The Final Conference will be arranged in Brussels. The aim is to concentrate on the policy conclusions generated and discuss their implications with top-level experts and stakeholders. Adjoining press conference will be organized to inform wider audiences on the conclusions.
A lunch time seminar in Brussels for EU level policy makers to discuss the starting points of the project and the views of the Commission on the next steps in the fiscal coordination
A lunch time seminar in Brussels for EU level policy makers to discuss the second set of results and their policy implications with EU level policy makers.
The first Forum will concentrate on taking stock on the situation prevailing at that time and knowledge accrued, but also some preliminary results are available at that time.
A lunch time seminar in Brussels for EU level policy makers to discuss the first results of the project and their policy implications with EU level policy makers.
The dataset covers various real-time fiscal variables, including fiscal sustainability indicators. The data will be made available via the project website.
The second Shareholder Forum is arranged in Warsaw in month 24. Among other things, the forum will discuss fiscal coordination from the point of view of countries aiming to join EMU.
This paper identifies fiscal spillovers in the EU countries empiricially, using the so called global vector autoregression (GVAR). Special attention will be paid to the question of whether or not spillovers are stronger within the EMU group than within the larger EU group due to tighter financial or trade links.
This paper models asset yields and labor productivity with time-series methods, and uses stochastic population projections with embedded forecast revisions to describe demographic uncertainties. It also reviews uncertainty assessment practices in current ageing expenditure projections and fiscal sustainability calculations of the EU Commission and other organizations.
This projects extends the NiGEM model to include examples of the estimated macroprudential relationships - which will allow us to illustrate the monetary-fiscal-macroprudential policy mix in selected European countries. This paper describes this extension.
This paper studies the implementation of fiscal rules across the EU. It draws on the experience of three annual cycles.
This paper uses the NIESR’s NIGEM model to investigate the effects of fiscal policy spillovers. It examines the macroeconomic spillovers in Europe following different type of fiscal shocks in one of the Euro Area members.
A theoretical paper on the various transmission mechanisms of budgetary policies across countries. The paper focuses on transmission mechanisms within a monetary union and during financial crises.
This paper studies the effects of a sharp reduction of the exogenous debt limit for some countries, which pushes them to deleverage, using DSGE model. It considers the welfare gains from central transfers to the countries that are hit by the deleveraging shock, financed by the union as a whole, as a test for government bailouts.
This reports brings together the lessons from the empirical and conceptual work drawing out their policy implications.
This paper uses a multi-country country overlapping generations model with intertemporal trade, imperfect labour markets and pay-as-you-go pension systems to study the spillover effects from population aging and pension reforms and the related need for policy coordination.
Data Management Plan detailing what data the project will generate, how it will be exploited and made accessible for verification and re-use, and how it will be curated and preserved.
This paper uses cross-border credit flows and bank level data (BANKSCOPE database) to investigate the role of credit and equity markets integration for risk sharing across countries.
This paper discusses the forms of fiscal risk sharing which have been advocated in the debate after the euro area crisis in order to define the contours and the content of a fiscal union for the EMU.
Despite methodological improvements, uncertainty over the output gap will undoubtedly remain large. This paper uses a simulation model to analyse how the uncertainty affects optimal policy, and how the current minimum requirements comply with our findings.
This paper studies the scope for a central EMU budget, taking into account the welfare effects of central government transfers following adverse shocks. It uses an open-economy discrete-time New Keynesian model with a continuum of countries.
This paper studies the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies both empirically and using NIGEM. It investigates what constellation of the monetary and fiscal policies are optimal from the perspective of different needs of countries comprising the single currency block. It takes into account various monetary and fiscal policy restrictions (zero-bound and debt levels).
Progress Report reflecting the state of play of the project at month 24 to allow the Commission to assess progress in regards to objectives
This paper presents quantitative estimates of fiscal multipliers in individual members of the Euro Area using the National Institute’s global econometric model NiGEM. It also examines whether international coordination of fiscal policies strengthens or weakens the size of multipliers in individual countries.
The paper performs an in-depth ex-post analysis of the appropriateness of the indicators included in the MIP Scoreboard. We ask whether this system would have been able to effectively identify the potential macroeconomic imbalances if it had been applied before the financial crisis. The ex-post evaluation will include in some cases recalculation of the MIP Scoreboard which covers external imbalances, internal imbalances and competitiveness. The statistical analysis will cover each of the 28 member states.
A paper describing in-depth case studies of the experience of fiscal coordination in selected countries. These case studies will make use of interviews with stakeholders as well as of data on the evolution of fiscal policy.
This paper explores the potential role of macroprudential policies. It is based on an extensive analysis of the literature and empirical panel estimates of the relationships between selected instruments of macroprudential policy and financial stability and real economy variables.
