Objective
A.BACKGROUND
The European climate in the 21st Century is likely to be warmer, with drier summers, wetter winters, and more variable patterns of rainfall and temperature. The major cause of this climate change is the increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). Before the Industrial Revolution, the atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 270 ppm (parts per million) but it has now risen by about 30% to 360 ppm. The increase in atmospheric CO2 is driven by the emission of 5.5 gigatons (Gt) of carbon per year from fossil fuels and industrial activity and an additional 1.6 Gt per year from deforestation. Terrestrial ecosystems and oceans absorb some of these emissions, but on average 3.4 Gt of carbon accumulates in the atmosphere each year. The terrestrial sink for carbon is the small difference between the large amounts of carbon exchanged between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Currently, this sink accounts for about 2 Gt of carbon per year. However, it is not certain if terrestrial ecosystems will continue to be sinks in the future and what, if any, the upper limit of sequestration is.
Any estimates of the magnitude of carbon sinks in ecosystems is dependent on the drawing up of a full carbon budget which accounts for the initial uptake of carbon through photosynthesis (Gross Primary Production; GPP), and its subsequent partial losses through plant respiration and soil and litter respiration to give net ecosystem production (NEP). These full-system carbon budgets must be applied over large spatial and long time scales in order to fully quantify the contribution that any ecosystem makes as a carbon sink. In addition, one of the most important problems concerning the operation of the terrestrial carbon sink is the extent to which nutrient supplies limit the potential increase in net primary productivity (NPP) and NEP. This is particularly important because the global budget of reactive (non-N2) nitrogen is being perturbed by anthropogenic activity proportionately more than that of carbon.
In most ecosystems, and in particular grasslands, the below-ground compartment (soils and roots) is especially important. About two-thirds of terrestrial carbon is found below ground, and below-ground carbon generally has slower turnover rates than above-ground carbon. Consequently, carbon storage can be maintained over longer periods of time because it is normally better protected than above-ground carbon, particularly in disturbed ecosystems. Any increase in carbon storage in soils can be achieved through higher input rates and/or slower turnover of that carbon.
In addition to CO2, two other trace gases play an important role in the net greenhouse gas exchange of grassland ecosystems. Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a global warming potential which is 200 to 300 times greater than that of CO2. It is produced by both nitrification and denitrification in soils and, as emissions from grasslands are stronger than from cropped soils, the contribution from grasslands to national inventories of N2O emissions can be important. Emissions of N2O are usually related to the amount of fertilizer applied and, in terms of CO2 warming potential, typical values are equivalent to 0.2 - 2.0 tC ha-1 y-1. Methane (CH4) is released from ruminant animals grazing grasslands and has a global warming potential which is 21 times that of CO2. The annual emission of CH4 originating from fermentation in the rumen of a single cow is estimated to be 0.8 - 2.8 tC as CO2 equivalents. Clearly, the role of grasslands as sources and sinks for greenhouse gasses is complex and is strongly influenced by management regimes such as stocking rates, duration of grazing periods, cutting, manure application and fertilizer treatments.
Following the Kyoto Protocol, Annex 1 countries are committed to reducing their overall emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008-2012. This is probably just the beginning of a process to reduce emissions even further in the near future as international negotiations under the Conference of Parties continue during the coming years. At present, the removal of greenhouse gases by sinks are limited to direct human-induced land use change and forest activities limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation since 1990, measured as verifiable changes in stocks in each commitment period. But the long term ability of forests to continue to sequester carbon is open to question. There are, however, many more ways that appropriate management of the terrestrial biosphere, especially soils, can substantially reduce the build up of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It is anticipated that countries will be held responsible for reporting on the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities and (human-induced) land use changes and to achieve targeted reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, managed and semi-natural grassland ecosystems that are widely spread across the European continent must be considered as potential sinks for carbon and their contribution quantified.
