In the second reporting period, the FRESHER Consortium achieved all WP and project objectives. WP1 and WP7 supported project development by ensuring management and communication with the EC, consortium partners and external stakeholders. WP2 and WP3, preliminary respectively to WP5 and WP4, successfully finalized their activities in the first reporting period by doing the ground work for the Micro-Simulation construction and the Scenarios building. WP4, WP5 and WP6 developed the Health Scenarios, the micro-simulation model and the Research Agenda.
The following activities were carried out and related results were achieved in the reporting period. WP4 ranked by importance and uncertainty the trends emerged in WP3 through the survey “What will impact your health the most?”, reporting results in in the “Health scenario stories” (D4.1). Fully fledged FRESHER Health Scenarios were subsequently developed thanks to consortium members and stakeholders’ inputs. The II FRESHER survey “How healthy will your future be?” elicited stakeholders’ contributions to liaise the scenarios with the micro-simulation model and to imagine innovative sets of policies. Three regional workshops downscaled the Scenarios (Warsaw, Coruna, Helsinki). Drawing on these activities, ISINNOVA wrote the “Report on consolidated scenario storylines and quantitative simulation results” (D4.2). WP5 conceptualised and implemented a “European Health Policy Model software” (D5.1) for an empirically-based dynamic micro simulation model. The Model contains: i) demographic model with exogenous births, accounting for net migration flows and trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality over time; ii) (chronic) disease models based on disease incidence, remission (when appropriate) and fatality as functions of individual characteristics and risk factors; iii) risk factor models based on longitudinal trajectories of exposure and behaviour over the life-course; iv) assessment and implementation of joint distributions and interactions between chronic diseases and between risk factors, and their effects on health, longevity and health care expenditures. WP5 also collected data to capture and project geo-spatially population’s exposure to environmental factors with significant health risks within the same population modelling framework for three European cities (Lisbon, Vienna, Tallin). The results are in the report on projecting the future social, health and economic burden of risk factors, disease and injury in the EU (D5.2). The micro-simulations setting are described in the paper on micro-simulation methodology, results and recommendation for future research (D5.3). WP6 conducted a review of best practices and policies targeting risk factors and at early detecting, treatment and rehabilitation of NCDs (D6.1). ISS analysed the evidence, impact and cost effectiveness of existing policies (D6.2). ISS, in conjunction with EPHA, organized three Policy Events to elicit ideas on policies and research needs from stakeholders. The findings were used for the compilation of a list of alternative policy options for policy makers according to different scenarios (D 6.3) and for the elaboration of Future Public Health Research Agenda (D6.4)
