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Frequent observation-driven realistic evaluation and simulation of interaction of geophysical hazard triggers


The overarching scientific objective of FORESIGHT is to understand the mechanically coupled, interrelated processes leading to the hazardous activity associated with earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides and tsunamis. To assess, mitigate and manage the risks posed by these hazards, existing and fresh data from multi-sensor surveillance networks and satellites will be combined within a time-dependent Geographic Information System (GIS). To harmonise data and methodologies for understanding geophysical processes across Europe, FORESIGHT will focus on four natural laboratories: Iceland, Azores, Alps and Turkey. FORESIGHT, like its FP5 predecessor RETINA, will emphasise the mechanical coupling and temporal interactions between geophysical processes. FORESIGHT will apply advanced methods of GIS analysis to enhance physical models for calculating, predicting, and interpreting the consequences of such geophysical activity. FORESIGHT will support the implementation of new European-scale risk management systems by civil defence participants in the project. To achieve these goals, the FORESIGHT consortium seeks to: 1) Recognise times of increased geophysical activity by assimilating fresh data from existing sensors; 2) Locate areas of increased geophysical activity by mapp ing crustal deformation, seismicity, and other indicators; 3) Develop exploitable models for the physical mechanisms underlying correlated events; 4) Calculate stress fields to identify areas where one event may trigger another; 5) Identify times and areas of increased hazard, accounting for triggered events in conditional probabilities; 6) Introduce these time-dependent assessments of hazard into risk management systems; 7) Share expertise and resources in risk management at the European level. As a result , FORESIGHT will help reduce the effects of natural disasters upon the citizens and infrastructure of Europe.

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Participants (13)