Final Report Summary - ARANGE (Advanced multifunctional forest management in European mountain ranges)
Executive Summary:
As prerequisite for all other tasks in ARANGE seven Case Study Areas (CSAs) were set up in all major European mountain ranges. This included: (i) a set of representative stand types (RST) have been defined and stand and tree data has been made available via the internal communication platform; (ii) In addition in every CSA at least one representative spatially explicit landscape had been defined and GIS data provided to partners; (iii) In all CSAs baseline climate data has been prepared for an altitudinal gradient; (iv) by making use of the quantile mapping method five transient climate change scenarios (over 100 year period) have been downscaled in each CSA. The five climate change scenarios represent the uncertainty in future climatic conditions in these case study regions.
In all CSAs the currently practiced “business as usual” (BAU) management regime was gathered in and operational descriptions of silvicultural measures at the level of the Representative Stand Types (RST) were provided. Parallel to the establishment of the seven case Stuy Areas six forest simulation models were set up and tested for applicability in the CSAs and ecosystem service indicators were defined which on one hand are useful in describing specific ecosystems services and on the other can be linked to available model output variables. In total 22 indicators for four ecosystem services (timber and biomass production, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and habitat conservation, protection against landslides, avalanches and rockfall) were applicable in all case study areas.
To store output fom model simulations a harmonized data fromat and a spatial database were designed and implemented. In total 5057 stand level simulation runs were executed and resulting ecosystem service indicators stored in the ARANGE database.
For the analysis of ecosystem service provisioning ARANGE developed and applied non-linear optimization and goal programming techniques, multi-critera decision analysis approaches to rank alternative management options and advanced trade-off analysis aproaches such as Pareto frontier techniques. Functionalities of an availble decision support toolbox were extended with the ARANGE DataBase to secure the use of ARANGE data by already existing tools in ToolBox. Within ARANGE a tool for the analysis of ES indicators at landscape scale (LAT) was developed. Overall, the publicly available decision support ToolBox has the potential to support practical forest management planning and to transfer knowledge from science labs to endusers.
Model based analysis showed that the performance and efficiency of currently used silvicultural and harvesting systems in regard to provisioning the demanded portfolio of ES were satisfactory in most CSAs. However, surprising was that no obvious relationship was detected between the demanded ES (i.e. management objectives) and the currently practiced management approaches (BAU).
Historic data showed that indicators for timber production were increasing during the analyzed period in all CSAs in terms of both timber stocking and productivity. Similarly, following the trend in stand stocking, the provisioning of carbon storage has also increased in all CSAs. However, the development of indicators of biodiversity conservation differed significantly between the CSAs.
A key issue in future management of mountain forests will be the intensification of disturbance regimes. They are not yet fully represented by the available models. Overly optimistic conclusions may be drawn when disturbances are not considered properly. Just in one CSA (Montafon) bark beetle damages were considered explicitly in the simulations. Current forest management practices in European mountain forests need adaptations and improvements in order to be more efficient in providing demanded ES and to cope with climate change. To adapt stands to possible climate change, sufficient adaptations and modifications within the BAU forest management are feasible. In general, these changes do not alter completely the BAU forest management practices, but do only complement and adjust them to specific needs of ES demands or climate change adaptation.
The recommendation of one single general multifunctional forest management approach in European mountain forests is not appropriate or reasonable. Forest management must be adapted to stand, site and climate conditions as well as to demands of forest owners and stakeholders for provisioning of ES. From landscape level analysis it was evident, that it is not realistic to assume that a set of several ecosystem services can be provided equally well at very small spatial scale (e.g. 1-2ha) due to trade-offs regarding required ecosystem properties. This finding calls for partial segregation and bundling of neutral or complementary ES.
Project Context and Objectives:
The sustainable provision of ecosystem services (ES) in, and of, mountain regions is of crucial importance to an array of stakeholders and society in general. The project “Advanced multifunctional forest management in European mountain RANGEs” (ARANGE) sets out to evaluate the consequences of changing climate and socio-economic conditions for the provisioning of portfolios of ES across a number of mountain forest regions in Europe. The project includes a wide range of forest types in major mountain ranges and seeks to develop and evaluate strategies for their multifunctional management under risk and uncertainty. The overall aims of ARANGE are:
(1) To investigate the potential and limitations of current and possible future approaches to mountain forest management for the Provision
of portfolios of ES under current and future climatic and socio-economic conditions.
(2) To identify related risks and uncertainties.
(3) To translate the scientific state of knowledge about the efficient provision of multiple ES from mountain forests into decision Support
for policy makers and forest practitioners, so as to improve the robustness of planning tools in real-world decision making.
The ARANGE research sets focus on seven mountain regions across Europe. These seven regions cover the most important mountain forest types within the main biomes (continental, Mediterranean, boreal) and represent distinct biophysical conditions and governance settings. Generic themes across regions include (a) the identification of the relationships among the main ecosystem services (production, protection, climate change, nature conservation and biodiversity) along en¬vironmental gradients; (b) the analysis and further development of policy and governance frame¬works to foster multifunctional mountain forestry, (c) the identification of economically efficient management strategies for generic portfolios of ES from landowner and public perspectives; and (c) the exploration of the sensitivity of current management concepts to climatic and socio-economic uncertainties.
As a key concept of the ARANGE project regional stakeholder panels include representatives (managers, NGOs, forest administration service, SMEs operating in the case study regions) who have been identified to engage in a dialogue to present their concerns, experiences and insights for the development of relevant multifunctional management strategies, in mapping governance systems and planning approaches. The three core functions of stakeholder involvement will be (a) consultation, i.e. to identify issues, problems, conflicts and complementarities in implementing multi-functional forest management in the case study regions, (b) judgment and advice, i.e. linking science-based evidence with value-based attitudes to perceive a realistic picture of decision-making in case study areas, and (c) mutual learning both within a region and across regions
The specific scientific and technological objectives for the project were:
1.) To produce a consistent spatial and temporal database covering environmental conditions and current management practices and
approaches across the seven case study areas in major European mountain regions. Existing data will be compiled and new data will be collected, if required, to represent forest conditions in the case study areas. Expert knowledge and stakeholder views on current
management practices and approaches will be gathered and condensed to operational descriptions of silvicultural systems. Current
climate data and transient future climate change scenarios will be compiled and made available for the case study areas. Work Package WP1 will be responsible for these tasks.
2.) To adapt various forest ecosystem modelling tools to simulate past and future forest development in managed and unmanaged forests. ARANGE aims at mature forest models which can be readily applied to simulate forest development at stand and landscape scales under various climatic conditions. Emphasis will be placed on the ability of models to capture natural disturbances such as fire, wind and bark beetles. WP2 is responsible for this task.
3.) To define indicators and linker functions which characterize the provisioning of ES from forest model output in the case study areas. In a harmonized approach a set of indicators and linker functions will be defined which allow to characterize how well specific simulated and observed forest trajectories provide specific combinations of ES at different spatial scales. Key issue is to ensure the comparability of results across the case study areas. This task belongs to WP2.
4.) To analyse policy and governance conditions in the case study areas and to collect and design future scenarios of land use in European mountain areas. A comparative analysis across case study areas will show which policies and instruments at supranational, national and regional levels are driving forest management and the provisioning of ES. Likewise, ARANGE will study the governance systems in place in the different case study areas in order to understand current decision making procedures and to address the various stakeholder interests. All related tasks are embedded within WP3.
5.) To develop new and advanced methods to support multifunctional mountain forest management planning. Economic analysis and optimization, multi-criteria decision analysis and ES theories will be employed to design, evaluate and select from alternative management options. WP4 will combine monetary and preference-based approaches to address landowner and stakeholder perspectives.
6.) To facilitate stakeholder interaction in all case study regions and disseminate information and tools. WP6 is responsible to ensure a harmonized framework for stakeholder interaction processes in all case study regions.
7.) To provide the means and processes for transparent and efficient internal communication and to organize the dissemination of ARANGE findings and products to end users and stakeholders. Work Package WP7 is devoted to coordination and management and includes internal and external communication.
Project Results:
1.3 Description of the main S&T results/foregrounds
1.3.1 WP1 - Data & case study implementation
Objectives
WP1 set up the data platform for the project vital for the comparability of results and cross-case study analyses and established a harmonized data base for the input variables of the models used in WP2. This database describes the abiotic conditions and forest structures within and across case studies for the stand and landscape scales. The high heterogeneity of mountain landscape will be represented through key abiotic gradients (e.g. temperature, precipitation, slope, bedrock). Downscaled climate change scenarios were developed for each case study. Current forest management practices, planning processes and harvesting systems were documented in each case study and classified within a common framework. This allowed cross-case study comparison and realistic implementation of management operations in the forest models. These data were used to define the range of management practices to be explored in simulations of WP2 and a spatio-temporal web-based database to store and share these data was implemented.
Tasks
T1.1: Building a harmonized environmental data framework
T1.2: Climate scenario data for the case study regions
T1.3 Management practices & harvesting technology
T1.4: Current multifunctional forest planning techniques
T1.5: Design a spatial web database
Deliverables
D1.1 Historic climate data for case studies
For a set of representative sites in each Case Study Area (CSA) 100-year baseline climate data sets of daily weather data were generated from climate stations or E-OBS grid points. For each of the CSAs the stochastic weather generator LARS-WG was used to generate one basic 100-year daily climate data set comprising minimum and maximum temperature, as well as precipitation from an observation period from 1961 to 1990. Then the program MT-Clim was used to generate the specific baseline climate data sets for the representative sites according to altitudinal zones, slope and aspect employing lapse rates for temperature and precipitation. Vapor pressure deficit and radiation were estimated from temperature and precipitation data. This baseline climate data sets were used to drive forest simulation models.
D1.2 Catalogue of harmonized environmental variables
The smallest planning and treatment unit in silviculture is usually called “stand” (biology focused) or “compartment” (planning focused). A “stand” is defined as a forest area with (more or less) homogeneous conditions regarding to (i) site conditions, (ii) tree species composition, (iii) stand structure, (iv) tree age, (v) management objectives, and (vi) silvicultural treatments. The area size of such stands / compartments ranges from about 0.5ha to areas as large as 10-20ha, depending on attributes as listed above. Ownership characteristics play an important role as well.
In order to provide a common data base regarding site and stand conditions for all partners involved in implementing the ARANGE work plan the forest conditions in each ARANGE CSA was characterized by a set of “Representative Stands” (RST). To study implications of forest management at scales beyond the stand level at least one “Representative Landscape” (RL) per CSA was defined as well. RSTs and RLs, on one hand, are meant to provide the base to assess current management practices and its implications for ecosystem service provisioning, on the other hand the RSTs and RLs should also allow to explore potential alternative management regimes in the CSAs. Per CSA between 20 and 50 RSTs were defined and subsequently used in the model simulations.
D1.3 Current and historical forest management practices
The main objective was to gather data on current and historical forest management and harvesting and logging technologies within each case study area (CSA). Data were gathered through several questionnaires. In each case study area current (business-as-usual - BAU) forest management concepts were described as silvicultural systems covering the entire life cycle of a representative stand type (RST), including the related harvesting and logging technologies. The level of detail has been chosen in a way that the information can be used to implement BAU management in forest simulation models. For harvesting approaches a survey was also done at representative landscape level to cover attributes beyond stand sclae such as road density. In total silvicultural systems for 197 RSTs are available in this Deliverable and can be compared across European mountain regions. Quantitative data on historical forest management was available from five CSAs. These data cover several decades of regional or stand level forest development and were then used to analyze historic development of ES indicators and how these were influenced by changes in management regimes.
D1.4 Climate change scenarios for case studies
Deliverable D1.4 makes climate change and its uncertainty accessible to ARANGE. Based on the ensemble of regional climate simulations from the EU FP6 project ENSEMBLE a set of five transient simulations (representing uncertainty) is statistically downscaled to each of the seven ARANGE case study regions by means of quantile mapping. Each of the downscaled climate change scenarios is represented by time series of 100 years (2001 to 2100) on daily basis for temperature (minimum, maximum, mean), precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and solar radiation. Together with the historic baseline climate (D1.1) the total of 6 climate scenarios represented the potential future range of climatic conditions for the model simulations.
D1.5 ARANGE database
The ARANGE DataBase has been developed to store output of forest model simulation runs from WP2 (Task 2.4) and to enable the consistent analysis of ecosystem service provision by forests across all ARANGE case study areas (Task 2.4 Task 5.1). The model output format is based on the variables defined in deliverable D2.2 (Models and linker functions (indicators) for ecosystem services). The output of forest models is structured in three tables per simulation run: (i) state variables, (ii) flow variables, (iii) management operations. Most of the metadata providing context information is contained in the file names (case study area, representative stand type, management scheme, landscape plan, climate scenario, forest model). The file triplets are uploaded to the ARANGE DataBase server by the modeling groups. Partners are entitled to use data for analysis.
WP2 – Quantification and assessment of ecosystem services
Objectives
The objective of WP2 was to (i) adjust and further develop (if required) state-of-the-art models for the projection of forest dynamics and the assessment of ecosystem services (ES) , and (ii) to apply these tools to simulate past, current and future forest development and related ES. Based on simulated trajectories of ES, the relationships among ES at different spatial scales will be analysed in WP5. For specified portfolios of ES, improved stand management concepts will be identified at the case study level utilizing, among others, information from the stakeholder dialogue (via WP6), optimized management approaches (via WP4) and feedback from WP5 (integration and synthesis).
Tasks defined in DoW
T2.1: Set-up models of forest dynamics for the case study areas
T2.2: Models and tools to assess ecosystem services
T2.3 Analysis of historic time series of forest structure and ES
T2.4: Simulation of forest development and resulting ES
Deliverables
D2.1 Improved and tested forest models for case study regions
Forest models are valuable tools that permit us to simulate forest dynamics at high accuracy and detail at different spatio-temporal scales. This is important to evaluate the spatial interdepend-encies of ecosystem goods and services. A wide range of state-of-the-art models of forest dynam-ics have been developed by the modeling partners of the ARANGE consortium. The set of forest models available in ARANGE includes both stand-level and landscape-level approaches, i.e. PICUS [BOKU]; ForClim and LandClim [ETHZ]; SAMSARA/CAPSIS [IRSTEA]; Heureka [SLU]; SIBYLA [NFC]; and BIOME-BGC [BOKU]. In the first project year, model development and adaptation of the models to the ARANGE Case Study Areas (CSAs) has taken place; some models were applied preliminarily in several ARANGE CSAs, while others were tested mainly in one CSA. Most of the models were improved in terms of their structure and be-havior with respect to a range of features. Overall, the forest models available in ARANGE have been tested for a wide range of conditions in the CSAs, and they have been set up so as to be ready for model application in the CSAs under specific site conditions, using measured stand data for model initialization. In three Case Study Areas (CSA2, CSA3, CSA7) more than one model was readily available for ecosystem service analysis and allowed us to quantify uncertainties related to model errors. This task has been implemented in close contact with the development of ecosystem service indicators and related linker functions (Task 2.2).
