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HOP! - Macro-economic impact of High Oil Price in Europe


To deliver quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the impact of high oil prices on EU economy and employment, the HOP! project will adopt methods and tools already used in STEPs and TRIAS, the two consortia awarded in the 6th FP to "develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy supply of the future". The HOP! project will run POLES (the energy model developed within the European Research Area to produce the "World Energy Technology and climate Outlook" WETO) in interface with ASTRA (the strategic transport and macroeconomic System Dynamics Model developed in the 4th FRP for DG TREN and since then continuously improved) in a carefully selected number of scenarios.

The dynamic features of the two models are well suited to describe the consequences of step-changes in oil prices. Differently than CGE models - where price elasticities are calibrated based on past developments that never included such strong price increases - POLES and ASTRA follow the feedback lo op concept where structures and structural change, modelled trough an input output table, determine the economic outcomes. Methods, assumptions and input used in the HOP! project, as well as its outcome, shall be open to discussion within the scientific community. As this will ensure consensus on the soundness of the evaluations, quantitative and qualitative analyses produced by HOP!, will allow policy makers to answer several 'what if?' questions related to variations of oil and gas prices, their imp act on the EU economy and influence of possible policy measures.

The HOP! project final expectation is that pioneering quantitative and qualitative analysis of the impacts of high oil prices on the EU economy and employment can significantly contribute t o consolidate European strategies, including the emerging of a Common Energy Policy for Europe.

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Via Rutilia, 10/8

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