There are varying and uncertain estimates of the amounts of carbon stored in grasslands worldwide. The variation depends mainly on the estimated area of grasslands and this is partly dependent on the definition of grasslands. In Europe, permanent grasslands account for more than 30% of the land area in the UK and Ireland and between 20 and 30% of the land area of France and Spain. This area has varied in the past and will continue to vary in the future as a result of land use change. This has involved, in some cases, the conversion of permanent grassland to arable use and to woodlands. All these changes have impacts on carbon storage. Globally, estimates of the relative amounts of carbon in grassland vary from 13 to 26% of the total ecosystem store, and this compares with an estimated carbon storage in tropical forests of 19%. Although it is not possible at present to give an accurate estimate of the total amount of carbon stored by grasslands, it is clear that it is very significant, particularly in Europe. This action is therefore directed at resolving some of these unknowns for the European continent.
The COST action will focus on the need to develop at a European scale:
- An integrated approach to study the management and manageability of stocks and flows of carbon in the soil, plant and atmosphere system of grasslands at ecosystem, regional and continental scales.
- A better understanding of the carbon-nitrogen interactions in grassland soils and the impacts of changing land-use in a changing environment on carbon storage and carbon emissions.
- The integration of quantitative outputs from facilities which are measuring carbon fluxes of grasslands across Europe.
- The use of models and agreed scenarios to quantify the present and future storage of carbon in European grasslands.
B.OBJECTIVES AND BENEFITS
In support of European commitments to the Kyoto Protocol, the main objective of the Action is to quantify, through experimentation and modelling, carbon storage in European grassland ecosystems and to identify the mechanisms controlling carbon allocation in plants and soils of grasslands, in order to assess the contribution that European grasslands make to the total biosphere sinks for carbon under different forms of management in a changing environment. Management is taken to mean varying nutrient inputs and cutting or grazing practices as well as land use changes. The changing environment includes increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2, O3 and reactive nitrogen deposition (NOx, NH3), rising temperature and changed patterns of rainfall.
Secondary objectives are to:
(i)Determine the impacts of land use change (e.g. grassland to arable and vice versa) on carbon sequestration and carbon emissions.
(ii)Investigate the interactions between nutrient cycles in grassland ecosystems and the processes which lead to carbon sequestration and carbon emissions.
(iii)Investigate the impacts of changes in rainfall pattern and rising global temperatures on carbon uptake or loss in grasslands and in particular the possibility of sink reversal under conditions of climate change.
(iv)Stimulate collaboration in order to build monitoring capabilities for a European carbon flux network for grasslands.
(vi)Develop and use mechanistic models of ecosystem carbon cycling linked to GIS to allow scaling from experimental plots to the landscape and region.
(vii)Stimulate the cooperation between the participants and relevant national and EU programmes and global programmes like IGBP (International Geosphere Biosphere Programme).
Ultimately, this COST action will allow a quantifiable assessment of the ability of grasslands in Europe to sequester carbon and give an indication of the long-term stability of the sequestered carbon. The information would then be used to help formulate land management policy to optimise their capacity as carbon sinks. This Action will be fully aware of the Environment and Sustainable Development research programme of the EU 5th FP, in particular Key Action 2, Area 2.2.2; "Interactions between ecosystems and the carbon and nitrogen cycles". The information derived from the action will be of great importance in improving the effectiveness of the existing Kyoto Protocol and in future negotiations beyond the Kyoto Agreement. In particular, it will assist in the implementation of Articles 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol, regarding the potential for human-induced activities to reduce net emissions of greenhouse gases and the associated risks.
C.SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME
Grassland ecosystems are composed of plants, soils, soil organisms and plant grazers. Process studies will focus on plant and soil components and will then be integrated at the ecosystem level.
At all levels the key questions to be asked are as follows:
- What are the present rates of C storage in different European grasslands?
- How can C storage be spatially integrated across Europe?
- How does C storage vary with grassland types?
- What is the effect of soil type on C storage?
- How does climate influence C storage and what will happen to C storage under climate change?
- How will C storage be influenced by N deposition?
- What will happen to C storage under land use change?
- What are the links between C storage and the release of trace gases, particularly nitrous oxide and methane?
- How can climate change scenarios be used to predict C storage in the future?