D2.2 Models and linker functions (indicators) for ecosystem services
A key element in the ARANGE workplan was the harmonized definition of ecosystem service indicators which can be supported by output from All forest models in ARANGE via linker functions. In D2.2 the ES indicators and related linker functions that will be implemented by forest growth models in order to assess ecosystem services related to wood production, carbon storage, biodiversity preservation and protection against natural hazards are presented. Suggestions are also made for wood energy biomass and game hunting, two ecosystem services that will be considered in some specific case study areas of the ARANGE project. Overall, the core set comprised of 15 ES indicators, with another 7 indicators as optional. For each linker function, we provide its definition, justification and the equations and algorithms for its operational implementation. We also provide perspectives how to adapt the linker functions at the landscape scale and to permit cross case studies comparisons. Overall, this achievement is ground-breaking and a huge step forward towards reliable and comparable ES quantification and analysis.
D2.3 Analysis of historic & current forest management practices, forest dynamics and related ES
In this Deliverable, forest Ecosystem Service (ES) indicators are analyzed following two approaches.
First, in five ARANGE Case Study Areas (CSAs) historic inventory data and management records were used to study the development of ES indicators over several decades. The indicators showed that the importance of timber production has increased during the analyzed period in all CSAs in terms of both timber stocking and productivity. Similarly, following the trend in stand stocking, the provisioning of carbon storage has also increased in all CSAs. However, indicators of biodiversity conservation differed significantly between the CSAs. Management systems that are creating even-aged stands (i.e. clear-cutting system, uniform shelterwood system) decreased the indicators, whereas those techniques that are promoting uneven-aged structures led to an increase in biodiversity indices.
Of particular interest for those CSAs where the management regime had changed during the historic period was whether the ES indicators showed a response that could be attributed to management. However, results from Spain and Slovenia, where such a management change occurred, showed that changes in the provision of ES cannot be attributed unequivocally to management changes, as a multitude of factors are involved.
Second, there is a broad spectrum of silvicultural systems used as Business-As-Usual (BAU) management in the seven ARANGE CSAs. In three CSAs, uneven-aged management regimes are in use, in the Spanish CSA the coppice system is also an element of current management. There is no evident relationship between the management objectives (i.e. demand for ES) in the CSAs and the BAU management. However, even-aged systems based on small- to medium-scale clear-cutting appear to be the favored silvicultural system when timber production is the major ES that is demanded. To some extent tradition seems also to play a role in determining the management regime.
Simulation studies with state-of-the-art forest models showed that there are limitations of BAU with regard to the maintenance of biodiversity, particularly regarding species and structural diversity as well as deadwood abundance. An issue not fully represented by the models is the impact of disturbances such as bark beetles and windstorms. Just in one CSA (Montafon) bark beetle damages were considered explicitly in the simulations.
When BAU management was simulated under a set of climate change scenarios, a substantial variation regarding ES provision resulted, depending on the climate scenarios. Furthermore, the typical altitudinal gradient in mountain regions was reproduced, with mainly negative impacts on forest growth at low elevations due to increasing summer drought and species shifts from conifers to broadleaved species, while at higher altitudes growth benefits from longer vegetation periods and more favorable thermal regimes. This was a consistent finding in all CSAs. However, it is important to note that scenario simulations that do not consider disturbance regimes are likely too optimistic. Intensifying disturbance regimes bear the potential to severely impact ES provision, such as timber production, carbon storage and protection against gravitational hazards.
Another potential conflict exists in small-scale ownership structures, where demand for timber production (usually the interest of forest owners) and the need to protect against rockfall, snow avalanches and erosion and landslides meet. No segregative approaches are possible when ownership size is too small to disentangle ES. However, approaches to balance (i.e. integrate) ES such as timber and protection by fine-grained small-scale silviculture may be severely hampered by technical and economic constraints regarding feasible harvesting technologies.
These results call for the design of ES portfolios with no or low conflict potential and a partial segregation of ES provisioning at the landscape scale. From the BAU simulations, we conclude that setting aside larger areas in coniferous mountain forests may be no option due to intensifying disturbance regimes, which may jeopardize key ES such as protective services.
D2.4 Database on simulated ecosystem services
As output from task 2.4 stand level simulations of BAU and “adapted management” alternatives under historic climate and 5 climate change scenarios and related ES indicators were available. In total 5057 stand level simulation runs were executed and resulting ecosystem service indicators stored in the ARANGE database. All partners have access to these data during the project life of ARANGE. Thus, use of data for analysis and cross case study comparison is encouraged. This, in the end will improve the scientific output in terms of SCI papers.
Already during the ARANGE project the database with output from Task 2.4 greatly supported the synthesis tasks 5.1 and 5.2 in WP5. Deliverables 5.1 and 5.2 could not have been produced in such a comprehensive and efficient way without Task 2.4 and The ARANGE DataBase functionalities.
The ARANGE DataBase is also integral component of the Decision Support ToolBox being prepared in Task 4.4 (see Deliverables D4.4 and D4.5). An interface between the ARANGE data format and the tools for ES assessment and forest management planning in the ToolBox has been developed and fully implemented. The ToolBox including the database will be freely available in the internet after completion of the project. Thus, useability of ARANGE simulation data on ecosystem service provisioning will be available also AFTER termination of the ARANGE project.
The ToolBox supports two user types: (i) the forest manager (being a non-expert in modelling and analysis) and (ii) the analyst who can make in-depth use of data and analysis tools in the toolbox [afm-toolbox.net].
1.3.2 WP3 – Baseline Policy and Governance
Objectives
The objective of this work package was to analyse (a) EU and national policies and how these policies affect mountain forest management and the provision of multiple ecosystem services in the case study regions, and (b) governance systems in the case study regions focused on multi-functionality of mountain forest landscapes. Specifically, this work package aimed at: (1) identifying relevant policies and policy instruments both at EU and at case study level influencing mountain forest management and the provision and consumption of ecosystem services and discussing the congruence between broad macro-level policy discourses and micro-level policy implementation measures; (2) reviewing available land use change scenarios for EU27 with focus on their relevance for the case study regions, identifying main drivers of land use change in the case study regions and analyse their likely impact on the demand for and/or supply of ecosystem services from mountain forests and; (3) analysing the public and corporate governance systems for the implementation of multifunctional mountain forest management in the case study regions providing a context analysis for the case study regions.
Tasks as defined in DoW
• T3.1: Policy framework analysis
• T3.2: Future scenarios of mountain forest land use
• T3.3 Governance systems
• T3.4 Case study analysis
Deliverables
D3.1 Report policy framework as related to multifunctional mountain forest management
Deliverable D3.1 as product of Task 3.1 is concerned with the identification and analysis of policies related to multifunctional mountain forest management. There are two perspectives taken: the macro-level policy framework – looked at European and international policies. Its aim was to collect and evaluate data from all trans- and international policies relevant to forest policies in mountain areas. The macro-level policy analysis utilised the ARANGE Forest Policy Database that contains legislation and policy documents that relates directly to forests, forest management and the mountain landscape. And second, the micro-level policy framework – analysed national policies. The analysis was based on a ARANGE guidelines for national policy reports. National policy reports were elaborated by each Case Study Area team for the respective country. All reports were compared and analysed to find similarities and differences in national and regional policies related to multifunctional mountain forestry.
D3.2 Future scenarios of mountain forest land use in the case study regions
ARANGE Deliverable D3.2 provides a review of different approaches to scenario development, based on an evaluation of several projects and reports having developed scenarios. The purpose of the review was in part to identify current and upcoming challenges facing mountain areas and forests as well as to define the best approach for developing a scenario for ARANGE. Using results from the review, the deliverable then sets out to develop a baseline (or business-as-usual) scenario, in the form of a narrative, that addresses the main environmental concerns facing European mountain areas and forests as a whole. The baseline scenario narrative is centred around driving forces identified in the review that in turn have been analysed by each case study group as regards the direction of change these may take. This has also allowed for the development of regional specific scenarios and the basis for understanding how key drivers may have an impact on mountain forests and relevant ecosystem services. Using the scenario development process as a framework, Deliverable 3.2 explores plausible future pathways in more detail; provides a qualitative framework for the modelling of ecosystem service provision; thinks about management alternatives for the case studies; and provides a basis for the models to describe future developments. Overall, D3.2 is useful knowledge for developing strategies for future mountain forest policies and management and suitable for policy makers and forest managers as well.
D3.3 SCI paper on governance systems
The objective of this deliverable was to map and analyze governance systems relevant for the implementation of multifunctional mountain forest management in all seven cases study areas of ARANGE. We surveyed with a structured questionnaire 27 case study managers inquiring about the following elements of governance: participation and stakeholders interactions, inter-sectoral coordination, multi-level coordination, decision structures and processes, responsibilities, and use of expertise. The governance modes of mountain forests in Europe basically support multifunctional management. However, the implementation of multifunctional management differs among the respective areas mostly due to the local site-specific conditions rather than by governance context. The results of this study were useful in formulating appropriate recommendations to policy makers in Deliverable 5.3.
The deliverable has been published meanwhile in Forestry Journal [http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/forj].
1.3.3 WP4 – Improved Planning
Objectives
The WP objective was to develop new and advanced methods and tools to support planning of multifunctional forest management. This comprises: (1) Designing improved operational planning procedures including multifunctional, decision-oriented forest inventories and participative mapping and prioritisation of management objectives; (2) Improving existing methods and techniques for socio-economic analysis and to develop new methods and algorithms for trade-off analysis and optimization of management strategies for multiple ES; methods which will be explored include “hard” OR like mathematical programming and “soft” multi-criteria decision analysis approaches; (3) Designing and implementing architecture and functionality of a generic web-based decision support tool box for multifunctional forest management planning. The tool box will be populated with methods and tools developed in WP4 and WP2. The tools and methods developed in WP4 will be applied in case study specific analyses as well as in a comparative generic analysis across all case studies.
Tasks
T4.1: Improved data acquisition for forest management planning
T4.2: Optimization tools for multifunctional forest management
T4.3 Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methods for prioritization and selection of silvicultural management alternatives and harvesting systems
T4.4: Web-based Decision Support Tool Box
Deliverables
D4.1 Manuscript on improved data acquisition for multifunctional mountain forest
This is an overview of the data acquisition methods, incl. field survey and remote sensing, used for forest management planning in European multifunctional mountain forestry. Criteria and indicators for assessing the major ecosystem services are introduced and linked with assessment methodologies. It includes the survey results on the current practice on data and data acquisition methods in the ARANGE case study areas. Technological details of terrestrial methods are given in an extended Annex to D4.1. In a combined application in the ARANGE Case Study Area CSA3 (Montafon, Eastern Alps in Austria) a terrestrial forest inventory was implemented parallel and in close agreement with a airborne RS campaign which employed hyper-spectral LIDAR methods.
It is apparent that the individual ecosystem functions are not equal in how they are considered in forest management planning. Traditionally, the productive function remains important also in mountain forestry, together with biodiversity and protection against gravitational natural hazards. However, carbon and climate issues are way apart from the forest management practice and planning. Climate change mitigation is a top-down driven policy that has not reached the operational forest management planning, which is reflected by the general absence of explicit criteria and indicators in the forest management planning and inventories linked to it. On the contrary, monitoring of biodiversity issues, is well supported by the current forest management inventories and planning process.
It is evident that most of the indicators required for monitoring ecosystem functions are based on field assessment or sharing existing map and data sources, and less so from remote sensing.
Remote sensing approaches in general show growing importance in supporting forest management planning by providing not only spatial information, but also including structural elements of forest stands (LIDAR methods).
Forest management planning is mostly based on stand and site level information. Since the modern remote sensing data may be focused on both tree and stand, it is apparent that an optimal data acquisition strategy should combine field survey and remote sensing, exploiting the best of the two approaches.
D4.2 manuscript on multi-criteria decision aid in selecting mountain forest
Within the ARANGE project several research teams had ample experience with forest planning in general and multi-criteria decision analysis in particular. From the discussions during meetings and throughout project life via emails and phone calls ideas about the use of MCDA in mountain forest managementplanning were exchanged. These ideas were subsequently shaped into a scientific paper which is enclosed in the Annex of this deliverable. Based on this experiences and the potential usefulness of MCDA methods for forest analysis and planning a MCDA tool has also been implemented in the DS ToolBox (see D4.5).
Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision aid frequently used in the field of forest management planning. It includes the evaluation of multiple criteria such as the production of timber and non-timber forest products and tangible as well as intangible values of ecosystem services (ES). Hence, it is beneficial compared to those methods that take a purely financial perspective. Accordingly, MCDA methods are increasingly popular in the wide field of sustainability assessment. Hybrid approaches allow aggregating MCDA and, potentially, other decision-making techniques to make use of their individual benefits and leading to a more holistic view of the actual consequences that come with certain decisions. This review is providing a comprehensive overview of hybrid approaches that are used in forest management planning. Today, the scientific world is facing increasing challenges regarding the evaluation of ES and the trade-offs between them, for example between provisioning and regulating services. As the preferences of multiple stakeholders are essential to improve the decision process in multi-purpose forestry, participatory and hybrid approaches turn out to be of particular importance. Accordingly, hybrid methods show great potential for becoming most relevant in future decision making. Based on the review presented here, the development of models for the use in planning processes should focus on participatory modeling and the consideration of uncertainty regarding available information.
A paper based on D4.2 has already been published in Environmental Management [DOI 10.1007/s00267-015-0503-3].
