Towards middle-range theories of the co-evolutionary dynamics of multi-level social-ecological systems

Project Information

MUSES

Grant agreement ID: 682472

DOI

10.3030/682472

Project closed

EC signature date 10 October 2016

Start date 1 February 2017

End date 31 January 2023

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 969 599,00

EU contribution

€ 1 969 599,00

Coordinated by

STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET
Sweden

Periodic Reporting for period 4 - MUSES (Towards middle-range theories of the co-evolutionary dynamics of multi-level social-ecological systems)

Reporting period: 2021-08-01 to 2023-01-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

In the last two decades, a rich empirical knowledge base has accumulated on the complex interactions of actors, societies and ecosystems that shape the dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), however, theoretical developments have lagged behind. A better understanding of how complex social-ecological interdependencies play out over time in different contexts can help find entry points for governance and identify ways to navigate SES onto more sustainable trajectories. In view of these gaps and needs, the MuSES project aimed to 1) assess the potential of process-relational perspectives to account for the continuously changing nature of SES and overcome the human-nature dichotomy. A shift towards a process perspective focuses attention on processes and relations, not objects, as the fundamental elements that shape the emergence of SES; 2) analyse the role of cross-scale interactions for SES's responses to change. We focused on food production systems, particularly small-scale fisheries and small-holder agriculture, and the role of relations between producers and traders as critical links connecting biophysical and social dynamics across scales. Through combining empirical research with dynamic modelling we identified how these relationships affect outcomes in different context; 3) synthesize insights from our studies, theoretical modelling and the literature to develop middle-range theories of SES change. The project contributes novel conceptualizations, frameworks and methodologies for the analysis of the dynamics of SES that focus on social-ecological interactions or relations as key explanatory factors and generalize through a process of link rich-contextual knowledge with modelling. Our research on cross-scale dynamics has highlighted the interplay of multiple social and ecological processes, such as the embeddedness of trading in social relations or the importance of social-ecological interactions for agricultural innovation, that influence SES responses to change. Based on these insights we propose a middle-range theory of small-scale production systems' responses to environmental or institutional change. The project also contributes a reflection on the types of theories and modes of theorizing that fit the complex and contested problem contexts in sustainability science, proposing novel modes of theorizing at the interface of science and society. Both insights are important contributions to governance for sustainability.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The work performed in the first half of the project included an analysis of process-relational thinking and its application to SES. We identified the concepts of 'intra-action' and 'assemblage' as useful for overcoming the human-nature dichotomy and understanding SES as emergent from relations which can be of social or ecological nature. We have written five papers to present a process perspective to the SES community and demonstrate why and how it may help overcome some of the outstanding challenges of sustainability research, namely integrating the social and ecological, addressing complexity and scale, combining different knowledge systems and acknowledging that the researcher is part of the system. Furthermore, we have developed a toolkit to help interdisciplinary teams to clarify differences in ontologies and epistemologies which may create obstacles for collaboration.

We developed a mathematical modelling framework for multi-level modeling of SES and applied it to a common pool resource use context. Results show that even weak social connectivity between communities can significantly increase long-time cooperativity and thus resource use sustainability. Modelling of cross-scale poverty traps showed that the location of the trapping mechanism (at one scale, at both or in the cross-scale interactions) and its properties influence how the effects spread throughout the system and how the trap can be broken. Our work on small-scale marine and agricultural food systems revealed the importance of trading as a cross-scale connectivity for responses of these systems to environmental or institutional variability. It also showed that small-scale trading is commonly embedded in other social relations that together influence how a fishery or actors in an agricultural supply chain can respond to changes. Finally, our work on agricultural innovation highlighted the social-ecological nature of innovation dynamics and that food security and income inequality patterns arise because of structural mechanisms through which innovations take place. We have published 11 papers on our cross-scale work.

Finally, we have worked on the conceptual and methodological foundations for developing middle-range theories of change in SES and published i) a framework for studying the emergence of SES phenomena from social-ecological interactions, ii) a methodology that combines case-based research with agent-based modeling, and iii) different modes of theorizing from the inside of the system.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The project to date has advanced the field of SES research by providing an analytical framework and a methodology to theorize about the dynamics of SES that account for their complex, intertwined and continuously changing nature. We have advanced conceptual and methodological integration across disciplines and developed a tool to facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration.
We have analysed the ability of a different ontology, namely a process-relational one, to serve as a worldview that is more suited to the complex adaptive nature of SES and can help bridge the dichotomy between social and ecological that still underlies many conceptual frameworks, theories and methods.
Methodologically we are advancing agent-based modelling of social-ecological systems (as e.g. human and non-human agents in an action situation) as a method for integrative analysis of SES as complex adaptive systems. With one of the PhD students we are exploring the use of social-ecological networks in combination with agent-based modelling to capture structural and dynamic aspects of intertwinedness. We have developed models that take relevant real-world complexity regarding the behaviour of actors, the social structures they are embedded in and the non-linear dynamics of ecosystems into account.
We have synthesized the insights of our studies on marine and agricultural food systems and out theoretical work into a novel understanding of cross-scale interactions as capacities for responding to environmental change that builds on assemblages and a re-conceptualization of context. These are first steps towards a middle-range theory of small-scale food systems' responses to change.

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