, building on the work done in SAS during the project. Applying these concepts in SMS development in another major European low-cost airline is currently under discussion.
• Within the small regional airport (SAGA) the development and exploitation trajectory has shifted towards supporting the management capability to use the MASCA tools in order to assure the achievement of the strategic goals of the organization. This creates a series of best practices that can be emulated by other airports, large or small. This, in turn will create an opportunity to deploy the MASCA tools – the Daily Journal, Anomalies Report, Hazard ID.

5.4 Threats
One of the threats to the success of the MASCA exploitation plan derives from the fact that it is based on collaboration, with multiple stakeholders, developers and end-users, and intellectual property that is owned and sometimes shared between different parties. To take this further requires continued collaboration, either directly in the exploitation plan or through licencing or granting permission to use IP or knowledge which has been derived from that collaboration. The MASCA exploitation plan has not yet got to the stage of formal agreements between partners. Currently the opportunities and interests of different partners are the subject of diverse discussions. It is anticipated that this will lead to appropriate agreements that will underpin an effective plan of action.

6 Exploitation Potential of Individual Components of the MASCA System

The components of the MASCA Change Management System are capable of being developed as stand-alone individual elements, as outlined in table 2. This table provides a high level overview of the key MASCA products, intended markets and estimate of an overall time frame for exploitation.

Insert Figure 2 from D7.2 Final Exploitation Plan

List of Websites:
www.masca-project.eu

Dr Siobhán Corrigan (email: siobhan.corrigan@tcd.ie) (telephone: 0035318962605)