Final Report Summary - HYWAYS (Development of a harmonised "European Hydrogen Energy RoAdmap" by a balanced group of partners from industry, European regions and ... modelling experts)
Within the HYWAYS project, a roadmap and action plan for the introduction of hydrogen into the energy system have been developed. Hydrogen is an energy carrier with zero carbon content. Just like electricity, hydrogen can be produced from all energy resources, like biomass, wind and solar energy, nuclear energy and clean fossil fuels. It can be converted to power and heat with high efficiency and zero emissions, especially when used in fuel cells. It improves security of supply due to the de-coupling of demand and resources, allowing each European member state to choose its own energy sources.
The project was structured into interrelated work packages (WPs) as follows:
WP1 was the initiating work package for all consecutive modelling activities Member State by Member State. Its task was to identify a set of relevant hydrogen energy chains, the individual processes belonging to them, the data and information gaps for their compilation and finally select those six - eight hydrogen energy chains which were the most relevant for each Member State.
WP2 calculated the energy uses, emissions and costs associated to processes of hydrogen chains, from well-to-wheel (WtW, for road transport) and source-to-user (StU, for other uses).
The individual steps to be performed in WP 2 comprised:
- compilation of process data via extraction from the standard technology dataset documented in E3database, respectively as provided by industry partners implemented additionally into E3database;
- possibly configuring of mixed pathways / scenarios for transport, stationary, residential and / or industrial user context respectively pathways for one user context but mixed primary energy input;
- calculation of the defined pathways/ user contexts with E3database based on the input of WP 1 task 3; taking into account the different input data qualities and time frame related uncertainties through Monte-Carlo-simulations for the time horizons 2010, 2020 bearing possible developments until 2050 in mind;
- evaluation of obtained results and graphical display showing ranges of uncertainty related to the different input data qualities (e.g. time frame considered), the various process variants (e.g. local or remote resources), the various fuel / process qualities (e.g. for biomass, for natural gas);
- data transfer e.g. process by process to other simulation models in specified pre-defined fields applicable for a given process as MS-Excel spread sheet;
- besides the calculation of pathways in E3database, the verification of available resources per member / candidate state, in particular renewable energy sources has to be achieved. A common understanding / basis has to be agreed upon among the partners on which basis to estimate these potentials in order to ensure European compatibility;
- establishment of interface with the modelling framework for socio-economic analysis.
The goal of WP 3 was to identify how the most likely routes for the introduction of hydrogen will influence all European sectors of activity: technology modifications, new infrastructure needed and integration with existing ones, changes in the economy, social implications and environmental impact. To ensure realistic results, the analyses were made attending the specificities of each region.
The work in this WP consisted of providing precise region specific data to modelling tools covering the areas of energy, environment and macro-economy as well as to determine the hydrogen introduction pathways on a country / regional level. The WP consisted of six distinct objectives (tasks):
- regions profiling and barriers and opportunities analysis;
- scenario development;
- infrastructure analysis;
- energy system analysis;
- socio-economic I/O model;
- impacts on a macro-level;
- emission analysis.
For WP4, the first objective of Phase I was to provide an introduction to the European hydrogen energy roadmap (based on the six countries included in Phase I) and to develop a mission statement. The second objective of this work package was to derive a toolbox. This toolbox has a twofold function. First it serves the project itself by providing a report, which documents the general approach, the interaction between the work packages and the related activities, as well as the lessons learned in Phase I, which was used in Phase II to increase the project's efficiency. Secondly, the toolbox serves external needs, i.e. providing a general framework for developing roadmaps on the basis of quantitative and qualitative analysis including stakeholder involvement. A fully validated European hydrogen energy roadmap (based on 12 representative region / Member State specific results as derived in WP 3) has been compiled in Phase II of the project.
The HYWAYS project compiled all pivotal technological and socio-economic aspects related to a future hydrogen infrastructure build-up and provided a number of scenarios under different assumptions. It showed the advantage of the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel and indicated the financial effort necessary to reach the break-even point. The HYWAYS project differs from other road mapping exercises as it integrated stakeholder preferences, obtained from multiple member state workshops, with extensive modelling in an iterative way covering both technological and socio-economic aspects. This approach enables qualitative data to be incorporated in a systematic and structured manner with quantitative infrastructure analysis, thus adding significantly to the common quantitative modelling approach adopted by other roadmaps.