D4.3 Manuscript on optimization of multifunctional mountain forest
Maintaining multifunctionality of forests is a crucial task with changing climate and increasing demands from society. In forest management planning explicit consideration of multiple Es is still rare in traditional approaches. We combined forest growth simulations with a risk-integrating economic optimization tool to derive management plans for different climate scenarios, to investigate interdependencies between different forest services, as well as to provide economic information regarding the costs for providing certain services at the enterprise level. To do so, long-term growth projections for various tree species are coupled with different management scenarios.
Under the lead of TUM the optimizer tool YAFO was further developed and applied to analyse optimized management options in two case study areas Montafon (Austria) and Goat Backs Mountains (Kozie Chrbty, Slovakia). The optimization was done under the baseline scenario as well as under climate change conditions. Additionally, a minimum stock scenario was introduced to simulate the effects of climate change on providing an ecosystem service like protection against rockfall and avalanches. Modelling and results were compiled in Deliverable 4.3 and presented at the conference “Mountain Forest Management in a Changing World”, 7-9 July 2015, Smokovce, High Tatra Mountains, Slovakia. General recommendations from the study were the reduction of the overaged stocking volume within several decades to establish new ingrowth leading to an overall reduction of age and related risk as well as an increase in growth. Under climate change conditions the admixing of hardwoods to softwood stands should be emphasized to count for the changing risk and growth conditions. The principles of increasing tree species richness, increasing structural diversity, replacing high-stand risks and reducing average growing stocks are important preconditions for a successful sustainable management of European mountain forests in the long term. A manuscript of the study was submitted to Canadian Journal of Forest Research and is currently under revision. As alternative method to optimized forest management planning a Goal Programming (GP) approach has been applied to the Spanish and Austrian case study areas by INIA and BOKU.
D4.4 Prototype of web-based DSToolBox for multifunctional forest management &
D4.5 Improved DSToolBox version 1.0 for multifunctional forest management
ARANGE has the ambition to support managers and analysts in forest management planning also after termination of the project. There fore it was decided to further develop and enhance the frame and functionalities of an existing decision support toolbox (the AFM-ToolBox) and make this enhanced version publicly available via the internet.
Functionalities of the AFM ToolBox were extended so that they fitted the ARANGE DataBase and retrieval of data as well as use of ARANGE data by already existing tools in the AFM ToolBox made possible. Based on the available AFM ToolBox new decision support tools were developed and implemented within Task 4.4. Major focus within ARANGE was on the development of tool for the analysis of ES indicators at landscape scale (LAT). This tool was successfully implemented and integrated in the AFM ToolBox. Furthermore, the multi-criteria analysis tool in the AFM ToolBox was generalized and is now also applicable to mountain forest problem settings. The Mixed-Integer programming optimizer has been extended and can now also use data from the ARANGE DataBase. In addition, new content on mountain forest management and the ARANGE case study areas was created.
The system architecture of the ToolBox comprising of the major tool box components, their formal design and implementation as software modules is introduced. The ToolBox is implemented as a combination of web based and native applications was chosen (hybrid approach). The tools in the ToolBox as well as the ToolBox itself are designed as web applications. This allows for tool developers a straightforward technical integration of different tools into the ToolBox, and for users a simple access to the functionalities of the ToolBox on a web server. For advanced users the local installation of the entire ToolBox within its web frame is possible. Technically, the tools and the ToolBox are web applications and can be accessed and operated with a web browser. Own simulation results can be used by either uploading the data to the server, or by using a local installation of the whole ToolBox. Major components of the ToolBox are the MOTIVE DataBase, the ARANGE DataBase, the DataClient to transfer model otput produced externally to the ToolBox into the DataBase, the Vulnerability Assessment tool, the Optimizer as well as a set of support functionalities. In the Prototype 1.0 version the Tool Integration framework (i.e. the actual “tool box”), the DataClient and the ARANGE DataBase as well as the Vulnerability Assessment tool and the Landscape Assessment Tool (LAT) are implemented and functional.
The ToolBox will be available after project termination at http://www.afm-toolbox.net.
WP5 – Integration and Synthesis
Objectives
This work package integrated the different data and information streams of the project to perform comparative analyses within and across case study regions and to achieve the general scientific synthesis of the project. The focus was on: (1) The interactions and trade-offs between ES and how they vary with spatial scale and levels of integration (from the stand of the landscape level; from full integration to complete segregation), between different regions, and as a function of the silvicultural regime; (2) Identifying the direct and indirect effects (via adaptation measures) of climate change on the provision of ES; (3) Testing the Decision Support Tool Box in selected case study regions; (4) Devise new silvicultural systems integrating key findings on the interaction of ES and the compatibility of harvesting systems and silvicultural regimes in order to optimize the provision of ES; (5) Formulate best-practices and recommendations to resource managers on how to implement efficient multifunctional mountain forest management and; (6) Formulate recommendations to policy makers on how to preserve and foster the multi-functionality of European mountain forest landscapes.
Tasks
T5.1: Trade-offs in ES
T5.2: Revised silvicultural systems for portfolios of ES
T5.3 Implications for policy making & governance
T5.4: Application of the Decision Support Tool Box for advanced multifunctional mountain forest management.
Deliverables
D5.1 Manuscript on interaction effects and trade-offs among different ecosystem services
We provide a brief overview of some approaches developed and results obtained in ARANGE to study the effect of climate change on ecosystem services as well as trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services, based on business-as-usual management (BAU) scenarios. This overview if followed by a synthesis. Two manuscripts have been prepared so far based on material from D5.1: (1) one addressing the effect of climate change on the provision of ecosystem services at the stand scale for BAU scenarios in five case study areas (Mao et al., in prep); (2) the other addressing the effect of climate change on ecosystem services at the landscape scale for the Austrian case study area (Irauscheck et al., in revision, Reg Environ Change). A special issue in Reg Environ Change will provide complementary results for other case study areas.
Using individual based forest dynamics models, we estimated and compared the evolution of four ecosystems services (timber production, carbon stock, biodiversity conservation and protection against natural hazards) of mountain forest stands under current management, in case study areas from six European countries for 100 years until 2100. Despite a strong effect of case study area, the impact of climate change on ecosystem service followed rather similar trends in the different case studies areas. Yet, the impact could be significantly moderated by climatic conditions of each study site. Overall, this study suggests that the current forest management in Europe might not be safe enough for stable ecosystem services provision in the future.
The first 40 years until 2050 can be considered a relative safe stage, since the proportion of sites where ES provisioning shift increased slowly. From the third 20-year period, the proportion of sites where the shift in ES provisioning was projected to be either in gain or in loss increased in a pronounced number but in generally linear manner. The vulnerability of ecosystem services differs greatly between ecosystem services. Increasingly, almost all climate change scenarios terminate this safe stage at the same time around 2050. Climate change does not have an instantaneous effect, but become very destructive in mid and long term after a cumulative stage. Accordingly, the first 20-40 years may thus be considered a “buffer stage” in which human beings should make the most effort to prevent the occurrence of the ES shift if sustainable provision of ES portfolios is required.
D5.2 Recommendations for multifunctional forest management strategies
Synthesis Deliverable D5.2 provides an overview on currently used silvicultural and harvesting systems, the evaluation of their efficiency and suitability for provisioning of portfolio of ecosystem services (ES), and recommendations and possible improvements regarding utilization of forest management systems in mountain forests, considering the interdependency of silvicultural systems and technically feasible harvesting systems. It consolidated all the results from the previous tasks within the ARANGE project, some information were gathered by questionnaires. The results showed that the performance and efficiency of currently used silvicultural and harvesting systems related to BAU forest management in regard to provisioning the demanded portfolio of ES were satisfactory in most CSAs. However, surprising was that no obvious relationship was detected between the demanded ES (i.e. management objectives) and the BAU forest management approaches. Nevertheless, current forest management practices in European mountain forests need adaptations and improvements in order to be more efficient in providing demanded ES and to cope climate change. To adapt stands to possible climate change, sufficient adaptations and modifications within the BAU forest management are feasible. In general, these changes should not alter the BAU forest management practices, but should only complement and adjust them to specific needs of ES demands or climate change adaptation. The recommendation of one single general multifunctional forest management approach in European mountain forests is not appropriate or reasonable. Forest management must be adapted to stand, site and climate conditions as well as to demands of forest owners and stakeholders for provisioning ES. Since the frame conditions as well as the environment (e.g. climate) are subjected to constant changes, forest management strategies need to be flexible and adaptive to be able to cope with them. However, time lags in decision making and in forest response to changes in management regimes limit the ability to follow such changes instantly. This conclusion does not invalidate the principles of the adaptive forest management approach but emphasizes the limitations of a command and control approach in forest management under uncertainty.
D5.2 is a useful source of information for forest managers as well as policy makers. And will be further developed into (a) a scientific paper, and (b) a policy brief.
D5.3 Policy frameworks to secure the multifunctionality of mountain forests
Deliverable D5.3 is summarising the current policy framework for mountain forest management aimed at ensuring the provision of the key ecosystems services looked at by ARANGE project and to identify options for further policy changes and their implications for multifunctional forest management, both on European and regional levels. This work is based on two earlier reports: ARANGE Deliverable D3.1 (“Policy Frameworks as related to multifunctional mountain forest management”), and ARANGE Deliverable D3.3 (“Analysis of governance systems applied in multifunctional forest management in selected European mountain regions”). It is, amongst other things, argued that the current platforms and instruments affecting mountain areas in Europe do not provide an effective or clear solution to promote multifunctional forest management, despite the fact that multifunctional forest management is already practically being implemented in all ARANGE case study areas. From the summarised results, this deliverable presents a general suite of challenges that may be seen as generic for forest management, generic for rural areas or specific for mountain forest management. The underlying purpose of this has been to gain a better understanding of the best policy level to address mountain forest policy and make coordination effective, as well as to define a possible way ahead. Some of the key issues that have been noted concern the balancing of ecosystem services provision and the role of science; strengthening local stakeholder involvement; enhancing regional initiatives; and Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES), economic oriented market instruments and economic incentives.
A scientific paper based on D5.3 is under preparation, a policy brief is planned as a post project activity.
D5.4 Documentation of DSToolBox application in selected case study regions
In this report the application of selected tools and functionalities of the enhanced AFM ToolBox is demonstrated by means of (a) case description and question(s) addressed, and (b) a screen shot series to demonstrate the application of toolbox elements to address the question(s).
We focus on three key elements: (1) demonstrating the use of the ARANGE database in the context of the toolbox. Data retrieval and explorative analysis is shown. (2) the MCDA tool to rank management options depending on stakeholder and user demands is shown by example from data from the Bulgarian case study CSA7. (3) The newly developed spatial Landscape Assessment Tool (LAT) is introduced and demonstrated in the Austrian case study (CSA3). This includes the set-up of an application based on forest inventiory and remote sensing data, mapping of selected ES indicators at different spatial resolution, and a 3D visualization of the landscape.
This Deliverable is useful for interested users of the AFM ToolBox.
Potential Impact:
1.4 The potential impact, main dissemination activities and exploitation of results
1.4.1 Potential impact
The following topics (impacts) were identified ex-ante and envisaged to be addressed specifically by the project: (1) assist mountain communities in managing their forests to meet various demands (e.g. feeding sawmills, bioenergy, recreation, conservation of biodiversity, protection against gravitational hazards); (2) provide a set of advanced management tools, policy recommendations, guidelines and/or multi-criteria decision support systems; (3) contribute to the development of strategies to foster socio-economic activities in more marginal mountain regions; (4) help preserve important environmental functions of European mountain forests; (5) support the implementation of international and European commitments for the protection of forests; and (6) project results should be of interest and potential benefits to SMEs.
In this regard, a brief ex-post evaluation of the main outputs of ARANGE shall depict the potential wider societal impact of the project.
With the ambition of “Knowledge-Based Bio-Economy” (KBBE) projects to particularly produce useful knowledge that can be directly used by an array of end-users the ARANGE project initiated stakeholder related processes in the beginning of its lifetime. To attain impacts at various levels within European societies multiple target groups have been identified, understanding forest and land owners, forest professionals, policy makers, as well as small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) amongst the key target users. In principle two distinct project deliverables described the framework and thus provided the basis for disseminating project results to both, stakeholders on the inside as well as at the outside of the ARANGE project. The deliverable D 6.2 “Stakeholder engagement plan” elaborated on the various scales of stakeholder participation, addressing target audiences from local to international levels, and set the framework for a harmonized stakeholder approach across the seven Case Study Areas (CSAs) of ARANGE. Processes and rules for the nomination of a Case Study Responsible (CSR) for each CSA, the formal constitution of Regional Stakeholder Panels (RSPs) as well as the establishment of a Case Study Task Force (CSTF) were central elements of this report. Additionally, guidelines on the identification, selection and mapping of relevant stakeholders and procedures regarding a regular reporting of stakeholder interaction needs and activities were defined for that purpose. Each of them had to be addressed by various dissemination activities utilizing a set of dissemination materials that were specifically tailored towards their individual needs. A detailed description thereof is available in the report D 6.3 “Dissemination plan”.
Corporate branding of ARANGE documents built the frame for achieving this goal. Further instruments to support visibility and impact were:
Media and communication
Meetings, Workshops and Trainings
Science Conference
Decision Support Tool Box (DSToolBox)
Policy Brief
Education
All these different means of dissemination led to wide-spread distribution of key findings of ARANGE to a broad audience on various levels within European society.
Collaboration of all partners was a prerequisite for streamlining activities with regard to distribution of project outcomes. Building upon the Regional Stakeholder Panels (RSP) in the case study regions, dialogue between ARANGE partners and regional interest groups was forced in order to share information both from inside (i.e. ARANGE consortium) and outside (i.e. all external stakeholders) the project. As a prerequisite for targeted knowledge generation and transfer, the members of the RSPs were involved in identifying knowledge gaps, information needs, current management approaches, current and future demand for ecosystem services as well as perceived risks. Stakeholder interaction inter alia (a) focused research efforts within ARANGE, (b) helped in mapping current management practices, (c) provided archetypical regional preference profiles for the assessment of value-based trade-offs in ecosystem services, and (d) provided a sounding board for practical recommendations originating from the project. Thus the RSPs served both as a source of learning about needs and perceptions of mountain forestry stakeholders as well as an experimental plot to proof the ARANGE concept, an essential element in order to considerably improve the state-of-the-art in sustainable mountain forest management – the key objective of the ARANGE project.