Plant, Soil and Microbe Level
At the plant level, the primary task will be to investigate carbon gain and carbon partitioning in grassland plants under the influence of environmental factors and management.
The sub-tasks are as follows:
- The modification of carbon uptake by environment and management.
- Changes in net and gross carbon partitioning.
- The loss of carbon by respiration, litter production, rhizodeposition and exudation.
- The role of feed-back loops in the integration of plant carbon fluxes.
Primary production, through plant growth, is the main source of organic matter in soil. Organic C enters the soil via litter and rhizodeposition, where it is transformed by soil biota into other organic compounds or returned to the atmosphere as CO2. If the carbon content of an ecosystem increases, this storage occurs mainly as soil organic matter. An understanding of the factors that determine decomposability of litter and rhizodeposits is needed to predict i) the potential of soils to sequester C and help to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and ii) the mineralisation dynamics of plant residues in soil. Soil micro-organisms are not just transformers and inhabitants of soil but they are part of the soil. They make up a relatively small part of the soil organic matter but are the major producers of the soil organic matter. Soil organic matter is, to a large extent, dead microbial biomass or microbial products. Their location within the soil matrix and their quality will determine their refractory behaviour in soil.
Input rates of organic C into the soil system are hard to quantify, particularly for natural ecosystems and to a lesser extent for agricultural ecosystems. Whereas quantity and quality of input of carbon via litter fall and plant residues after harvest might be directly measurable, inputs via roots and rhizodeposition are more difficult to assess.
The release of organic compounds from roots of growing plants may have substantial effect on vital soil ecosystem processes, such as organic matter dynamics, structure formation and nutrient cycling. The fundamental mechanisms involved are not yet fully understood and there is still no proper quantification of the release of organic and inorganic C compounds from roots or the assessment of seasonal dynamics in various ecosystems. It is important to realise that any changes in the proportional allocation of carbon that forms coarse and fine roots, or in the rate of exudation, may affect C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. Changes in carbon distribution pattern between exudation, fine roots and coarse roots may strongly affect subsequent decompositions patterns; some materials may be protected within the soil matrix while others remain unprotected.
At the soil level, the primary research task will be to investigate the carbon transfer from plants to soil organic matter, the sequestration of carbon in soil organic matter, soil organic matter mineralisation and supply of nutrients by the soil under the influence of environmental factors including land use changes and management.
The sub-tasks are as follows:
- Impact of litter, exudation and rhizodeposition on soil organic matter formation and on nutrient mineralization in relation to environmental change.
- The influence of mycorrhiza and rhizobia on rates of C-sequestration.
- The use of chronosequences to estimate the rates of C-sequestration in soils.
An important component of the COST programme is the development, use and exchange of (stable and radio) isotope techniques across laboratories in Europe and the cooperation, exchange and use of large-scale and unique facilities across Europe such as FACE-rings, rhizotrons and labelling phytotrons. These techniques and facilities will be exploited in order to further the research tasks.
Ecosystem level
At the ecosystem level, the primary task will be to coordinate research which will investigate the impacts of different management practices and a changing environment on the carbon balance of selected grassland ecosystems at different locations across Europe. Carbon balance will be quantified in terms of carbon gain in assimilation and losses in respiration (net ecosystem productivity or NEP). These measurements need to be extended over sufficiently long time scales in order to project, using models, changes in long-term carbon storage (Net Biome Production, NBP) which occur after decades and up to centuries. NBP is a small fraction of the initial uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere and can be positive or negative. However NBP is the critical parameter to consider for long-term carbon storage. This approach will allow the quantification of carbon storage (sequestration and losses) on the basis of full accounting. The timescale for these observations should distinguish between short term (years) and long term (decades to centuries) as the potential for soils to sequester C may vary over time. Clearly, the difficulty is that experiments are only possible over the timescale of years so that modelling will be essential to extend the timescale. The components of the carbon balance will be studied as subtasks, which contribute to the primary task.
The sub-tasks are as follows:
- Net carbon assimilation.
- Respiration components i.e. roots and soils.
- Litter production, rhizodeposition and root death.
- Soil organic matter stabilisation and decomposition.