The introduction of hydrogen into the energy system faces two major barriers:
- Cost reduction. The costs of the hydrogen end-use applications, especially for road transport, need to be reduced considerably to become competitive. A substantial increase in R&D investments is needed with a well balanced distribution for deployment to ensure that the economic break-even point is reached as soon as possible at minimum cumulative costs.
- Policy support. Hydrogen must be moved forward on the agenda of the ministries responsible for the reduction of greenhouse gasses and other pollutants and ministries dealing with security of supply. Currently, the required deployment support schemes for hydrogen end-use technologies and infrastructure build-up are lacking and R&D budgets need to be increased.
Hydrogen is a cost effective CO2 emission reduction option. The costs to reduce CO2 emissions decrease by 4 % in 2030 and 15 % in 2050 compared to a base line scenario without hydrogen. Emissions from road transport can be reduced by over 50 % in 2050. The transition to hydrogen offers an economic opportunity by strengthening Europe's position in car and energy equipment manufacturing. Like electricity, hydrogen de-couples energy demand from resources. The total oil consumption of road transport can decrease by around 40 % up to 2050 as compared to today by replacing 80 % of the conventional vehicles by hydrogen vehicles. Introduction of hydrogen in the energy system offers the opportunity to increase the share of renewable energy. Hydrogen vehicles can be produced and operated cost effectively once initial barriers such as the cost reduction of drive trains and infrastructure build-up have been overcome. In particular, in combination with fuel cells, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels if oil prices stay above 50 - 60 USD per barrel. Still, policy support schemes are needed to facilitate cost reduction of the drive train through economy of scale and R&D, preventing severe underutilisation of the hydrogen infrastructure.
Hydrogen can become a cost-effective innovation with positive impacts on environment and economy. First, the step towards large scale demonstration has to be made. Production of small series of vehicles has started but has to be scaled up further soon. A quick ramp up of market penetration is needed in order to create revenue to earn back the upfront investments in infrastructure build-up. Appropriate deployment incentives, such as financial support schemes, for the deployment of these vehicles are however lacking. The past and current Framework Programmes of the EC have a general nature and focus on R&D. Therefore, they are not applicable in demonstration projects for (significant) series of identical vehicles. In this crucial phase technology specific deployment support and R&D must go hand-in-hand.
A European public private partnership between industry and the EC is the most suitable framework where these conditions can be met. This can be in the form of a so-called Joint Technology Initiative (JTI). Without a European public private partnership, the roll out of large scale demonstration projects will seriously be hampered. This imposes a serious threat, since the large scale demonstration projects play a key role in convincing policy makers that hydrogen has to be supported, starting now. The commitment shown by policy makers to drive hydrogen forward will strongly determine the pace with which industry is able and willing to make the required investments.
The project was structured into interrelated work packages (WPs) as follows:
WP1 was the initiating work package for all consecutive modelling activities Member State by Member State. Its task was to identify a set of relevant hydrogen energy chains, the individual processes belonging to them, the data and information gaps for their compilation and finally select those six - eight hydrogen energy chains which were the most relevant for each Member State.
WP2 calculated the energy uses, emissions and costs associated to processes of hydrogen chains, from well-to-wheel (WtW, for road transport) and source-to-user (StU, for other uses).
The individual steps to be performed in WP 2 comprised:
- compilation of process data via extraction from the standard technology dataset documented in E3database, respectively as provided by industry partners implemented additionally into E3database;
- possibly configuring of mixed pathways / scenarios for transport, stationary, residential and / or industrial user context respectively pathways for one user context but mixed primary energy input;
- calculation of the defined pathways/ user contexts with E3database based on the input of WP 1 task 3; taking into account the different input data qualities and time frame related uncertainties through Monte-Carlo-simulations for the time horizons 2010, 2020 bearing possible developments until 2050 in mind;
- evaluation of obtained results and graphical display showing ranges of uncertainty related to the different input data qualities (e.g. time frame considered), the various process variants (e.g. local or remote resources), the various fuel / process qualities (e.g. for biomass, for natural gas);
- data transfer e.g. process by process to other simulation models in specified pre-defined fields applicable for a given process as MS-Excel spread sheet;
- besides the calculation of pathways in E3database, the verification of available resources per member / candidate state, in particular renewable energy sources has to be achieved. A common understanding / basis has to be agreed upon among the partners on which basis to estimate these potentials in order to ensure European compatibility;
- establishment of interface with the modelling framework for socio-economic analysis.
The goal of WP 3 was to identify how the most likely routes for the introduction of hydrogen will influence all European sectors of activity: technology modifications, new infrastructure needed and integration with existing ones, changes in the economy, social implications and environmental impact. To ensure realistic results, the analyses were made attending the specificities of each region.