Linking the active participation in the CSAs and ARANGE research findings, the following advancements are expected to contribute to the future development of sustainable mountain forest management and thus, positively affect the provision of ecosystem services with wide benefits for mountain communities and society in general.
Climate Change scenarios
Based on the ensemble of regional climate simulations from the EU FP6 project „ENSEMBLE“ a set of five transient simulations (representing uncertainty) was statistically downscaled to each of the seven ARANGE case study regions in order to assess the effects of a changing climate on the future provision of ecosystem services in major European mountain ranges. Each of the downscaled climate change scenarios was represented by time series of 100 years (2001 to 2100) on daily basis for temperature, precipitation, water vapor deficit, and solar radiation. The reference data was given by a baseline climate based on observational data. The CC scenarios served as the driving data set for the forest models in order to assess the range of uncertainty with regard to model projections of future scenarios on the provision of ES from mountain forest ecosystems that highlight the ecological and socio-economic effects in the long run.
“Business-as-usual” (BAU) management identification & simulation of results
A lot of effort was spent to derive at a current state of forest management practices in the CSAs, often referred to as “business-as-usual” forest management (BAU-FM) that represents the normal course of silvicultural measures over the entire life cycle of a forest stand. Covering the analysis of current and historical forest management concepts as well as harvesting and logging techniques, in each of the CSAs a set of representative stand types was selected in collaboration with regional mountain forestry stakeholders to explicitly address currently practiced silvicultural regimes in the area. Operational descriptions of BAU-FM were then fed into the forest models to simulate the future development of the respective forest ecosystem. The results indicate effects of forest management concepts on the stand development and related forest ES. A “Special Issue” in the Journal “Regional Environmental Change” will deal with the exploitation of these findings and contribute to future mountain forest research.
Development of management alternatives and simulation of results
With the aim to improve the quality of life and to secure the sustainable provision of a set of selected ES in mountainous regions in Europe the ARANGE project targeted at the designation of alternative forest management approaches as potential pathways for mountain communities to cope with climate change and related effects. Within a three-stage iterative process including i) a survey amongst forest professionals, ii) expert consultation, and iii) a delphi-like approach to study the differences according to BAU-FM, a core group of silvicultural experts derived at operational descriptions of forest management alternatives for each CSA. The simulations shall give insights to the consequences of adaptive forest management and provide a basis for decision making in forest management planning.
Decision Support Tool Box
incl. MCDM and Optimization
The Decision Support Tool Box (DSToolBox) is a web-based application and consists of an array of tools that aim to assist forest managers in the sustainable management of their forests under changing climate. Including background information, approaches and principles to adaptive management, interactive tools to support forest management planning, examples across Europe and a collection of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) it provides a generic decision analysis approach and guides the user through a planning and decision making process. Its open access strategy allows for broad distribution amongst forestry stakeholders and supports its use in diverse settings for forest management planning. The further development and application in future research or R&D projects due to its maintenance by the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna can thus be guaranteed in addition.
Model development and application
A wide range of state-of-the-art models of forest dynamics, including both stand- and landscape level approaches, have been developed by consortium partners and were applied across the Case Study Areas (CSAs) of ARANGE. During the project most of the models were improved in terms of their structure and behavior with respect to a range of features, focusing on their applicability within a diverse range of environmental settings. It was one of the key tasks of ARANGE to test the models in different regions at various spatio-temporal scales inter alia to perform consistency and plausibility checks of model outputs.
Policy recommendations
Finally, the project aimed at feeding back major results to the target group outside the research community. It was particular WP5 and deliverables D5.2 and D5.3 who responded to this objective. D5.2 summarised the results of modelling of current and alternative management under different scenarios in an understandable format, and demonstrated the expected impacts on ecosystem service provision for each of the case studies. It was accompanied by a two-page fact sheet for the use of informing the regional stakeholder panels on major outcomes of this exercise.
In D5.3 the policy implications found in ARANGE were summarised. It captures the implications of cross-sectoral policies on mountain forest management, unravels the challenges that arise for mountain regions, and test option that might respond to this socio-economic environment. Written in a popular style, D5.3 can serve as an extended policy brief to be spread among the case studies and the respective stakeholders behind.
1.4.2 Main dissemination activities
Within the lifetime of ARANGE various dissemination activities facilitated the transfer of project related foreground amongst identified target audiences. As the extensive list of all activities is provided below (see Tables A1 + A2 chapter 2), the following description highlights only the most relevant achievements in this regard.
Direct exchange and meetings
Including the kick-off meeting in Vienna (2012) four General Assembly meetings have been organized that usually comprised of two days of indoor work, dedicated to the project and related tasks, and a one-day field trip. The excursion always referred to the case study area (CSA) and thus provided a means to raise awareness on regional aspects amongst the consortium partners as well as to guarantee direct knowledge-transfer between regional stakeholders who are actively involved in CSA related issues (e.g. via the Regional Stakeholder Panel) and the project team. As a follow-up activity after each of the project meetings, a short report on the event was published as sort of press release via the official ARANGE website and other dissemination channels (e.g. EFI news, Newsletter of partner organisations).
Additionally, a couple of stakeholder meetings were organized in each CSA for several reasons (e.g. data collection, stakeholder interests, action research, dissemination). A final feedback loop to the members of the Regional Stakeholder Panels was organized in each CSA until the end of the project lifetime. For this purpose a CSA specific Fact Sheet, in most cases translated to national languages, was prepared and used throughout the regions to hand back key results to its main supporters. The final versions of the Fact Sheets will be uploaded to the ARANGE website in order to provide brief insights to the work accomplished within the project particularly for interested stakeholders outside of ARANGE.
As a powerful tool to engage with third parties various workshops facilitated either problem solving or/and awareness raising. To stimulate the discussion on ARANGE results and hand back new knowledge generated, it was planned to conduct at least two training workshops in selected CSAs prior to project termination. In the W-Carpathian two training events focused on i) forest management principles under climate change with respect to the production of various timber assortments and ii) game management, its profitability and options for improvement. In the W-Rhodopes two meetings on forest marking were organized and aimed to recall the main points concerning the application of various silvicultural systems, to comment on new problems and to discuss current policy issues for mountain forest management.
Furthermore, an international stakeholder workshop was organized in the frame of the ARANGE science conference where the final day was dedicated to a concluding stakeholder event. In a panel discussion supported by representatives of MountFor, EUROMONTANA, the Slovenian Chamber of Agriculture and the European Commission, the question “what is needed, what can be learned from mountain forest research?” aimed at pinpointing the gaps and bridges between science, policy and practice - issues that were then taken up in an attached workshop on the way forward: “Towards a European Mountain Forest Research Agenda”.
As a concluding event, an open science conference titled “Mountain Forest Management in a Changing World” was organized. From 7-9 July 2015, ARANGE researchers gathered in the High Tatra Mountains (Slovakia) together with interested stakeholders from around the globe to discuss the potentials and limitations of current and possible future approaches to mountain forest management that aim at continuously providing portfolios of ecosystem services not only under current, but particularly under future climatic and socio-economic conditions. A distinct conference website was developed to exclusively highlight related content (http://www.nlcsk.sk/mfm-conference/Default.aspx). The conference announcement and call for abstracts was published three times and widely distributed amongst partner networks (e.g. Mountain Research Initiative, European Forest Institute and Regional Offices, BOKU Centre for International Relations). Finally, 130 participants including international researchers, international mountain forestry stakeholders and ARANGE consortium partners contributed with 48 oral as well as 31 poster presentations in 12 scientific sessions and provided thought-provoking insights to this multi-facetted topic. Three invited keynote speakers and four ARANGE key presentations, scheduled in the beginning of the Conference, provided a conceptual framework for the entire event. A field trip to the ARANGE Case Study Area (Kozi Chrbty Mountains, Spišská Teplica) in the afternoon of Day 2 (July, 8) allowed for direct knowledge transfer from practice to science and vice versa. At four thematic stops in selected forest stands regional stakeholders highlighted key challenges in the context of the provision of ecosystem services from mountain forests in their region. Topics addressed included: i) Wildlife management and hunting, ii) Conflicting Ecosystem Services, iii) Forest and Water, and iv) Climate Change and provided additional food for thought in related discussions with conference participants.
Information to stakeholders and interested parties
An effective way to deliver content to interested parties was setting up a short document highlighting key points of related topics in a concise way. WP 6 produced a series of fact sheets in order to promote the ARANGE project to various stakeholders.
It served a summary of important information for the introduction of ARANGE key issues, raising awareness of the main elements of the project and will be translated into various national languages that can be beneficial for participatory processes within the seven case study regions, i.e. (a) Bulgarian, (b) French, (c) German, (d) Slovakian, (d) Slovenian, (e) Spanish and (f) Swedish.
On the other hand, a leaflet was produced as a general means of information for broad distribution to potential audiences, e.g. in the EU institutions and Member States, at scientific meetings and/or conferences, for industry and other stakeholders.
1.4.3 Exploitation of results
The exploitation of results, and thus the use of foreground, shall be ensured by the project beneficiaries themselves. Within ARANGE several pathways to promote key project findings shall guarantee a broad distribution of new knowledge generated.
An array of PhD students from various partner organisations were involved in the project, thus facilitating knowledge-transfer via active promotion of their theses work (e.g. in PhD seminars, PhD defence). During a PhD-day organized at the European Forest Institute Project Center on Mountain Forests “MountFor” for instance, ARANGE was highlighted in a keynote speech by Dr. Bernhard Wolfslehner as well as in an oral paper presentation by MSc. Marco Mina (4 November 2014). Similar events with a particular focus on Early Stage Researchers (ESR) are organized throughout the year by various Research Organizations in Europe and offer the opportunity to distribute project findings amongst other PhD students and similar target groups.
Many of the ARANGE consortium partners are actively involved in educational and training programmes at European universities, ensuring that ARANGE results will be integrated into teaching programmes and seminars in forestry and related subjects. Thus, ARANGE foreground will spread quickly via international class rooms.
Beyond consultation, to foster social learning processes and education, it was one of the aims to conduct training workshops on selected ARANGE topics, particularly tailored towards forest managers and SMEs, in selected case study regions. Already within the lifetime of the project distinct trainings could be organized in two CSAs (i.e. W-Carpathians, W-Rhodopes). In most of the other CSAs training events are already envisaged for the near future, with a strong focus to spread ARANGE foreground amongst the members of the Regional Stakeholder Panels.
As a means to transpose scientific perception into political realm, policy briefs summarize topic related content in an understandable manner for further utilization of policy-makers. Those briefs need to be written concisely and shall point out key findings and major arguments to guarantee that complex problems can be understood by relevant authorities. A policy brief on the subject of multifunctional mountain forest management and coping with climate change and uncertainty will be designed to translate scientific information into non-technical and practical language and visual elements to support the main messages of ARANGE until the end of 2015.
The main product of ARANGE, the Decision Support Tool Box (DSToolBox) is implemented as an open access web-based application and consists of an array of tools that aim to assist forest managers in the sustainable management of their forests under changing climate. It provides a generic decision analysis approach and guides the user through a planning and decision making process consisting of four main steps: (1) assessing a given forest with regard to a profile of demanded ecosystem services (ES); (2) defining a finite number of forest management alternatives either directly available from the ARANGE knowledge base, as defined by the user with the management scenario writer, or as a result of an optimization procedure; (3) estimating the ES outcomes of the decision alternatives; (4) evaluating and comparing the alternatives with regard to a set of indicators representing the desired ES either in unilateral or group decision making environments.
To avoid licensing costs as well as intensive software installation in order to limit technical barriers for potential users ARANGE focused on a hybrid approach, providing the user with the opportunity to decide to which level of complexity the DSToolBox ought to support the planning process. More complex analysis and planning procedures, particularly model driven components, can be executed at the client side (i.e. the user downloads the tool chain to be used from the world wide web and runs the analysis on his/her desktop computer), data driven planning tools are available via the web.
A wide range of state-of-the-art models of forest dynamics, including both stand- and landscape level approaches, have been developed by consortium partners and were applied across the Case Study Areas (CSAs) of ARANGE. During the project most of the models were improved in terms of their structure and behaviour with respect to a range of features, focusing on their applicability within the project´s CSAs. The advances are subject to a range of scientific publications that promote the further use of such models for forest management planning.
All above mentioned activities shall support the uptake of ARANGE results into policy, practice and further research.
1.5 Project public website and relevant contact details
The official ARANGE website (http://www.arange-project.eu/) was implemented at the very beginning of the project and can still be seen as the main portal for the broader public. It was also the first visible sign of implementing the corporate design of ARANGE. The ARANGE identity is branded by a corporate design logo that has been produced under participation of all ARANGE partners to assure remarkable positioning of the project and foster recognition within various target groups.
Built upon the project acronym the main idea behind this logo is to deliver the multiplicity of mountain ranges via replacement of one character through a mountain symbol, highlighting multiple ecosystem services within the coloured circles (i.e. timber production, protection and biodiversity).
The official ARANGE website serves as the gateway for all parties external to the project (see Figure 4). It was and will be used as a window for the scientific teams, in order to present results, project related publications and other outputs (e.g. DSToolBox).
It was one of the obejectives to involve partners for specific contributions and to track R&D in the field of mountain forestry and forest ecosystem services to distribute relevant information via the project website and to link up with related initiatives. In total 9,402 sessions have been established by 6.556 users who on average visited 3,08 pages/visit with a session duration of 02:09 minutes. Taking into account that 30,2 % of the visitors were returning ones, 4.576 unique users could be recorded by the system so far. It can be expected that the numbers will continuously increase due to forthcoming dissemination of ARANGE results.
In line with web activities an ARANGE Facebook account was opened, offering blog-like information on the project and ongoing activities as well as further content with regard to similar topics of interest in a more generic way, including but not limited to mountain forestry, Sustainable forest management, ecosystem services, and biodiversity.