- Changes in species composition and the influence on carbon balance and nutrient cycling.
- Losses of C to groundwater as influenced by management and land use change.
Technical approaches to ecosytem studies will also be developed and validated. Probably the most important of these will be efforts to establish a European flux monitoring network for grasslands, similar to that already in operation for the forests of Europe (Euroflux project of DG XII/D). This network uses the eddy correlation technique, which is now widely acknowledged as the standard for a global carbon flux monitoring system. The equivalent network for grasslands has yet to be established in Europe but this COST Action will be used to stimulate this activity and provide an inventory of existing and planned contributions from partner countries.
Data sets, modelling, scaling and scenarios
The main activities associated with these tasks will investigate the time-scale of changes and processes and integrate the information derived in mechanistic (and stochastic) models of a carbon balance for grassland ecosystems at the ecosystem level. The principal aims of the models will be to make predictions about the carbon balance of European grasslands under a range of scenarios. Models used will be Dynamic, Deterministic and Mechanistic. Dynamic refers to the need to account for time courses for various variables such as soil organic matter. Deterministic means that the models should make predictions of variables without any associated probability distribution. Mechanistic implies that models should be based on assumptions about the mechanisms of processes represented in the model derived from the process studies. This means that any predictions that models make can be traced back to what these processes are doing. Models will be linked to GIS to allow scaling up to the landscape and the region. It will be necessary to standardize the format of the data sets, to stimulate exchange of data and to simulate the consequences of agreed management scenarios on C fluxes in grasslands.
The sub-tasks will be as follows:
- Collation of data sets for modelling activities.
- Identification and comparison of suitable ecosystem models to estimate C storage.
- Identification of common protocols for scaling and establishing regional estimates of C storage.
- Identification and application of agreed climate scenarios for regional estimates of C storage.
- Representation of uncertainties in models including uncertainties in representing observed climate and uncertainties in social and economic projections.
D. ORGANISATION AND TIMETABLE
This action will conform to the document COST 400/94 " Rules and Procedures for Implementing COST Actions" (the R&P). Consequently, the Action will be governed by a Management Committee (MC) consisting of representatives approved by the signatories and the MoU and having tasks specified in the R&P.
The duration of the Action is planned for five years. This duration of time is necessary because of the amount of work that is involved and the fact that quantification of carbon sequestration is reliant on long-term field studies. It is widely accepted that ecosystem studies derive large additional benefits from several years of continuous observations. The programme of work, particularly at the ecosystem level, will require measurements to be extended over sufficiently time scales in order to project, using models, changes in long term carbon storage. The projections will be for decades and up to centuries. In order to collect reliable data for these long-term projections it is necessary to extend field observations over at least four to five years of experimentation and observation. Projections beyond this time is by modelling but models cannot be verified on the basis of short term observations.
The organisation of this Action will be based on a number of Working Groups (WGs) reporting to the MC on a regular basis throughout the programme. The following three WGs will be formed in the first instance:
WG1. Plant, soil and microbe studies.
WG2. Ecosystem studies.
WG3.Data sets, modelling and scaling.
WG4. Scenarios and policy implications.
The reason for forming these working groups is that we have divided the process studies between plant soil and microbe level and ecosystem level studies. Each of these will form a working group (WG1 and WG2 respectively). The requirement to integrate the studies of WG1 and WG2 is met by WG 3 on data sets, modelling and scaling. WG4 will have the task of taking outputs from WG3 and deriving information on carbon storage in grasslands, which will be made available to end users and policy analysts to assess social implications and economic consequences. End users are national, EU and global agencies in areas of the environment, global change, sustainable development, land management and agriculture who are providing information for the policy makers.
The number of working groups may extend up to five as the Action evolves; one possible development may be the need to have an additional WG dedicated to addressing the interactions between CO2 and other trace gasses in determining greenhouse gas budgets for grasslands.
Each WG will elect a Coordinator who will assist the Chairperson in ensuring that the work of the WGs is coordinated. Overseeing the activities of each WG will be the responsibility of the MC.