The work in this WP consisted of providing precise region specific data to modelling tools covering the areas of energy, environment and macro-economy as well as to determine the hydrogen introduction pathways on a country / regional level. The WP consisted of six distinct objectives (tasks):
- regions profiling and barriers and opportunities analysis;
- scenario development;
- infrastructure analysis;
- energy system analysis;
- socio-economic I/O model;
- impacts on a macro-level;
- emission analysis.
For WP4, the first objective of Phase I was to provide an introduction to the European hydrogen energy roadmap (based on the six countries included in Phase I) and to develop a mission statement. The second objective of this work package was to derive a toolbox. This toolbox has a twofold function. First it serves the project itself by providing a report, which documents the general approach, the interaction between the work packages and the related activities, as well as the lessons learned in Phase I, which was used in Phase II to increase the project's efficiency. Secondly, the toolbox serves external needs, i.e. providing a general framework for developing roadmaps on the basis of quantitative and qualitative analysis including stakeholder involvement. A fully validated European hydrogen energy roadmap (based on 12 representative region / Member State specific results as derived in WP 3) has been compiled in Phase II of the project.
The HYWAYS project compiled all pivotal technological and socio-economic aspects related to a future hydrogen infrastructure build-up and provided a number of scenarios under different assumptions. It showed the advantage of the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel and indicated the financial effort necessary to reach the break-even point. The HYWAYS project differs from other road mapping exercises as it integrated stakeholder preferences, obtained from multiple member state workshops, with extensive modelling in an iterative way covering both technological and socio-economic aspects. This approach enables qualitative data to be incorporated in a systematic and structured manner with quantitative infrastructure analysis, thus adding significantly to the common quantitative modelling approach adopted by other roadmaps.
The introduction of hydrogen into the energy system faces two major barriers:
- Cost reduction. The costs of the hydrogen end-use applications, especially for road transport, need to be reduced considerably to become competitive. A substantial increase in R&D investments is needed with a well balanced distribution for deployment to ensure that the economic break-even point is reached as soon as possible at minimum cumulative costs.
- Policy support. Hydrogen must be moved forward on the agenda of the ministries responsible for the reduction of greenhouse gasses and other pollutants and ministries dealing with security of supply. Currently, the required deployment support schemes for hydrogen end-use technologies and infrastructure build-up are lacking and R&D budgets need to be increased.
Hydrogen is a cost effective CO2 emission reduction option. The costs to reduce CO2 emissions decrease by 4 % in 2030 and 15 % in 2050 compared to a base line scenario without hydrogen. Emissions from road transport can be reduced by over 50 % in 2050. The transition to hydrogen offers an economic opportunity by strengthening Europe's position in car and energy equipment manufacturing. Like electricity, hydrogen de-couples energy demand from resources. The total oil consumption of road transport can decrease by around 40 % up to 2050 as compared to today by replacing 80 % of the conventional vehicles by hydrogen vehicles. Introduction of hydrogen in the energy system offers the opportunity to increase the share of renewable energy. Hydrogen vehicles can be produced and operated cost effectively once initial barriers such as the cost reduction of drive trains and infrastructure build-up have been overcome. In particular, in combination with fuel cells, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels if oil prices stay above 50 - 60 USD per barrel. Still, policy support schemes are needed to facilitate cost reduction of the drive train through economy of scale and R&D, preventing severe underutilisation of the hydrogen infrastructure.
Hydrogen can become a cost-effective innovation with positive impacts on environment and economy. First, the step towards large scale demonstration has to be made. Production of small series of vehicles has started but has to be scaled up further soon. A quick ramp up of market penetration is needed in order to create revenue to earn back the upfront investments in infrastructure build-up. Appropriate deployment incentives, such as financial support schemes, for the deployment of these vehicles are however lacking. The past and current Framework Programmes of the EC have a general nature and focus on R&D. Therefore, they are not applicable in demonstration projects for (significant) series of identical vehicles. In this crucial phase technology specific deployment support and R&D must go hand-in-hand.
A European public private partnership between industry and the EC is the most suitable framework where these conditions can be met. This can be in the form of a so-called Joint Technology Initiative (JTI). Without a European public private partnership, the roll out of large scale demonstration projects will seriously be hampered. This imposes a serious threat, since the large scale demonstration projects play a key role in convincing policy makers that hydrogen has to be supported, starting now. The commitment shown by policy makers to drive hydrogen forward will strongly determine the pace with which industry is able and willing to make the required investments.
