Periodic Reporting for period 4 - EXPOVIBE (Exposure to Political Violence and Individual Behavior)
Reporting period: 2021-10-01 to 2023-03-31
Armed conflicts are humanitarian disasters that kill and injure millions of people, and leave many more destitute. And unfortunately, these immediate sufferings are just the tip of the iceberg of the true human costs of armed conflicts.Exposure to such gruesome violence either as witnesses, victims or perpetrators is to affect and scar people in serious ways, and these effects are likely to manifest themselves in different ways in interpersonal relations, and in economic and political life even long after the conflict is over. The development of a thorough understanding of these long-term impacts and the mechanisms they have behind is a precondition for devising effective preventive and counteractive policies. Nevertheless, identifying the causal impacts of armed conflict exposure is an empirical challenge, and we are still far from a complete understanding of the true extent of the damages armed conflicts inflict upon host societies. EXPOVIBE contributes to that crucial understanding in very significant and important ways by building on a population-level natural experiment created by the Turkish military institutions and the long running ethnic conflict in the country. As part of the project two large-n survey studies have been conducted in western Turkey. The first study surveyed some 6384 married Turkish women between the ages 25 and 50, and focused on intimate partner violence. The second study surveyed 5024 adult Turkish men to study the association between exposure to political violence and social, economic and political behavior.
Analyzing the data collected via these surveys, EXPOVIBE identifies the causal effect of armed conflict exposure for the average adult male. The study design also takes advantage of the geographical distribution of the conflict to identify clean treatment and control groups, and deciphers the underlying mechanisms that carry the effects. Finally, the richness of the collected data allows the exploration of effects over an unprecedentedly rich set of outcomes.
As prominent examples of these outcomes, findings indicate adverse effects on IPV perpetration from husband to wife. Moreover, contrary to the arguments that war fosters pro-sociality, EXPOVIBE offers compelling evidence that conflict exposure fosters parochialism, measured by opposition to peaceful means of conflict resolution, animosity towards minorities, and adherence to right-wing ideology, with effects likely flowing through social learning, grievances, and the normalization of violence.
The effects that the project has so far identified are important in several ways: First, they concern the social, economic, and political life of societies. Second, they are long term. It is striking to find that individuals continue to exhibit the effects even after decades since their armed conflict experiences. Third, effects are negative. Contrary to arguments in the literature about potential positive effects engendered by post-traumatic growth, EXPOVIBE findings indicate armed conflict exposure to lead to undesirable social, economic, and political outcomes like domestic violence, parochialism, militarism, aggression, normalization of violence in everyday life, and psychological distress.
Analyzing the data collected via these surveys, EXPOVIBE identifies the causal effect of armed conflict exposure for the average adult male. The study design also takes advantage of the geographical distribution of the conflict to identify clean treatment and control groups, and deciphers the underlying mechanisms that carry the effects. Finally, the richness of the collected data allows the exploration of effects over an unprecedentedly rich set of outcomes.
As prominent examples of these outcomes, findings indicate adverse effects on IPV perpetration from husband to wife. Moreover, contrary to the arguments that war fosters pro-sociality, EXPOVIBE offers compelling evidence that conflict exposure fosters parochialism, measured by opposition to peaceful means of conflict resolution, animosity towards minorities, and adherence to right-wing ideology, with effects likely flowing through social learning, grievances, and the normalization of violence.
The effects that the project has so far identified are important in several ways: First, they concern the social, economic, and political life of societies. Second, they are long term. It is striking to find that individuals continue to exhibit the effects even after decades since their armed conflict experiences. Third, effects are negative. Contrary to arguments in the literature about potential positive effects engendered by post-traumatic growth, EXPOVIBE findings indicate armed conflict exposure to lead to undesirable social, economic, and political outcomes like domestic violence, parochialism, militarism, aggression, normalization of violence in everyday life, and psychological distress.
EXPOVIBE involved the design, implementation, and analysis of two large-N field surveys in western Turkey. The first survey targeted married women to study their intimate partner violence experiences. 6384 adult female participants between the ages 25 and 50 were interviewed at their residential addresses in 29 provinces in western Turkey. The field work was conducted in January-April 2019.
The second study targeted adult males to study their socioeconomic and political attitudes and behaviors. 5024 adult male participants, who completed their military service between 1984 and 2011, were interviewed at their residential addresses. Field work was conducted in June-October 2019.
With the data at hand, a series of project outputs have started to take shape in the last two years of the project.
