Final Report Summary - WORLDIVERSITY (Linking global species richness and beta diversity to individual species distributions at multiple phylogenentic and spatial scales)
SUMMARY OF PROJECT OBJECTIVES
The objectives were: (1) To explore global patterns of aspects of biodiversity other than species richness; (2) To use the method of taxonomic deconstruction of global biodiversity patterns to assess their universality, and to will examine if their taxon-specific forms can be linked to life history traits or phylogeny; (3) To improve methods designed to predict biodiversity in poorly surveyed areas or in areas under the threat of climate change. To address this I used global data on birds, mammals, amphibians and recently developed statistical methods (spatially explicit regression techniques, phylogenetic analyses, randomization procedures). The goal was to perform the analyses at multiple grain resolutions, and to provide software tools that will enable the methods to be accessible to wider academic community.
WORK CARRIED OUT TO ACHIEVE THE PROJECT'S OBJECTIVES
During the first year I have processed distribution data on all species of birds, mammals and amphibians, and I linked them to recent phylogenetic super-trees and functional trait databases. I wrote or co-wrote the following software tools: (i) tools that allow me to flexibly focus at any desired resolution of the global gridded map, and to explore spatial patterns of diversity at multiple spatial scales, and at multiple taxonomic scales, (ii) methods and software that allow mapping of biodiversity at spatial resolutions that are finer than the resolution of the data (the so-called “down-scaling”), (iii) software that allows me to statistically assess if biodiversity increased or decreased in areas with incomplete data coverage, (iv) software that allows to map potential geographic origins of taxa in a phylogenetic tree.
I used these data and tools to analyze patterns of diversity (and species- and endemic-area relationships) both globally and temporally, mainly with the focus on realized and potential extinctions and declines of biodiversity with habitable area lost. With my co-workers we have deconstructed global patterns of biodiversity with respect to taxonomic scale, and we are now pondering the implications of our findings (i.e. this work is still in progress). Finally, I have extensively tested new statistical tools to downscale species distributions and biodiversity from coarse to fine scales.
THE MAIN RESULTS
With David Storch and Walter Jetz we have developed theory that predicts how declines in numbers of species (extinctions) depend on the spatial arrangement of the habitable area that is destroyed and lost. The theory also predicts how other aspects of biodiversity, namely phylogenetic and functional diversity, decline with the lost area (Keil et al. 2015, pending minor revision in Nature Communications). I also applied some of my tools in a high-profile study demonstrating that declines of biodiversity (and declines of beta-diversity) of pollinators in Western Europe have slowed down, which is good news (Carvalhiero, Kunin, Keil et al. 2013 Ecology Letters). I also initiated an effort to re-evaluate some current practices of monitoring global changes of forest cover, which led to a publication in Science magazine (Tropek et al. 2014 Science).
With Ignacio Quintero (Yale University) we have tested and validated new tool that enables to estimate geographic area of origin of any taxon and its sub-taxa, given that we only have the geographic distribution of the recent taxa and their phylogenetic tree (Quintero, Keil, et al. 2015 Systematic Biology). With David Storch and Irena Simova (Charles University) we analyzed global patterns of biodiversity with respect to taxonomic resolution; we found that the functional form of the patterns is critically dependent on the specific taxonomic delineation of the focal group (Storch, Simova & Keil, in prep.), which may explain important part of the inconsistent results published in macroecology in the last decade.
In collaboration with Walter Jetz I successfully tested and validated new statistical framework that allows to map species and biodiversity in areas for which we only have limited information from coarse-scale spatial units (Keil et al. 2013 Methods in Ecology and Evolution; Keil et al. 2014 Diversity and Distributions; Keil & Jetz 2014 Ecological Applications). I also established a collaboration with Hugh Sturrock (UC San Francisco) which resulted in using the same tools to map vectors of malaria in southern Africa (Sturrock, Keil, et al. 2014 Malaria Journal).
The project I resulted in 9 publications in ISI-listed peer-reviewed journals, and an additional one pending minor revision in Nature Communications. The results of were also a base for a successful 2-year grant proposal “Assessing extinction: Crossover of geometrical, macroecological and Bayesian perspectives” awarded by German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) to Petr Keil.
POTENTIAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT AND WIDER SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS
In Keil et al. (2015) we offer a concise theory that enables to estimate magnitude of biodiversity loss with the loss of habitable area under various spatial arrangements of the loss. When human-caused habitat loss is inevitable, e.g. for political or economic reasons, our theory can help to prescribe modes of habitat destruction that at least minimize the negative impacts on biodiversity. These high-profile results should also help to steer the attention of the conservation community more towards other aspects of biodiversity, such as phylogenetic or functional diversity.
Many of the software tools have been available to the broad community. The tools that map geographic origins of phylogenetic lineages have been compiled in the form of a software package, enabling reconstruction of biogeographic and evolutionary histories of any taxa (Quintero, Keil et al. 2015). I also promote the use of my methods to downscale species distributions in other fields – for example, the methods have been employed in southern Africa to map areas of potential presence of malaria vectors (Sturrock, Keil, et al., Malaria Journal). In the future I expect wider application of these tools in epidemiology, conservation biology, climatology, image processing and remote sensing.
REFERENCES
1. Keil P., Storch D. & Jetz W. (2015) The decline of species richness and of phylogenetic and functional diversity due to area loss. Nature Communications, pending minor revision.
2. Quintero I., Keil P., Jetz W. & Crawford F.: Historical biogeography using species geographical ranges. Systematic Biology, in press.
3. Sturrock H., Cohen J.M. Keil P., et al. (2014) Fine-scale malaria risk mapping from routine aggregated case data. In review in Malaria Journal, 13: 421.
4. Keil P., Wilson A.O. & Jetz W. (2014) Uncertainty, priors, autocorrelation and disparate data in downscaling of species distributions. Diversity and Distributions, 20: 797-812.
5. Keil P. & Jetz W. (2014) Downscaling the environmental associations and spatial patterns of species richness. Ecological Applications, 24: 823-831.
6. Pechacek P., Stella D., Keil P. & Kleisner K. (2014) Environmental effects on the shape variation of male ultraviolet patterns in the brimstone butterfly (Gonepteryx rhamni, Pieridae, Lepidoptera). Naturwissenschaften, 101: 1055-1063.
The objectives were: (1) To explore global patterns of aspects of biodiversity other than species richness; (2) To use the method of taxonomic deconstruction of global biodiversity patterns to assess their universality, and to will examine if their taxon-specific forms can be linked to life history traits or phylogeny; (3) To improve methods designed to predict biodiversity in poorly surveyed areas or in areas under the threat of climate change. To address this I used global data on birds, mammals, amphibians and recently developed statistical methods (spatially explicit regression techniques, phylogenetic analyses, randomization procedures). The goal was to perform the analyses at multiple grain resolutions, and to provide software tools that will enable the methods to be accessible to wider academic community.
WORK CARRIED OUT TO ACHIEVE THE PROJECT'S OBJECTIVES
During the first year I have processed distribution data on all species of birds, mammals and amphibians, and I linked them to recent phylogenetic super-trees and functional trait databases. I wrote or co-wrote the following software tools: (i) tools that allow me to flexibly focus at any desired resolution of the global gridded map, and to explore spatial patterns of diversity at multiple spatial scales, and at multiple taxonomic scales, (ii) methods and software that allow mapping of biodiversity at spatial resolutions that are finer than the resolution of the data (the so-called “down-scaling”), (iii) software that allows me to statistically assess if biodiversity increased or decreased in areas with incomplete data coverage, (iv) software that allows to map potential geographic origins of taxa in a phylogenetic tree.
I used these data and tools to analyze patterns of diversity (and species- and endemic-area relationships) both globally and temporally, mainly with the focus on realized and potential extinctions and declines of biodiversity with habitable area lost. With my co-workers we have deconstructed global patterns of biodiversity with respect to taxonomic scale, and we are now pondering the implications of our findings (i.e. this work is still in progress). Finally, I have extensively tested new statistical tools to downscale species distributions and biodiversity from coarse to fine scales.