List of Websites:
www.arange-project.eu/
Coordinator:
Dr Manfred J. Lexer
ass. prof. for Silviculture & Vegetation modelling
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Forest and Soil Sciences
Institute of Silviculture
E-Mail: mj.lexer@boku.ac.at
ph.: 0043 1 47654 4056
As prerequisite for all other tasks in ARANGE seven Case Study Areas (CSAs) were set up in all major European mountain ranges. This included: (i) a set of representative stand types (RST) have been defined and stand and tree data has been made available via the internal communication platform; (ii) In addition in every CSA at least one representative spatially explicit landscape had been defined and GIS data provided to partners; (iii) In all CSAs baseline climate data has been prepared for an altitudinal gradient; (iv) by making use of the quantile mapping method five transient climate change scenarios (over 100 year period) have been downscaled in each CSA. The five climate change scenarios represent the uncertainty in future climatic conditions in these case study regions.
In all CSAs the currently practiced “business as usual” (BAU) management regime was gathered in and operational descriptions of silvicultural measures at the level of the Representative Stand Types (RST) were provided. Parallel to the establishment of the seven case Stuy Areas six forest simulation models were set up and tested for applicability in the CSAs and ecosystem service indicators were defined which on one hand are useful in describing specific ecosystems services and on the other can be linked to available model output variables. In total 22 indicators for four ecosystem services (timber and biomass production, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and habitat conservation, protection against landslides, avalanches and rockfall) were applicable in all case study areas.
To store output fom model simulations a harmonized data fromat and a spatial database were designed and implemented. In total 5057 stand level simulation runs were executed and resulting ecosystem service indicators stored in the ARANGE database.
For the analysis of ecosystem service provisioning ARANGE developed and applied non-linear optimization and goal programming techniques, multi-critera decision analysis approaches to rank alternative management options and advanced trade-off analysis aproaches such as Pareto frontier techniques. Functionalities of an availble decision support toolbox were extended with the ARANGE DataBase to secure the use of ARANGE data by already existing tools in ToolBox. Within ARANGE a tool for the analysis of ES indicators at landscape scale (LAT) was developed. Overall, the publicly available decision support ToolBox has the potential to support practical forest management planning and to transfer knowledge from science labs to endusers.
Model based analysis showed that the performance and efficiency of currently used silvicultural and harvesting systems in regard to provisioning the demanded portfolio of ES were satisfactory in most CSAs. However, surprising was that no obvious relationship was detected between the demanded ES (i.e. management objectives) and the currently practiced management approaches (BAU).
Historic data showed that indicators for timber production were increasing during the analyzed period in all CSAs in terms of both timber stocking and productivity. Similarly, following the trend in stand stocking, the provisioning of carbon storage has also increased in all CSAs. However, the development of indicators of biodiversity conservation differed significantly between the CSAs.
A key issue in future management of mountain forests will be the intensification of disturbance regimes. They are not yet fully represented by the available models. Overly optimistic conclusions may be drawn when disturbances are not considered properly. Just in one CSA (Montafon) bark beetle damages were considered explicitly in the simulations. Current forest management practices in European mountain forests need adaptations and improvements in order to be more efficient in providing demanded ES and to cope with climate change. To adapt stands to possible climate change, sufficient adaptations and modifications within the BAU forest management are feasible. In general, these changes do not alter completely the BAU forest management practices, but do only complement and adjust them to specific needs of ES demands or climate change adaptation.
The recommendation of one single general multifunctional forest management approach in European mountain forests is not appropriate or reasonable. Forest management must be adapted to stand, site and climate conditions as well as to demands of forest owners and stakeholders for provisioning of ES. From landscape level analysis it was evident, that it is not realistic to assume that a set of several ecosystem services can be provided equally well at very small spatial scale (e.g. 1-2ha) due to trade-offs regarding required ecosystem properties. This finding calls for partial segregation and bundling of neutral or complementary ES.
Project Context and Objectives:
The sustainable provision of ecosystem services (ES) in, and of, mountain regions is of crucial importance to an array of stakeholders and society in general. The project “Advanced multifunctional forest management in European mountain RANGEs” (ARANGE) sets out to evaluate the consequences of changing climate and socio-economic conditions for the provisioning of portfolios of ES across a number of mountain forest regions in Europe. The project includes a wide range of forest types in major mountain ranges and seeks to develop and evaluate strategies for their multifunctional management under risk and uncertainty. The overall aims of ARANGE are:
(1) To investigate the potential and limitations of current and possible future approaches to mountain forest management for the Provision
of portfolios of ES under current and future climatic and socio-economic conditions.
(2) To identify related risks and uncertainties.
(3) To translate the scientific state of knowledge about the efficient provision of multiple ES from mountain forests into decision Support
for policy makers and forest practitioners, so as to improve the robustness of planning tools in real-world decision making.
The ARANGE research sets focus on seven mountain regions across Europe. These seven regions cover the most important mountain forest types within the main biomes (continental, Mediterranean, boreal) and represent distinct biophysical conditions and governance settings. Generic themes across regions include (a) the identification of the relationships among the main ecosystem services (production, protection, climate change, nature conservation and biodiversity) along en¬vironmental gradients; (b) the analysis and further development of policy and governance frame¬works to foster multifunctional mountain forestry, (c) the identification of economically efficient management strategies for generic portfolios of ES from landowner and public perspectives; and (c) the exploration of the sensitivity of current management concepts to climatic and socio-economic uncertainties.
As a key concept of the ARANGE project regional stakeholder panels include representatives (managers, NGOs, forest administration service, SMEs operating in the case study regions) who have been identified to engage in a dialogue to present their concerns, experiences and insights for the development of relevant multifunctional management strategies, in mapping governance systems and planning approaches. The three core functions of stakeholder involvement will be (a) consultation, i.e. to identify issues, problems, conflicts and complementarities in implementing multi-functional forest management in the case study regions, (b) judgment and advice, i.e. linking science-based evidence with value-based attitudes to perceive a realistic picture of decision-making in case study areas, and (c) mutual learning both within a region and across regions
The specific scientific and technological objectives for the project were:
1.) To produce a consistent spatial and temporal database covering environmental conditions and current management practices and
approaches across the seven case study areas in major European mountain regions. Existing data will be compiled and new data will be collected, if required, to represent forest conditions in the case study areas. Expert knowledge and stakeholder views on current
management practices and approaches will be gathered and condensed to operational descriptions of silvicultural systems. Current
climate data and transient future climate change scenarios will be compiled and made available for the case study areas. Work Package WP1 will be responsible for these tasks.
2.) To adapt various forest ecosystem modelling tools to simulate past and future forest development in managed and unmanaged forests. ARANGE aims at mature forest models which can be readily applied to simulate forest development at stand and landscape scales under various climatic conditions. Emphasis will be placed on the ability of models to capture natural disturbances such as fire, wind and bark beetles. WP2 is responsible for this task.
3.) To define indicators and linker functions which characterize the provisioning of ES from forest model output in the case study areas. In a harmonized approach a set of indicators and linker functions will be defined which allow to characterize how well specific simulated and observed forest trajectories provide specific combinations of ES at different spatial scales. Key issue is to ensure the comparability of results across the case study areas. This task belongs to WP2.
4.) To analyse policy and governance conditions in the case study areas and to collect and design future scenarios of land use in European mountain areas. A comparative analysis across case study areas will show which policies and instruments at supranational, national and regional levels are driving forest management and the provisioning of ES. Likewise, ARANGE will study the governance systems in place in the different case study areas in order to understand current decision making procedures and to address the various stakeholder interests. All related tasks are embedded within WP3.
5.) To develop new and advanced methods to support multifunctional mountain forest management planning. Economic analysis and optimization, multi-criteria decision analysis and ES theories will be employed to design, evaluate and select from alternative management options. WP4 will combine monetary and preference-based approaches to address landowner and stakeholder perspectives.
6.) To facilitate stakeholder interaction in all case study regions and disseminate information and tools. WP6 is responsible to ensure a harmonized framework for stakeholder interaction processes in all case study regions.
7.) To provide the means and processes for transparent and efficient internal communication and to organize the dissemination of ARANGE findings and products to end users and stakeholders. Work Package WP7 is devoted to coordination and management and includes internal and external communication.
Project Results:
1.3 Description of the main S&T results/foregrounds
1.3.1 WP1 - Data & case study implementation
Objectives
WP1 set up the data platform for the project vital for the comparability of results and cross-case study analyses and established a harmonized data base for the input variables of the models used in WP2. This database describes the abiotic conditions and forest structures within and across case studies for the stand and landscape scales. The high heterogeneity of mountain landscape will be represented through key abiotic gradients (e.g. temperature, precipitation, slope, bedrock). Downscaled climate change scenarios were developed for each case study. Current forest management practices, planning processes and harvesting systems were documented in each case study and classified within a common framework. This allowed cross-case study comparison and realistic implementation of management operations in the forest models. These data were used to define the range of management practices to be explored in simulations of WP2 and a spatio-temporal web-based database to store and share these data was implemented.
Tasks
T1.1: Building a harmonized environmental data framework
T1.2: Climate scenario data for the case study regions
T1.3 Management practices & harvesting technology
T1.4: Current multifunctional forest planning techniques
T1.5: Design a spatial web database
Deliverables
D1.1 Historic climate data for case studies
For a set of representative sites in each Case Study Area (CSA) 100-year baseline climate data sets of daily weather data were generated from climate stations or E-OBS grid points. For each of the CSAs the stochastic weather generator LARS-WG was used to generate one basic 100-year daily climate data set comprising minimum and maximum temperature, as well as precipitation from an observation period from 1961 to 1990. Then the program MT-Clim was used to generate the specific baseline climate data sets for the representative sites according to altitudinal zones, slope and aspect employing lapse rates for temperature and precipitation. Vapor pressure deficit and radiation were estimated from temperature and precipitation data. This baseline climate data sets were used to drive forest simulation models.
D1.2 Catalogue of harmonized environmental variables
The smallest planning and treatment unit in silviculture is usually called “stand” (biology focused) or “compartment” (planning focused). A “stand” is defined as a forest area with (more or less) homogeneous conditions regarding to (i) site conditions, (ii) tree species composition, (iii) stand structure, (iv) tree age, (v) management objectives, and (vi) silvicultural treatments. The area size of such stands / compartments ranges from about 0.5ha to areas as large as 10-20ha, depending on attributes as listed above. Ownership characteristics play an important role as well.
In order to provide a common data base regarding site and stand conditions for all partners involved in implementing the ARANGE work plan the forest conditions in each ARANGE CSA was characterized by a set of “Representative Stands” (RST). To study implications of forest management at scales beyond the stand level at least one “Representative Landscape” (RL) per CSA was defined as well. RSTs and RLs, on one hand, are meant to provide the base to assess current management practices and its implications for ecosystem service provisioning, on the other hand the RSTs and RLs should also allow to explore potential alternative management regimes in the CSAs. Per CSA between 20 and 50 RSTs were defined and subsequently used in the model simulations.
D1.3 Current and historical forest management practices
The main objective was to gather data on current and historical forest management and harvesting and logging technologies within each case study area (CSA). Data were gathered through several questionnaires. In each case study area current (business-as-usual - BAU) forest management concepts were described as silvicultural systems covering the entire life cycle of a representative stand type (RST), including the related harvesting and logging technologies. The level of detail has been chosen in a way that the information can be used to implement BAU management in forest simulation models. For harvesting approaches a survey was also done at representative landscape level to cover attributes beyond stand sclae such as road density. In total silvicultural systems for 197 RSTs are available in this Deliverable and can be compared across European mountain regions. Quantitative data on historical forest management was available from five CSAs. These data cover several decades of regional or stand level forest development and were then used to analyze historic development of ES indicators and how these were influenced by changes in management regimes.
D1.4 Climate change scenarios for case studies
Deliverable D1.4 makes climate change and its uncertainty accessible to ARANGE. Based on the ensemble of regional climate simulations from the EU FP6 project ENSEMBLE a set of five transient simulations (representing uncertainty) is statistically downscaled to each of the seven ARANGE case study regions by means of quantile mapping. Each of the downscaled climate change scenarios is represented by time series of 100 years (2001 to 2100) on daily basis for temperature (minimum, maximum, mean), precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and solar radiation. Together with the historic baseline climate (D1.1) the total of 6 climate scenarios represented the potential future range of climatic conditions for the model simulations.
D1.5 ARANGE database
The ARANGE DataBase has been developed to store output of forest model simulation runs from WP2 (Task 2.4) and to enable the consistent analysis of ecosystem service provision by forests across all ARANGE case study areas (Task 2.4 Task 5.1). The model output format is based on the variables defined in deliverable D2.2 (Models and linker functions (indicators) for ecosystem services). The output of forest models is structured in three tables per simulation run: (i) state variables, (ii) flow variables, (iii) management operations. Most of the metadata providing context information is contained in the file names (case study area, representative stand type, management scheme, landscape plan, climate scenario, forest model). The file triplets are uploaded to the ARANGE DataBase server by the modeling groups. Partners are entitled to use data for analysis.
WP2 – Quantification and assessment of ecosystem services
Objectives
The objective of WP2 was to (i) adjust and further develop (if required) state-of-the-art models for the projection of forest dynamics and the assessment of ecosystem services (ES) , and (ii) to apply these tools to simulate past, current and future forest development and related ES. Based on simulated trajectories of ES, the relationships among ES at different spatial scales will be analysed in WP5. For specified portfolios of ES, improved stand management concepts will be identified at the case study level utilizing, among others, information from the stakeholder dialogue (via WP6), optimized management approaches (via WP4) and feedback from WP5 (integration and synthesis).
Tasks defined in DoW
T2.1: Set-up models of forest dynamics for the case study areas
T2.2: Models and tools to assess ecosystem services
T2.3 Analysis of historic time series of forest structure and ES
T2.4: Simulation of forest development and resulting ES
Deliverables
D2.1 Improved and tested forest models for case study regions
Forest models are valuable tools that permit us to simulate forest dynamics at high accuracy and detail at different spatio-temporal scales. This is important to evaluate the spatial interdepend-encies of ecosystem goods and services. A wide range of state-of-the-art models of forest dynam-ics have been developed by the modeling partners of the ARANGE consortium. The set of forest models available in ARANGE includes both stand-level and landscape-level approaches, i.e. PICUS [BOKU]; ForClim and LandClim [ETHZ]; SAMSARA/CAPSIS [IRSTEA]; Heureka [SLU]; SIBYLA [NFC]; and BIOME-BGC [BOKU]. In the first project year, model development and adaptation of the models to the ARANGE Case Study Areas (CSAs) has taken place; some models were applied preliminarily in several ARANGE CSAs, while others were tested mainly in one CSA. Most of the models were improved in terms of their structure and be-havior with respect to a range of features. Overall, the forest models available in ARANGE have been tested for a wide range of conditions in the CSAs, and they have been set up so as to be ready for model application in the CSAs under specific site conditions, using measured stand data for model initialization. In three Case Study Areas (CSA2, CSA3, CSA7) more than one model was readily available for ecosystem service analysis and allowed us to quantify uncertainties related to model errors. This task has been implemented in close contact with the development of ecosystem service indicators and related linker functions (Task 2.2).