Coordination of the research proposed in the programme will be achieved by establishing common research teams within the working groups. Short-term missions will be a key contributor to these common programmes by allowing researchers to move between groups. Consequently, each working group will, at an early stage, establish a programme of planned short-term missions. Approval for these missions will come from the MC which meets regularly. The aim will be to achieve optimum flexibility as research develops within any of the working groups.
The MC will be aware of possible links to other relevant COST Actions and encourage interactions. At present, COST Action 623 "Soil erosion and global change" has been identified as the most closely associated Action.
The timetable for organisation is shown in Table 1. Coordination of the Action is achieved by means of Annual Workshops towards the end of the first three years, a symposium at the end of the fourth year and a concluding major conference after five years aimed at policy makers.
Links to other research groups and research programmes (e.g. GCTE-LUCC activities within IGBP) will be achieved by integration of some COST Action WG meetings into international scientific meetings.
Success of the Action will be judged on the basis of joint publications, participation in international scientific meetings, provision of outputs for end users and external review.
E. ECONOMIC DIMENSION
The following COST countries have actively participated in the preparation of the Action or otherwise indicated their interest: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
On the basis of national estimates provided by the representatives of these countries and taking into account the coordination costs to be covered over the COST budget of the European Commission, the overall costs of the activities to be carried out under the Action has been estimated at 1999 prices, at EUR 24 million for a five-year period. The figure is based on estimates of numbers of researchers working on climate impacts on grasslands in each country with a notional cost of Euro 75000 per-person year of full-time research position: Austria (4 Researchers), Belgium (4), Denmark (4), Finland (3), France (5), Germany (5), Greece (3), Hungary (4), Ireland (3), Italy (3), the Netherlands (5), Norway (3), Slovenia (3), Spain (3), Sweden (3), Switzerland (5), the UK (5).
The estimate is valid on the assumption that all the countries mentioned above, but no others, will participate in the Action. Any departure from this will change the total cost accordingly.
F. DISSEMINATION OF RESULTS
Several groups have been targeted to which results will be disseminated as follows:
- Researchers.
- Policy analysts.
- Policy makers.
- Land managers (farmers).
The types of questions which may be posed by these groups, and answered through this Action, are as follows:
- How does grassland management differ across Europe and what is the impact of this on C-sequestration?
- Can land managers (farmers) manage soil organic matter and if so what are the consequences for C-sequestration?
- How large is the grassland area required to meet specific C-sequestration targets and what is the optimal distribution?
- What are the social and economic costs of meeting specified targets?
- What are the management options to maximize production and C-sequestration at the same time?
- How is information on options most effectively communicated to the farmer?
Methods to distribute results to the different groups are outlined below. A working group (WG4) will be established to deal specifically with the transfer of the scientific data from other WGs to the target groups for dissemination.
- Each participant will be requested to contribute to a central website managed by WG4 from the outset of the COST Action.
- Reports of findings will be made available to national authorities responsible for agricultural and environmental policy via National Representatives in the COST Action. Through active involvement with such organisations, research findings will be synthesised into applicable recommendations for practical use in management plans (Agricultural Departments) and/or policy considerations (Environmental Departments).
- Results will also be made available to National and EU Environment Policy Analysts and policy makers. A key contact point will be through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working groups, via WG4.
- Results and research findings will be disseminated through conventional methods including: peer reviewed publications, scientific reports, summary reports and the popular press.
The principal aim of the annual workshops, the symposium and the concluding conference will be to present results. These sessions will also allow for feedback and interdisciplinary communication. Results of research carried out by the working groups will be submitted to international scientific journals and reviews. The MC will encourage and promote dissemination of results through joint publications.
The timing of dissemination of results is indicated by the timetable of organisation. Researchers will be continually updated through the WG meetings (once or twice each year) and annual workshops. Policy analysts and policy makers will be involved in annual meetings. They will progressively disseminate information to land managers. Land managers will be particularly involved in the symposium in Year 4, by which time sufficient information should be available for clear guidelines on land management to maximise carbon sequestration. The final evaluation meeting with end-users will assess the contribution of the COST Action to achieving the aims of maximising carbon storage in European grasslands.
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