Periodic Reporting for period 2 - Solar Bankability (Improving the Financeability and Attractiveness of Sustainable Energy Investments in Photovolatics: Quantifying and Managing the Technical Risk for Current and New Business Models)
Reporting period: 2016-03-01 to 2017-02-28
1. To develop, document and establish practices for evaluating and mitigating the technical risks associated with investments in photovoltaics over the project life cycle, i.e. during development, operation and decommissioning.
2. To develop, document and establish practices for valuing such risks when modelling the costs of a PV investment as investors do when evaluating the life cycle costs of such projects.
3. To evaluate how these risks affect the electricity production and the expected return on investment in different business models.
4. To enable the key actors, and particularly the financial market actors, to widely adopt the project results as best practices for the mitigation of risk of sustainable energy investments with current and new business models.
The benchmarking and gap analysis was used to identify the parameters in the PV LCOE which are influenced by the technical risks in the PV project lifecycle as identified in the Risk Matrix. The results were used to develop and establish ways to evaluate the technical risks when modelling the PV LCOE. A snapshot of the business models in representative national PV markets in EU was given and served to understand the current climate of existing business models used for PV investment and the corresponding features and boundary conditions. The results were used to select the appropriate cases in the simulation of different business models where the impacts of technical risks on the electricity production and expected return on investment were evaluated, The country business model snapshots are presented in the Deliverable D4.1 and available on the Solar Bankability project website accessible by the public.
Once the technical risks have been identified, the focus moved to the identification of mitigation measures divided into preventive and corrective mitigation measures. Their impact was assessed in terms of reduction of uncertainty in yield assessment and in the CPN (Joint Report 1.2/2.2) and in the LCOE (Report 3.2).
The CPN methodology was linked to cash flow modelling with the creation of technical risks scenarios on 4 different business models (residential with and without storage, utility scale with central and string inverters) and the results were collected in Report 4.2.
Finally, all the key findings and main outcomes were framed in a risk framework divided into 4 phases: risk identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk controlling (Report 5.8). The main results of the projects can thus be summarised as:
- Risk identification (Gap analysis and Risk matrix for the common nomenclature of failures with tool available on the website)
- Risk Assessment (Scenarios in uncertainty calculation of yield assessment and impact on P90/P50 ratio, CPN methodology for the calculation of the economic impact of technical risks, cash flow modelling with the inclusion of technical risk scenarios, impact of technical risks on LCOE, LCOE tool available on the website)
- Risk Management (Definition of mitigation measures divided into preventive and corrective and impact on uncertainty in yield assessment and on CPN, impact of mitigation measures on LCOE to evaluate the best mitigation strategy)
· Over the two-year project period, the Solar Bankability website was visited by more than 5400 users.
· Report downloads: Deliverable D1.1/D2.1 has been downloaded 571 times, Deliverable D1.2/D2.2 233 times, Deliverable 3.1 180 times, Deliverable 3.2 126 times, Deliverable 4.1 has been downloaded 233 times, Deliverable 4.2 273 times, and Deliverable 5.8 126 times. The total number of downloads is thus well above 1500.
The primary energy substituted in 2016 thanks to the impact of Solar Bankability amounts to 5843 GWh with investments triggered around 13.7 m€.