D2.2 Models and linker functions (indicators) for ecosystem services
A key element in the ARANGE workplan was the harmonized definition of ecosystem service indicators which can be supported by output from All forest models in ARANGE via linker functions. In D2.2 the ES indicators and related linker functions that will be implemented by forest growth models in order to assess ecosystem services related to wood production, carbon storage, biodiversity preservation and protection against natural hazards are presented. Suggestions are also made for wood energy biomass and game hunting, two ecosystem services that will be considered in some specific case study areas of the ARANGE project. Overall, the core set comprised of 15 ES indicators, with another 7 indicators as optional. For each linker function, we provide its definition, justification and the equations and algorithms for its operational implementation. We also provide perspectives how to adapt the linker functions at the landscape scale and to permit cross case studies comparisons. Overall, this achievement is ground-breaking and a huge step forward towards reliable and comparable ES quantification and analysis.
D2.3 Analysis of historic & current forest management practices, forest dynamics and related ES
In this Deliverable, forest Ecosystem Service (ES) indicators are analyzed following two approaches.
First, in five ARANGE Case Study Areas (CSAs) historic inventory data and management records were used to study the development of ES indicators over several decades. The indicators showed that the importance of timber production has increased during the analyzed period in all CSAs in terms of both timber stocking and productivity. Similarly, following the trend in stand stocking, the provisioning of carbon storage has also increased in all CSAs. However, indicators of biodiversity conservation differed significantly between the CSAs. Management systems that are creating even-aged stands (i.e. clear-cutting system, uniform shelterwood system) decreased the indicators, whereas those techniques that are promoting uneven-aged structures led to an increase in biodiversity indices.
Of particular interest for those CSAs where the management regime had changed during the historic period was whether the ES indicators showed a response that could be attributed to management. However, results from Spain and Slovenia, where such a management change occurred, showed that changes in the provision of ES cannot be attributed unequivocally to management changes, as a multitude of factors are involved.
Second, there is a broad spectrum of silvicultural systems used as Business-As-Usual (BAU) management in the seven ARANGE CSAs. In three CSAs, uneven-aged management regimes are in use, in the Spanish CSA the coppice system is also an element of current management. There is no evident relationship between the management objectives (i.e. demand for ES) in the CSAs and the BAU management. However, even-aged systems based on small- to medium-scale clear-cutting appear to be the favored silvicultural system when timber production is the major ES that is demanded. To some extent tradition seems also to play a role in determining the management regime.
Simulation studies with state-of-the-art forest models showed that there are limitations of BAU with regard to the maintenance of biodiversity, particularly regarding species and structural diversity as well as deadwood abundance. An issue not fully represented by the models is the impact of disturbances such as bark beetles and windstorms. Just in one CSA (Montafon) bark beetle damages were considered explicitly in the simulations.
When BAU management was simulated under a set of climate change scenarios, a substantial variation regarding ES provision resulted, depending on the climate scenarios. Furthermore, the typical altitudinal gradient in mountain regions was reproduced, with mainly negative impacts on forest growth at low elevations due to increasing summer drought and species shifts from conifers to broadleaved species, while at higher altitudes growth benefits from longer vegetation periods and more favorable thermal regimes. This was a consistent finding in all CSAs. However, it is important to note that scenario simulations that do not consider disturbance regimes are likely too optimistic. Intensifying disturbance regimes bear the potential to severely impact ES provision, such as timber production, carbon storage and protection against gravitational hazards.
Another potential conflict exists in small-scale ownership structures, where demand for timber production (usually the interest of forest owners) and the need to protect against rockfall, snow avalanches and erosion and landslides meet. No segregative approaches are possible when ownership size is too small to disentangle ES. However, approaches to balance (i.e. integrate) ES such as timber and protection by fine-grained small-scale silviculture may be severely hampered by technical and economic constraints regarding feasible harvesting technologies.
These results call for the design of ES portfolios with no or low conflict potential and a partial segregation of ES provisioning at the landscape scale. From the BAU simulations, we conclude that setting aside larger areas in coniferous mountain forests may be no option due to intensifying disturbance regimes, which may jeopardize key ES such as protective services.
D2.4 Database on simulated ecosystem services
As output from task 2.4 stand level simulations of BAU and “adapted management” alternatives under historic climate and 5 climate change scenarios and related ES indicators were available. In total 5057 stand level simulation runs were executed and resulting ecosystem service indicators stored in the ARANGE database. All partners have access to these data during the project life of ARANGE. Thus, use of data for analysis and cross case study comparison is encouraged. This, in the end will improve the scientific output in terms of SCI papers.
Already during the ARANGE project the database with output from Task 2.4 greatly supported the synthesis tasks 5.1 and 5.2 in WP5. Deliverables 5.1 and 5.2 could not have been produced in such a comprehensive and efficient way without Task 2.4 and The ARANGE DataBase functionalities.
The ARANGE DataBase is also integral component of the Decision Support ToolBox being prepared in Task 4.4 (see Deliverables D4.4 and D4.5). An interface between the ARANGE data format and the tools for ES assessment and forest management planning in the ToolBox has been developed and fully implemented. The ToolBox including the database will be freely available in the internet after completion of the project. Thus, useability of ARANGE simulation data on ecosystem service provisioning will be available also AFTER termination of the ARANGE project.
The ToolBox supports two user types: (i) the forest manager (being a non-expert in modelling and analysis) and (ii) the analyst who can make in-depth use of data and analysis tools in the toolbox [afm-toolbox.net].
1.3.2 WP3 – Baseline Policy and Governance
Objectives
The objective of this work package was to analyse (a) EU and national policies and how these policies affect mountain forest management and the provision of multiple ecosystem services in the case study regions, and (b) governance systems in the case study regions focused on multi-functionality of mountain forest landscapes. Specifically, this work package aimed at: (1) identifying relevant policies and policy instruments both at EU and at case study level influencing mountain forest management and the provision and consumption of ecosystem services and discussing the congruence between broad macro-level policy discourses and micro-level policy implementation measures; (2) reviewing available land use change scenarios for EU27 with focus on their relevance for the case study regions, identifying main drivers of land use change in the case study regions and analyse their likely impact on the demand for and/or supply of ecosystem services from mountain forests and; (3) analysing the public and corporate governance systems for the implementation of multifunctional mountain forest management in the case study regions providing a context analysis for the case study regions.
Tasks as defined in DoW
• T3.1: Policy framework analysis
• T3.2: Future scenarios of mountain forest land use
• T3.3 Governance systems
• T3.4 Case study analysis
Deliverables
D3.1 Report policy framework as related to multifunctional mountain forest management
Deliverable D3.1 as product of Task 3.1 is concerned with the identification and analysis of policies related to multifunctional mountain forest management. There are two perspectives taken: the macro-level policy framework – looked at European and international policies. Its aim was to collect and evaluate data from all trans- and international policies relevant to forest policies in mountain areas. The macro-level policy analysis utilised the ARANGE Forest Policy Database that contains legislation and policy documents that relates directly to forests, forest management and the mountain landscape. And second, the micro-level policy framework – analysed national policies. The analysis was based on a ARANGE guidelines for national policy reports. National policy reports were elaborated by each Case Study Area team for the respective country. All reports were compared and analysed to find similarities and differences in national and regional policies related to multifunctional mountain forestry.
D3.2 Future scenarios of mountain forest land use in the case study regions
ARANGE Deliverable D3.2 provides a review of different approaches to scenario development, based on an evaluation of several projects and reports having developed scenarios. The purpose of the review was in part to identify current and upcoming challenges facing mountain areas and forests as well as to define the best approach for developing a scenario for ARANGE. Using results from the review, the deliverable then sets out to develop a baseline (or business-as-usual) scenario, in the form of a narrative, that addresses the main environmental concerns facing European mountain areas and forests as a whole. The baseline scenario narrative is centred around driving forces identified in the review that in turn have been analysed by each case study group as regards the direction of change these may take. This has also allowed for the development of regional specific scenarios and the basis for understanding how key drivers may have an impact on mountain forests and relevant ecosystem services. Using the scenario development process as a framework, Deliverable 3.2 explores plausible future pathways in more detail; provides a qualitative framework for the modelling of ecosystem service provision; thinks about management alternatives for the case studies; and provides a basis for the models to describe future developments. Overall, D3.2 is useful knowledge for developing strategies for future mountain forest policies and management and suitable for policy makers and forest managers as well.
D3.3 SCI paper on governance systems
The objective of this deliverable was to map and analyze governance systems relevant for the implementation of multifunctional mountain forest management in all seven cases study areas of ARANGE. We surveyed with a structured questionnaire 27 case study managers inquiring about the following elements of governance: participation and stakeholders interactions, inter-sectoral coordination, multi-level coordination, decision structures and processes, responsibilities, and use of expertise. The governance modes of mountain forests in Europe basically support multifunctional management. However, the implementation of multifunctional management differs among the respective areas mostly due to the local site-specific conditions rather than by governance context. The results of this study were useful in formulating appropriate recommendations to policy makers in Deliverable 5.3.
The deliverable has been published meanwhile in Forestry Journal [http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/forj].
1.3.3 WP4 – Improved Planning
Objectives
The WP objective was to develop new and advanced methods and tools to support planning of multifunctional forest management. This comprises: (1) Designing improved operational planning procedures including multifunctional, decision-oriented forest inventories and participative mapping and prioritisation of management objectives; (2) Improving existing methods and techniques for socio-economic analysis and to develop new methods and algorithms for trade-off analysis and optimization of management strategies for multiple ES; methods which will be explored include “hard” OR like mathematical programming and “soft” multi-criteria decision analysis approaches; (3) Designing and implementing architecture and functionality of a generic web-based decision support tool box for multifunctional forest management planning. The tool box will be populated with methods and tools developed in WP4 and WP2. The tools and methods developed in WP4 will be applied in case study specific analyses as well as in a comparative generic analysis across all case studies.
Tasks
T4.1: Improved data acquisition for forest management planning
T4.2: Optimization tools for multifunctional forest management
T4.3 Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methods for prioritization and selection of silvicultural management alternatives and harvesting systems
T4.4: Web-based Decision Support Tool Box
Deliverables
D4.1 Manuscript on improved data acquisition for multifunctional mountain forest
This is an overview of the data acquisition methods, incl. field survey and remote sensing, used for forest management planning in European multifunctional mountain forestry. Criteria and indicators for assessing the major ecosystem services are introduced and linked with assessment methodologies. It includes the survey results on the current practice on data and data acquisition methods in the ARANGE case study areas. Technological details of terrestrial methods are given in an extended Annex to D4.1. In a combined application in the ARANGE Case Study Area CSA3 (Montafon, Eastern Alps in Austria) a terrestrial forest inventory was implemented parallel and in close agreement with a airborne RS campaign which employed hyper-spectral LIDAR methods.
It is apparent that the individual ecosystem functions are not equal in how they are considered in forest management planning. Traditionally, the productive function remains important also in mountain forestry, together with biodiversity and protection against gravitational natural hazards. However, carbon and climate issues are way apart from the forest management practice and planning. Climate change mitigation is a top-down driven policy that has not reached the operational forest management planning, which is reflected by the general absence of explicit criteria and indicators in the forest management planning and inventories linked to it. On the contrary, monitoring of biodiversity issues, is well supported by the current forest management inventories and planning process.
It is evident that most of the indicators required for monitoring ecosystem functions are based on field assessment or sharing existing map and data sources, and less so from remote sensing.
Remote sensing approaches in general show growing importance in supporting forest management planning by providing not only spatial information, but also including structural elements of forest stands (LIDAR methods).
Forest management planning is mostly based on stand and site level information. Since the modern remote sensing data may be focused on both tree and stand, it is apparent that an optimal data acquisition strategy should combine field survey and remote sensing, exploiting the best of the two approaches.
D4.2 manuscript on multi-criteria decision aid in selecting mountain forest
Within the ARANGE project several research teams had ample experience with forest planning in general and multi-criteria decision analysis in particular. From the discussions during meetings and throughout project life via emails and phone calls ideas about the use of MCDA in mountain forest managementplanning were exchanged. These ideas were subsequently shaped into a scientific paper which is enclosed in the Annex of this deliverable. Based on this experiences and the potential usefulness of MCDA methods for forest analysis and planning a MCDA tool has also been implemented in the DS ToolBox (see D4.5).
Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision aid frequently used in the field of forest management planning. It includes the evaluation of multiple criteria such as the production of timber and non-timber forest products and tangible as well as intangible values of ecosystem services (ES). Hence, it is beneficial compared to those methods that take a purely financial perspective. Accordingly, MCDA methods are increasingly popular in the wide field of sustainability assessment. Hybrid approaches allow aggregating MCDA and, potentially, other decision-making techniques to make use of their individual benefits and leading to a more holistic view of the actual consequences that come with certain decisions. This review is providing a comprehensive overview of hybrid approaches that are used in forest management planning. Today, the scientific world is facing increasing challenges regarding the evaluation of ES and the trade-offs between them, for example between provisioning and regulating services. As the preferences of multiple stakeholders are essential to improve the decision process in multi-purpose forestry, participatory and hybrid approaches turn out to be of particular importance. Accordingly, hybrid methods show great potential for becoming most relevant in future decision making. Based on the review presented here, the development of models for the use in planning processes should focus on participatory modeling and the consideration of uncertainty regarding available information.
A paper based on D4.2 has already been published in Environmental Management [DOI 10.1007/s00267-015-0503-3].