A manuscript titled “Female Income and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Representative Survey in Turkey” is now forthcoming in the Journal of International Development. Two manuscripts titled “Does War Foster Cooperation or Parochialism? Evidence from a Natural Experiment among Turkish Conscripts”, and “Subjecting the ‘Average Joe’ to War Theatre Triggers Intimate Partner Violence”, respectively, were first released as National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working papers, then were submitted to academic journals for publication. The former is currently under review at the American Economic Review, and the latter is under review at Econometrica. Four other manuscripts “The Impact of Exposure to Armed Conflict on Risk and Ambiguity Attitudes”, “The Impact of Exposure to Armed Conflict on Altruistic Preferences”, “Armed Conflict Exposure and Trust: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Turkey”, and “Exposure to Armed Conflict and Depression Amongst Military Conscripts in Turkey: An Experimental Study” are near completion and will be submitted for publication in peer reviewed scientific journals in 2023.
Three dissemination workshops were organized and conducted. The first workshop, titled "Exposure to Political Violence and Economic Behaviour" was hosted online on April 5-6, 2021, by the University of Warwick, with the participation of a group of highly esteemed conflict scholars.
The second dissemination workshop titled "Exposure to Armed Conflict and Private Economic Activity" took place on February 17, 2022, and was hosted online by the University of Warwick.
Finally, the third dissemination workshop was organized and hosted by the University of Warwick with the participation of the Households in Conflict Network. The two-day workshop was a great success with the participation of more than 50 conflict scholars from various scientific disciplines.
Project findings and outputs were also presented at a group of prestigious international workshops and conferences.
The second study targeted adult males to study their socioeconomic and political attitudes and behaviors. 5024 adult male participants, who completed their military service between 1984 and 2011, were interviewed at their residential addresses. Field work was conducted in June-October 2019.
With the data at hand, a series of project outputs have started to take shape in the last two years of the project.
A manuscript titled “Female Income and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Representative Survey in Turkey” is now forthcoming in the Journal of International Development. Two manuscripts titled “Does War Foster Cooperation or Parochialism? Evidence from a Natural Experiment among Turkish Conscripts”, and “Subjecting the ‘Average Joe’ to War Theatre Triggers Intimate Partner Violence”, respectively, were first released as National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working papers, then were submitted to academic journals for publication. The former is currently under review at the American Economic Review, and the latter is under review at Econometrica. Four other manuscripts “The Impact of Exposure to Armed Conflict on Risk and Ambiguity Attitudes”, “The Impact of Exposure to Armed Conflict on Altruistic Preferences”, “Armed Conflict Exposure and Trust: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Turkey”, and “Exposure to Armed Conflict and Depression Amongst Military Conscripts in Turkey: An Experimental Study” are near completion and will be submitted for publication in peer reviewed scientific journals in 2023.
Three dissemination workshops were organized and conducted. The first workshop, titled "Exposure to Political Violence and Economic Behaviour" was hosted online on April 5-6, 2021, by the University of Warwick, with the participation of a group of highly esteemed conflict scholars.
The second dissemination workshop titled "Exposure to Armed Conflict and Private Economic Activity" took place on February 17, 2022, and was hosted online by the University of Warwick.
Finally, the third dissemination workshop was organized and hosted by the University of Warwick with the participation of the Households in Conflict Network. The two-day workshop was a great success with the participation of more than 50 conflict scholars from various scientific disciplines.
Project findings and outputs were also presented at a group of prestigious international workshops and conferences.
Identifying the causal impacts of armed conflict exposure is an empirical challenge. First, the endemic endogeneity between exposure and outcomes prevents causal interpretations of findings. Second, in most existing studies, results only hold among a specific sub-population; hence, the generalizability of findings remains limited, if not impossible. Third, underlying mechanisms remain obscure mainly due to the confounding macro-environmental effects of armed conflicts as well as the lack of adequately detailed and rich data that cleanly identifies and measures the treatment, potential mediators, and relevant outcomes.
EXPOVIBE addresses these limitations and offers the most potent and comprehensive empirical framework to study the implications of armed conflict exposure on the subsequent outcomes of the average male randomly picked from the population.
Analyzing data collected via two large-N surveys that build on a population-level natural experiment created by the Turkish military institutions and then long running civil conflict in the southeast of the country, EXPOVIBE identifies the causal effect of armed conflict exposure for the average young adult male over an unprecedentedly rich set of outcomes, and deciphers the underlying mechanisms that carry the effects.
EXPOVIBE addresses these limitations and offers the most potent and comprehensive empirical framework to study the implications of armed conflict exposure on the subsequent outcomes of the average male randomly picked from the population.
Analyzing data collected via two large-N surveys that build on a population-level natural experiment created by the Turkish military institutions and then long running civil conflict in the southeast of the country, EXPOVIBE identifies the causal effect of armed conflict exposure for the average young adult male over an unprecedentedly rich set of outcomes, and deciphers the underlying mechanisms that carry the effects.