THE MAIN RESULTS
With David Storch and Walter Jetz we have developed theory that predicts how declines in numbers of species (extinctions) depend on the spatial arrangement of the habitable area that is destroyed and lost. The theory also predicts how other aspects of biodiversity, namely phylogenetic and functional diversity, decline with the lost area (Keil et al. 2015, pending minor revision in Nature Communications). I also applied some of my tools in a high-profile study demonstrating that declines of biodiversity (and declines of beta-diversity) of pollinators in Western Europe have slowed down, which is good news (Carvalhiero, Kunin, Keil et al. 2013 Ecology Letters). I also initiated an effort to re-evaluate some current practices of monitoring global changes of forest cover, which led to a publication in Science magazine (Tropek et al. 2014 Science).
With Ignacio Quintero (Yale University) we have tested and validated new tool that enables to estimate geographic area of origin of any taxon and its sub-taxa, given that we only have the geographic distribution of the recent taxa and their phylogenetic tree (Quintero, Keil, et al. 2015 Systematic Biology). With David Storch and Irena Simova (Charles University) we analyzed global patterns of biodiversity with respect to taxonomic resolution; we found that the functional form of the patterns is critically dependent on the specific taxonomic delineation of the focal group (Storch, Simova & Keil, in prep.), which may explain important part of the inconsistent results published in macroecology in the last decade.
In collaboration with Walter Jetz I successfully tested and validated new statistical framework that allows to map species and biodiversity in areas for which we only have limited information from coarse-scale spatial units (Keil et al. 2013 Methods in Ecology and Evolution; Keil et al. 2014 Diversity and Distributions; Keil & Jetz 2014 Ecological Applications). I also established a collaboration with Hugh Sturrock (UC San Francisco) which resulted in using the same tools to map vectors of malaria in southern Africa (Sturrock, Keil, et al. 2014 Malaria Journal).
The project I resulted in 9 publications in ISI-listed peer-reviewed journals, and an additional one pending minor revision in Nature Communications. The results of were also a base for a successful 2-year grant proposal “Assessing extinction: Crossover of geometrical, macroecological and Bayesian perspectives” awarded by German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) to Petr Keil.
POTENTIAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT AND WIDER SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS
In Keil et al. (2015) we offer a concise theory that enables to estimate magnitude of biodiversity loss with the loss of habitable area under various spatial arrangements of the loss. When human-caused habitat loss is inevitable, e.g. for political or economic reasons, our theory can help to prescribe modes of habitat destruction that at least minimize the negative impacts on biodiversity. These high-profile results should also help to steer the attention of the conservation community more towards other aspects of biodiversity, such as phylogenetic or functional diversity.
Many of the software tools have been available to the broad community. The tools that map geographic origins of phylogenetic lineages have been compiled in the form of a software package, enabling reconstruction of biogeographic and evolutionary histories of any taxa (Quintero, Keil et al. 2015). I also promote the use of my methods to downscale species distributions in other fields – for example, the methods have been employed in southern Africa to map areas of potential presence of malaria vectors (Sturrock, Keil, et al., Malaria Journal). In the future I expect wider application of these tools in epidemiology, conservation biology, climatology, image processing and remote sensing.
REFERENCES
1. Keil P., Storch D. & Jetz W. (2015) The decline of species richness and of phylogenetic and functional diversity due to area loss. Nature Communications, pending minor revision.
2. Quintero I., Keil P., Jetz W. & Crawford F.: Historical biogeography using species geographical ranges. Systematic Biology, in press.
3. Sturrock H., Cohen J.M. Keil P., et al. (2014) Fine-scale malaria risk mapping from routine aggregated case data. In review in Malaria Journal, 13: 421.
4. Keil P., Wilson A.O. & Jetz W. (2014) Uncertainty, priors, autocorrelation and disparate data in downscaling of species distributions. Diversity and Distributions, 20: 797-812.
5. Keil P. & Jetz W. (2014) Downscaling the environmental associations and spatial patterns of species richness. Ecological Applications, 24: 823-831.
6. Pechacek P., Stella D., Keil P. & Kleisner K. (2014) Environmental effects on the shape variation of male ultraviolet patterns in the brimstone butterfly (Gonepteryx rhamni, Pieridae, Lepidoptera). Naturwissenschaften, 101: 1055-1063.