D4.3 Manuscript on optimization of multifunctional mountain forest
Maintaining multifunctionality of forests is a crucial task with changing climate and increasing demands from society. In forest management planning explicit consideration of multiple Es is still rare in traditional approaches. We combined forest growth simulations with a risk-integrating economic optimization tool to derive management plans for different climate scenarios, to investigate interdependencies between different forest services, as well as to provide economic information regarding the costs for providing certain services at the enterprise level. To do so, long-term growth projections for various tree species are coupled with different management scenarios.
Under the lead of TUM the optimizer tool YAFO was further developed and applied to analyse optimized management options in two case study areas Montafon (Austria) and Goat Backs Mountains (Kozie Chrbty, Slovakia). The optimization was done under the baseline scenario as well as under climate change conditions. Additionally, a minimum stock scenario was introduced to simulate the effects of climate change on providing an ecosystem service like protection against rockfall and avalanches. Modelling and results were compiled in Deliverable 4.3 and presented at the conference “Mountain Forest Management in a Changing World”, 7-9 July 2015, Smokovce, High Tatra Mountains, Slovakia. General recommendations from the study were the reduction of the overaged stocking volume within several decades to establish new ingrowth leading to an overall reduction of age and related risk as well as an increase in growth. Under climate change conditions the admixing of hardwoods to softwood stands should be emphasized to count for the changing risk and growth conditions. The principles of increasing tree species richness, increasing structural diversity, replacing high-stand risks and reducing average growing stocks are important preconditions for a successful sustainable management of European mountain forests in the long term. A manuscript of the study was submitted to Canadian Journal of Forest Research and is currently under revision. As alternative method to optimized forest management planning a Goal Programming (GP) approach has been applied to the Spanish and Austrian case study areas by INIA and BOKU.
D4.4 Prototype of web-based DSToolBox for multifunctional forest management &
D4.5 Improved DSToolBox version 1.0 for multifunctional forest management
ARANGE has the ambition to support managers and analysts in forest management planning also after termination of the project. There fore it was decided to further develop and enhance the frame and functionalities of an existing decision support toolbox (the AFM-ToolBox) and make this enhanced version publicly available via the internet.
Functionalities of the AFM ToolBox were extended so that they fitted the ARANGE DataBase and retrieval of data as well as use of ARANGE data by already existing tools in the AFM ToolBox made possible. Based on the available AFM ToolBox new decision support tools were developed and implemented within Task 4.4. Major focus within ARANGE was on the development of tool for the analysis of ES indicators at landscape scale (LAT). This tool was successfully implemented and integrated in the AFM ToolBox. Furthermore, the multi-criteria analysis tool in the AFM ToolBox was generalized and is now also applicable to mountain forest problem settings. The Mixed-Integer programming optimizer has been extended and can now also use data from the ARANGE DataBase. In addition, new content on mountain forest management and the ARANGE case study areas was created.
The system architecture of the ToolBox comprising of the major tool box components, their formal design and implementation as software modules is introduced. The ToolBox is implemented as a combination of web based and native applications was chosen (hybrid approach). The tools in the ToolBox as well as the ToolBox itself are designed as web applications. This allows for tool developers a straightforward technical integration of different tools into the ToolBox, and for users a simple access to the functionalities of the ToolBox on a web server. For advanced users the local installation of the entire ToolBox within its web frame is possible. Technically, the tools and the ToolBox are web applications and can be accessed and operated with a web browser. Own simulation results can be used by either uploading the data to the server, or by using a local installation of the whole ToolBox. Major components of the ToolBox are the MOTIVE DataBase, the ARANGE DataBase, the DataClient to transfer model otput produced externally to the ToolBox into the DataBase, the Vulnerability Assessment tool, the Optimizer as well as a set of support functionalities. In the Prototype 1.0 version the Tool Integration framework (i.e. the actual “tool box”), the DataClient and the ARANGE DataBase as well as the Vulnerability Assessment tool and the Landscape Assessment Tool (LAT) are implemented and functional.
The ToolBox will be available after project termination at http://www.afm-toolbox.net.
WP5 – Integration and Synthesis
Objectives
This work package integrated the different data and information streams of the project to perform comparative analyses within and across case study regions and to achieve the general scientific synthesis of the project. The focus was on: (1) The interactions and trade-offs between ES and how they vary with spatial scale and levels of integration (from the stand of the landscape level; from full integration to complete segregation), between different regions, and as a function of the silvicultural regime; (2) Identifying the direct and indirect effects (via adaptation measures) of climate change on the provision of ES; (3) Testing the Decision Support Tool Box in selected case study regions; (4) Devise new silvicultural systems integrating key findings on the interaction of ES and the compatibility of harvesting systems and silvicultural regimes in order to optimize the provision of ES; (5) Formulate best-practices and recommendations to resource managers on how to implement efficient multifunctional mountain forest management and; (6) Formulate recommendations to policy makers on how to preserve and foster the multi-functionality of European mountain forest landscapes.
Tasks
T5.1: Trade-offs in ES
T5.2: Revised silvicultural systems for portfolios of ES
T5.3 Implications for policy making & governance
T5.4: Application of the Decision Support Tool Box for advanced multifunctional mountain forest management.
Deliverables
D5.1 Manuscript on interaction effects and trade-offs among different ecosystem services
We provide a brief overview of some approaches developed and results obtained in ARANGE to study the effect of climate change on ecosystem services as well as trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services, based on business-as-usual management (BAU) scenarios. This overview if followed by a synthesis. Two manuscripts have been prepared so far based on material from D5.1: (1) one addressing the effect of climate change on the provision of ecosystem services at the stand scale for BAU scenarios in five case study areas (Mao et al., in prep); (2) the other addressing the effect of climate change on ecosystem services at the landscape scale for the Austrian case study area (Irauscheck et al., in revision, Reg Environ Change). A special issue in Reg Environ Change will provide complementary results for other case study areas.
Using individual based forest dynamics models, we estimated and compared the evolution of four ecosystems services (timber production, carbon stock, biodiversity conservation and protection against natural hazards) of mountain forest stands under current management, in case study areas from six European countries for 100 years until 2100. Despite a strong effect of case study area, the impact of climate change on ecosystem service followed rather similar trends in the different case studies areas. Yet, the impact could be significantly moderated by climatic conditions of each study site. Overall, this study suggests that the current forest management in Europe might not be safe enough for stable ecosystem services provision in the future.
The first 40 years until 2050 can be considered a relative safe stage, since the proportion of sites where ES provisioning shift increased slowly. From the third 20-year period, the proportion of sites where the shift in ES provisioning was projected to be either in gain or in loss increased in a pronounced number but in generally linear manner. The vulnerability of ecosystem services differs greatly between ecosystem services. Increasingly, almost all climate change scenarios terminate this safe stage at the same time around 2050. Climate change does not have an instantaneous effect, but become very destructive in mid and long term after a cumulative stage. Accordingly, the first 20-40 years may thus be considered a “buffer stage” in which human beings should make the most effort to prevent the occurrence of the ES shift if sustainable provision of ES portfolios is required.
D5.2 Recommendations for multifunctional forest management strategies
Synthesis Deliverable D5.2 provides an overview on currently used silvicultural and harvesting systems, the evaluation of their efficiency and suitability for provisioning of portfolio of ecosystem services (ES), and recommendations and possible improvements regarding utilization of forest management systems in mountain forests, considering the interdependency of silvicultural systems and technically feasible harvesting systems. It consolidated all the results from the previous tasks within the ARANGE project, some information were gathered by questionnaires. The results showed that the performance and efficiency of currently used silvicultural and harvesting systems related to BAU forest management in regard to provisioning the demanded portfolio of ES were satisfactory in most CSAs. However, surprising was that no obvious relationship was detected between the demanded ES (i.e. management objectives) and the BAU forest management approaches. Nevertheless, current forest management practices in European mountain forests need adaptations and improvements in order to be more efficient in providing demanded ES and to cope climate change. To adapt stands to possible climate change, sufficient adaptations and modifications within the BAU forest management are feasible. In general, these changes should not alter the BAU forest management practices, but should only complement and adjust them to specific needs of ES demands or climate change adaptation. The recommendation of one single general multifunctional forest management approach in European mountain forests is not appropriate or reasonable. Forest management must be adapted to stand, site and climate conditions as well as to demands of forest owners and stakeholders for provisioning ES. Since the frame conditions as well as the environment (e.g. climate) are subjected to constant changes, forest management strategies need to be flexible and adaptive to be able to cope with them. However, time lags in decision making and in forest response to changes in management regimes limit the ability to follow such changes instantly. This conclusion does not invalidate the principles of the adaptive forest management approach but emphasizes the limitations of a command and control approach in forest management under uncertainty.
D5.2 is a useful source of information for forest managers as well as policy makers. And will be further developed into (a) a scientific paper, and (b) a policy brief.
D5.3 Policy frameworks to secure the multifunctionality of mountain forests
Deliverable D5.3 is summarising the current policy framework for mountain forest management aimed at ensuring the provision of the key ecosystems services looked at by ARANGE project and to identify options for further policy changes and their implications for multifunctional forest management, both on European and regional levels. This work is based on two earlier reports: ARANGE Deliverable D3.1 (“Policy Frameworks as related to multifunctional mountain forest management”), and ARANGE Deliverable D3.3 (“Analysis of governance systems applied in multifunctional forest management in selected European mountain regions”). It is, amongst other things, argued that the current platforms and instruments affecting mountain areas in Europe do not provide an effective or clear solution to promote multifunctional forest management, despite the fact that multifunctional forest management is already practically being implemented in all ARANGE case study areas. From the summarised results, this deliverable presents a general suite of challenges that may be seen as generic for forest management, generic for rural areas or specific for mountain forest management. The underlying purpose of this has been to gain a better understanding of the best policy level to address mountain forest policy and make coordination effective, as well as to define a possible way ahead. Some of the key issues that have been noted concern the balancing of ecosystem services provision and the role of science; strengthening local stakeholder involvement; enhancing regional initiatives; and Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES), economic oriented market instruments and economic incentives.
A scientific paper based on D5.3 is under preparation, a policy brief is planned as a post project activity.
D5.4 Documentation of DSToolBox application in selected case study regions
In this report the application of selected tools and functionalities of the enhanced AFM ToolBox is demonstrated by means of (a) case description and question(s) addressed, and (b) a screen shot series to demonstrate the application of toolbox elements to address the question(s).
We focus on three key elements: (1) demonstrating the use of the ARANGE database in the context of the toolbox. Data retrieval and explorative analysis is shown. (2) the MCDA tool to rank management options depending on stakeholder and user demands is shown by example from data from the Bulgarian case study CSA7. (3) The newly developed spatial Landscape Assessment Tool (LAT) is introduced and demonstrated in the Austrian case study (CSA3). This includes the set-up of an application based on forest inventiory and remote sensing data, mapping of selected ES indicators at different spatial resolution, and a 3D visualization of the landscape.
This Deliverable is useful for interested users of the AFM ToolBox.
Potential Impact:
1.4 The potential impact, main dissemination activities and exploitation of results
1.4.1 Potential impact
The following topics (impacts) were identified ex-ante and envisaged to be addressed specifically by the project: (1) assist mountain communities in managing their forests to meet various demands (e.g. feeding sawmills, bioenergy, recreation, conservation of biodiversity, protection against gravitational hazards); (2) provide a set of advanced management tools, policy recommendations, guidelines and/or multi-criteria decision support systems; (3) contribute to the development of strategies to foster socio-economic activities in more marginal mountain regions; (4) help preserve important environmental functions of European mountain forests; (5) support the implementation of international and European commitments for the protection of forests; and (6) project results should be of interest and potential benefits to SMEs.
In this regard, a brief ex-post evaluation of the main outputs of ARANGE shall depict the potential wider societal impact of the project.
With the ambition of “Knowledge-Based Bio-Economy” (KBBE) projects to particularly produce useful knowledge that can be directly used by an array of end-users the ARANGE project initiated stakeholder related processes in the beginning of its lifetime. To attain impacts at various levels within European societies multiple target groups have been identified, understanding forest and land owners, forest professionals, policy makers, as well as small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) amongst the key target users. In principle two distinct project deliverables described the framework and thus provided the basis for disseminating project results to both, stakeholders on the inside as well as at the outside of the ARANGE project. The deliverable D 6.2 “Stakeholder engagement plan” elaborated on the various scales of stakeholder participation, addressing target audiences from local to international levels, and set the framework for a harmonized stakeholder approach across the seven Case Study Areas (CSAs) of ARANGE. Processes and rules for the nomination of a Case Study Responsible (CSR) for each CSA, the formal constitution of Regional Stakeholder Panels (RSPs) as well as the establishment of a Case Study Task Force (CSTF) were central elements of this report. Additionally, guidelines on the identification, selection and mapping of relevant stakeholders and procedures regarding a regular reporting of stakeholder interaction needs and activities were defined for that purpose. Each of them had to be addressed by various dissemination activities utilizing a set of dissemination materials that were specifically tailored towards their individual needs. A detailed description thereof is available in the report D 6.3 “Dissemination plan”.
Corporate branding of ARANGE documents built the frame for achieving this goal. Further instruments to support visibility and impact were:
Media and communication
Meetings, Workshops and Trainings
Science Conference
Decision Support Tool Box (DSToolBox)
Policy Brief
Education
All these different means of dissemination led to wide-spread distribution of key findings of ARANGE to a broad audience on various levels within European society.
Collaboration of all partners was a prerequisite for streamlining activities with regard to distribution of project outcomes. Building upon the Regional Stakeholder Panels (RSP) in the case study regions, dialogue between ARANGE partners and regional interest groups was forced in order to share information both from inside (i.e. ARANGE consortium) and outside (i.e. all external stakeholders) the project. As a prerequisite for targeted knowledge generation and transfer, the members of the RSPs were involved in identifying knowledge gaps, information needs, current management approaches, current and future demand for ecosystem services as well as perceived risks. Stakeholder interaction inter alia (a) focused research efforts within ARANGE, (b) helped in mapping current management practices, (c) provided archetypical regional preference profiles for the assessment of value-based trade-offs in ecosystem services, and (d) provided a sounding board for practical recommendations originating from the project. Thus the RSPs served both as a source of learning about needs and perceptions of mountain forestry stakeholders as well as an experimental plot to proof the ARANGE concept, an essential element in order to considerably improve the state-of-the-art in sustainable mountain forest management – the key objective of the ARANGE project.