This paper uses a general equilibrium overlapping-generations model to study fiscal strategies where some tax of expenditure items are conditioned on observed and forecasted indebtedness and other fiscal variables. Specifically, we study a fiscal strategy for Finland that is explicitly based on the Medium-Term Objective defined in the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact.
This paper studies the potential stabilizing effects of an EU central budget using a multi-country overlapping generations (OLG) model. For comparison, we assume that the budget is used for transfers to government of countries hit by the largest shocks, or for transfers to all countries but in proportion to output per capita, or for transfers to all countries in proportion of public finance deficits.
This paper examines options for how we could modify Structural Funds and similar EU financial resources to make them better suited to medium-term ex post shock mitigation. These instruments are currently regulated and managed at the EU level in a way that is unrelated to fiscal coordination and disregarding the potential for emergency situations.
In order to understand the specific problems of macroeconomic conditions within the EMU, this paper examine the evolution of budgetary, monetary and financial performance indicators and provides a comparative analysis of the budgetary-monetary-financial policy mix in major OECD countries.
This paper describes a simulation model that solves how much fiscal effort it takes to return legislative compliance under different assumptions about the initial state of the economy and the expected future economic development. The paper also uses the model to make comparisons between current requirements and historical examples of consolidations.
This report highlights and explains the key policy conclusions from all FIRSTRUN research WPs. It includes an executive summary that briefly summarizes the key policy conclusions.
This paper uses an agency framework to consider the enforcement of desired fiscal policy as a dynamic game between Member States’ governments and EU authorities. Using the model, we retrospectively analyse the efficiency of the incentive schemes before and after the reforms in 2011.
A review paper which elaborates the concepts of the expenditory state/deep variable and relates them to the progress of legitimacy and accountability proposals as part of the development of genuine economic and monetary union
This paper compares alternative proposals for a central unemployment insurance systems. It empirically tests the relationship between the functioning and the size of alternative instruments and assesses their impact on output volatility and losses.
This briefing paper focuses on the lessons from the empirical and conceptual work.
This paper uses a multi-country OLG model to assess the spillover effects of national fiscal reforms. The paper also considers the potential need for policy coordination.
This paper uses the extended NiGEM model to illustrate the monetary-fiscal-macroprudential policy mix in selected European countries.
A comparative paper on how fiscal rules are being interpreted in the Member States and how these interpretations affect the scope for effective fiscal policy coordination
A concise briefing paper, providing a readable summary for non-specialist readers, of a brainstorming workshop, drawing on the results in D6.2
A critical literature review of the various economic and political rationales for fiscal policy coordination. The literature review includes a classification of different type of fiscal spillovers and different forms of fiscal coordination.
This paper examines the ways to ensure an appropriate balance of budgetary and monetary policy within and outside the EMU. It draws on previous theoretical and quantitative studies.
Using the new dataset (deliverable 2.1), this sub-task aims to empirically assess, through panel data analysis, whether and how the degree of uncertainty in forecasts is related to the business cycle and, in particular, if forecasts tend to be less reliable around turning points of the cycle, which is when accuracy would be most relevant.
Following the global financial crisis, in the face of near zero interest rates, central banks turned to unconventional monetary policies and significantly expanded the size of their balance sheets. This paper studies the effects of such policies on interest rate differentials in Europe using a panel model approach.
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Author(s): John Bachtler, Iain Begg
Published in: Papers in Regional Science, Issue 97/1, 2018, Page(s) 151-170, ISSN 1056-8190
Author(s): Iain Begg
Published in: National Institute Economic Review, Issue 239/1, 2017, Page(s) R3-R13, ISSN 0027-9501
Author(s): Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji
Published in: Open Economies Review, Issue 28/3, 2017, Page(s) 383-412, ISSN 0923-7992
Author(s): Domonkos Tomáš, Ostrihoň Filip, Šikulová Ivana, Širaňová Mária
Published in: National Institute Economic Review, Issue 239/1, 2017, Page(s) R32-R52, ISSN 0027-9501
Author(s): Tero Kuusi
Published in: National Institute Economic Review, Issue 239/1, 2017, Page(s) R14-R31, ISSN 0027-9501
Author(s): Oriol Carreras, E. Philip Davis, Rebecca Piggott
Published in: Journal of Financial Stability, 2018, ISSN 1572-3089
Author(s): Simon Kirby
Published in: National Institute Economic Review, Issue 239/1, 2017, Page(s) R1-R2, ISSN 0027-9501
Author(s): Cinzia Alcidi, Gilles Thirion
Published in: Intereconomics, Issue 52/3, 2017, Page(s) 137-142, ISSN 0020-5346
Author(s): Iain Begg, Annette Bongardt, Kalypso Nicolaïdis, Francisco Torres
Published in: Journal of European Integration, Issue 37/7, 2015, Page(s) 803-816, ISSN 0703-6337