Linking the active participation in the CSAs and ARANGE research findings, the following advancements are expected to contribute to the future development of sustainable mountain forest management and thus, positively affect the provision of ecosystem services with wide benefits for mountain communities and society in general.
Climate Change scenarios
Based on the ensemble of regional climate simulations from the EU FP6 project „ENSEMBLE“ a set of five transient simulations (representing uncertainty) was statistically downscaled to each of the seven ARANGE case study regions in order to assess the effects of a changing climate on the future provision of ecosystem services in major European mountain ranges. Each of the downscaled climate change scenarios was represented by time series of 100 years (2001 to 2100) on daily basis for temperature, precipitation, water vapor deficit, and solar radiation. The reference data was given by a baseline climate based on observational data. The CC scenarios served as the driving data set for the forest models in order to assess the range of uncertainty with regard to model projections of future scenarios on the provision of ES from mountain forest ecosystems that highlight the ecological and socio-economic effects in the long run.
“Business-as-usual” (BAU) management identification & simulation of results
A lot of effort was spent to derive at a current state of forest management practices in the CSAs, often referred to as “business-as-usual” forest management (BAU-FM) that represents the normal course of silvicultural measures over the entire life cycle of a forest stand. Covering the analysis of current and historical forest management concepts as well as harvesting and logging techniques, in each of the CSAs a set of representative stand types was selected in collaboration with regional mountain forestry stakeholders to explicitly address currently practiced silvicultural regimes in the area. Operational descriptions of BAU-FM were then fed into the forest models to simulate the future development of the respective forest ecosystem. The results indicate effects of forest management concepts on the stand development and related forest ES. A “Special Issue” in the Journal “Regional Environmental Change” will deal with the exploitation of these findings and contribute to future mountain forest research.
Development of management alternatives and simulation of results
With the aim to improve the quality of life and to secure the sustainable provision of a set of selected ES in mountainous regions in Europe the ARANGE project targeted at the designation of alternative forest management approaches as potential pathways for mountain communities to cope with climate change and related effects. Within a three-stage iterative process including i) a survey amongst forest professionals, ii) expert consultation, and iii) a delphi-like approach to study the differences according to BAU-FM, a core group of silvicultural experts derived at operational descriptions of forest management alternatives for each CSA. The simulations shall give insights to the consequences of adaptive forest management and provide a basis for decision making in forest management planning.
Decision Support Tool Box
incl. MCDM and Optimization
The Decision Support Tool Box (DSToolBox) is a web-based application and consists of an array of tools that aim to assist forest managers in the sustainable management of their forests under changing climate. Including background information, approaches and principles to adaptive management, interactive tools to support forest management planning, examples across Europe and a collection of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) it provides a generic decision analysis approach and guides the user through a planning and decision making process. Its open access strategy allows for broad distribution amongst forestry stakeholders and supports its use in diverse settings for forest management planning. The further development and application in future research or R&D projects due to its maintenance by the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna can thus be guaranteed in addition.
Model development and application
A wide range of state-of-the-art models of forest dynamics, including both stand- and landscape level approaches, have been developed by consortium partners and were applied across the Case Study Areas (CSAs) of ARANGE. During the project most of the models were improved in terms of their structure and behavior with respect to a range of features, focusing on their applicability within a diverse range of environmental settings. It was one of the key tasks of ARANGE to test the models in different regions at various spatio-temporal scales inter alia to perform consistency and plausibility checks of model outputs.
Policy recommendations
Finally, the project aimed at feeding back major results to the target group outside the research community. It was particular WP5 and deliverables D5.2 and D5.3 who responded to this objective. D5.2 summarised the results of modelling of current and alternative management under different scenarios in an understandable format, and demonstrated the expected impacts on ecosystem service provision for each of the case studies. It was accompanied by a two-page fact sheet for the use of informing the regional stakeholder panels on major outcomes of this exercise.
In D5.3 the policy implications found in ARANGE were summarised. It captures the implications of cross-sectoral policies on mountain forest management, unravels the challenges that arise for mountain regions, and test option that might respond to this socio-economic environment. Written in a popular style, D5.3 can serve as an extended policy brief to be spread among the case studies and the respective stakeholders behind.
1.4.2 Main dissemination activities
Within the lifetime of ARANGE various dissemination activities facilitated the transfer of project related foreground amongst identified target audiences. As the extensive list of all activities is provided below (see Tables A1 + A2 chapter 2), the following description highlights only the most relevant achievements in this regard.
Direct exchange and meetings
Including the kick-off meeting in Vienna (2012) four General Assembly meetings have been organized that usually comprised of two days of indoor work, dedicated to the project and related tasks, and a one-day field trip. The excursion always referred to the case study area (CSA) and thus provided a means to raise awareness on regional aspects amongst the consortium partners as well as to guarantee direct knowledge-transfer between regional stakeholders who are actively involved in CSA related issues (e.g. via the Regional Stakeholder Panel) and the project team. As a follow-up activity after each of the project meetings, a short report on the event was published as sort of press release via the official ARANGE website and other dissemination channels (e.g. EFI news, Newsletter of partner organisations).
Additionally, a couple of stakeholder meetings were organized in each CSA for several reasons (e.g. data collection, stakeholder interests, action research, dissemination). A final feedback loop to the members of the Regional Stakeholder Panels was organized in each CSA until the end of the project lifetime. For this purpose a CSA specific Fact Sheet, in most cases translated to national languages, was prepared and used throughout the regions to hand back key results to its main supporters. The final versions of the Fact Sheets will be uploaded to the ARANGE website in order to provide brief insights to the work accomplished within the project particularly for interested stakeholders outside of ARANGE.
As a powerful tool to engage with third parties various workshops facilitated either problem solving or/and awareness raising. To stimulate the discussion on ARANGE results and hand back new knowledge generated, it was planned to conduct at least two training workshops in selected CSAs prior to project termination. In the W-Carpathian two training events focused on i) forest management principles under climate change with respect to the production of various timber assortments and ii) game management, its profitability and options for improvement. In the W-Rhodopes two meetings on forest marking were organized and aimed to recall the main points concerning the application of various silvicultural systems, to comment on new problems and to discuss current policy issues for mountain forest management.
Furthermore, an international stakeholder workshop was organized in the frame of the ARANGE science conference where the final day was dedicated to a concluding stakeholder event. In a panel discussion supported by representatives of MountFor, EUROMONTANA, the Slovenian Chamber of Agriculture and the European Commission, the question “what is needed, what can be learned from mountain forest research?” aimed at pinpointing the gaps and bridges between science, policy and practice - issues that were then taken up in an attached workshop on the way forward: “Towards a European Mountain Forest Research Agenda”.
As a concluding event, an open science conference titled “Mountain Forest Management in a Changing World” was organized. From 7-9 July 2015, ARANGE researchers gathered in the High Tatra Mountains (Slovakia) together with interested stakeholders from around the globe to discuss the potentials and limitations of current and possible future approaches to mountain forest management that aim at continuously providing portfolios of ecosystem services not only under current, but particularly under future climatic and socio-economic conditions. A distinct conference website was developed to exclusively highlight related content (http://www.nlcsk.sk/mfm-conference/Default.aspx). The conference announcement and call for abstracts was published three times and widely distributed amongst partner networks (e.g. Mountain Research Initiative, European Forest Institute and Regional Offices, BOKU Centre for International Relations). Finally, 130 participants including international researchers, international mountain forestry stakeholders and ARANGE consortium partners contributed with 48 oral as well as 31 poster presentations in 12 scientific sessions and provided thought-provoking insights to this multi-facetted topic. Three invited keynote speakers and four ARANGE key presentations, scheduled in the beginning of the Conference, provided a conceptual framework for the entire event. A field trip to the ARANGE Case Study Area (Kozi Chrbty Mountains, Spišská Teplica) in the afternoon of Day 2 (July, 8) allowed for direct knowledge transfer from practice to science and vice versa. At four thematic stops in selected forest stands regional stakeholders highlighted key challenges in the context of the provision of ecosystem services from mountain forests in their region. Topics addressed included: i) Wildlife management and hunting, ii) Conflicting Ecosystem Services, iii) Forest and Water, and iv) Climate Change and provided additional food for thought in related discussions with conference participants.
Information to stakeholders and interested parties
An effective way to deliver content to interested parties was setting up a short document highlighting key points of related topics in a concise way. WP 6 produced a series of fact sheets in order to promote the ARANGE project to various stakeholders.
It served a summary of important information for the introduction of ARANGE key issues, raising awareness of the main elements of the project and will be translated into various national languages that can be beneficial for participatory processes within the seven case study regions, i.e. (a) Bulgarian, (b) French, (c) German, (d) Slovakian, (d) Slovenian, (e) Spanish and (f) Swedish.
On the other hand, a leaflet was produced as a general means of information for broad distribution to potential audiences, e.g. in the EU institutions and Member States, at scientific meetings and/or conferences, for industry and other stakeholders.
1.4.3 Exploitation of results
The exploitation of results, and thus the use of foreground, shall be ensured by the project beneficiaries themselves. Within ARANGE several pathways to promote key project findings shall guarantee a broad distribution of new knowledge generated.
An array of PhD students from various partner organisations were involved in the project, thus facilitating knowledge-transfer via active promotion of their theses work (e.g. in PhD seminars, PhD defence). During a PhD-day organized at the European Forest Institute Project Center on Mountain Forests “MountFor” for instance, ARANGE was highlighted in a keynote speech by Dr. Bernhard Wolfslehner as well as in an oral paper presentation by MSc. Marco Mina (4 November 2014). Similar events with a particular focus on Early Stage Researchers (ESR) are organized throughout the year by various Research Organizations in Europe and offer the opportunity to distribute project findings amongst other PhD students and similar target groups.
Many of the ARANGE consortium partners are actively involved in educational and training programmes at European universities, ensuring that ARANGE results will be integrated into teaching programmes and seminars in forestry and related subjects. Thus, ARANGE foreground will spread quickly via international class rooms.
Beyond consultation, to foster social learning processes and education, it was one of the aims to conduct training workshops on selected ARANGE topics, particularly tailored towards forest managers and SMEs, in selected case study regions. Already within the lifetime of the project distinct trainings could be organized in two CSAs (i.e. W-Carpathians, W-Rhodopes). In most of the other CSAs training events are already envisaged for the near future, with a strong focus to spread ARANGE foreground amongst the members of the Regional Stakeholder Panels.
As a means to transpose scientific perception into political realm, policy briefs summarize topic related content in an understandable manner for further utilization of policy-makers. Those briefs need to be written concisely and shall point out key findings and major arguments to guarantee that complex problems can be understood by relevant authorities. A policy brief on the subject of multifunctional mountain forest management and coping with climate change and uncertainty will be designed to translate scientific information into non-technical and practical language and visual elements to support the main messages of ARANGE until the end of 2015.
The main product of ARANGE, the Decision Support Tool Box (DSToolBox) is implemented as an open access web-based application and consists of an array of tools that aim to assist forest managers in the sustainable management of their forests under changing climate. It provides a generic decision analysis approach and guides the user through a planning and decision making process consisting of four main steps: (1) assessing a given forest with regard to a profile of demanded ecosystem services (ES); (2) defining a finite number of forest management alternatives either directly available from the ARANGE knowledge base, as defined by the user with the management scenario writer, or as a result of an optimization procedure; (3) estimating the ES outcomes of the decision alternatives; (4) evaluating and comparing the alternatives with regard to a set of indicators representing the desired ES either in unilateral or group decision making environments.
To avoid licensing costs as well as intensive software installation in order to limit technical barriers for potential users ARANGE focused on a hybrid approach, providing the user with the opportunity to decide to which level of complexity the DSToolBox ought to support the planning process. More complex analysis and planning procedures, particularly model driven components, can be executed at the client side (i.e. the user downloads the tool chain to be used from the world wide web and runs the analysis on his/her desktop computer), data driven planning tools are available via the web.
A wide range of state-of-the-art models of forest dynamics, including both stand- and landscape level approaches, have been developed by consortium partners and were applied across the Case Study Areas (CSAs) of ARANGE. During the project most of the models were improved in terms of their structure and behaviour with respect to a range of features, focusing on their applicability within the project´s CSAs. The advances are subject to a range of scientific publications that promote the further use of such models for forest management planning.
All above mentioned activities shall support the uptake of ARANGE results into policy, practice and further research.
1.5 Project public website and relevant contact details
The official ARANGE website (http://www.arange-project.eu/) was implemented at the very beginning of the project and can still be seen as the main portal for the broader public. It was also the first visible sign of implementing the corporate design of ARANGE. The ARANGE identity is branded by a corporate design logo that has been produced under participation of all ARANGE partners to assure remarkable positioning of the project and foster recognition within various target groups.
Built upon the project acronym the main idea behind this logo is to deliver the multiplicity of mountain ranges via replacement of one character through a mountain symbol, highlighting multiple ecosystem services within the coloured circles (i.e. timber production, protection and biodiversity).
The official ARANGE website serves as the gateway for all parties external to the project (see Figure 4). It was and will be used as a window for the scientific teams, in order to present results, project related publications and other outputs (e.g. DSToolBox).
It was one of the obejectives to involve partners for specific contributions and to track R&D in the field of mountain forestry and forest ecosystem services to distribute relevant information via the project website and to link up with related initiatives. In total 9,402 sessions have been established by 6.556 users who on average visited 3,08 pages/visit with a session duration of 02:09 minutes. Taking into account that 30,2 % of the visitors were returning ones, 4.576 unique users could be recorded by the system so far. It can be expected that the numbers will continuously increase due to forthcoming dissemination of ARANGE results.
In line with web activities an ARANGE Facebook account was opened, offering blog-like information on the project and ongoing activities as well as further content with regard to similar topics of interest in a more generic way, including but not limited to mountain forestry, Sustainable forest management, ecosystem services, and biodiversity.
List of Websites:
www.arange-project.eu/
Coordinator:
Dr Manfred J. Lexer
ass. prof. for Silviculture & Vegetation modelling
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Department of Forest and Soil Sciences
Institute of Silviculture
E-Mail: mj.lexer@boku.ac.at
ph.: 0043 1 47654 4056