Models and decision SUpport tools for integrated FOrest policy development under global change and associated Risk and UNcertainty

Project Information

SuFoRun

Grant agreement ID: 691149

DOI

10.3030/691149

Project closed

EC signature date 29 October 2015

Start date 1 February 2016

End date 31 January 2020

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Total cost

€ 1 885 500,00

EU contribution

€ 1 885 500,00

Coordinated by

CONSORCI CENTRE DE CIENCIA I TECNOLOGIA FORESTAL DE CATALUNYA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - SuFoRun (Models and decision SUpport tools for integrated FOrest policy development under global change and associated Risk and UNcertainty)

Reporting period: 2018-02-01 to 2020-01-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Forest policy and decision makers are challenged by the need to balance the increasing demand for forest-based services (e.g. recreation, protection, conservation) and wood-based products (e.g. timber, fuelwood) while addressing the impacts of natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires, droughts) on potential supply. Classical forestry production approaches to silviculture and regulation are inadequate to address the complexity of current forest management planning and policy-making processes. New models, methods and decision systems are needed that may effectively integrate currently fragmented multidisciplinary knowledge.

The European and the American experiences with the development/application of models and tools to support forest management and develop innovative forest policies provide a solid base for continuous improvement of its efficiency and effectiveness in a context of global change (e.g. changes in forest policies, changes in forest owner structures, changes in climatic conditions). Nevertheless, the fragmentation of research in areas such as forest modelling, forest management methods, social science, policy making and risk and uncertainty and decision support systems suggests networking and research needs to realize their interdisciplinary integration potential.

The SuFoRun consortium was built to strengthen research collaboration through active networking and staff exchange between 6 European organizations from Portugal, Germany, Finland, Spain and Sweden, and 7 American organizations from Chile, Costa Rica, Brazil and USA that are leaders in these fields. This project builds from the multidisciplinary expertise (ranging from environmental science, forest inventory and modeling, management, socio-economic analysis, operations research up to software engineering) in these organizations to develop innovative interdisciplinary approaches to address research and innovation areas that have been identified as key to unlocking the potential of the forest-based sector and ensuring its future competitiveness by the Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda 2020 of the Forest-based sector Technology Platform.

During four years, a total of 97 researchers have participated in the program with a total of 118 secondments and 381 man-months, including experienced and early stage researchers. 255 of them corresponded to secondments from EU institutions to America, while 127 PMs corresponded to secondments in the inverse direction. The project has contributed to a consistent worldwide quality reference for the development of tools that can be used by public administrators, forest owners and industry for enhanced integration of adaptive strategies in forest management planning as well as in policy analysis in a context of global change.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The project has contributed to major scientific achievements. These include 57 scientific peer-reviewed publications which are published (50), submitted (5) or under preparation (2), the organization of 6 international seminars/workshops (three of them organized in parallel to the annual project coordination meetings, the organization of two courses, the participation in scientific conferences and workshops and the participation in the scientific panel of 4 international conferences (e.g. SSAFR2017, IUFRO annual meeting 2017, Risk Analysis IUFRO Conference 2018 and SSAFR2019).

The project was divided in three scientific work packages, the first devoted to the study of Ecosystem dynamics and disturbance (biotic and abiotic) regimes (WP2). We have developed projection models to be included in simulators in the different institutions. Further, several models have been developed that allow predicting fire behavior and thus enabling to propose management alternatives to reduce fire risk. Related to climate change impact, work has been done for calibrating process-based models (e.g. YieldSafe and 3PG) for Chilean and Costa Rica conditions as well as developing a new process-based model for Mediterranean conditions. Since global change affects also the land use distributions and the habitats for species, different secondments investigated changes in species distribution (land use changes) and the regeneration success of species under different climates.

The second scientific work package is Ecosystem services supply, risk assessment and trade-off analysis (WP3). This work package is more related to forest management and planning. In this context, different researchers have developed innovative methodologies to address multi-objective planning problems. This includes the combination of participatory workshops and multiple criteria decision methods (MCDMs) to support the development and negotiation of targets for the supply of ecosystem services and help design the management plan needed to meet those targets. These studies are important to help decision makers when multiple decision makers and multiple objectives are considered.

Regarding climate change impacts and adaptive management, innovative methods to account for climate change in forest planning taking into account multiple objectives (using MCA methods) have been published. This involved the use of process-based models to project growth under different climate scenarios and different management options.

The last work package, Intelligent ecosystem management decision support systems DSSs (WP4), deals with the development of intelligent DSSs. First, a review of DSSs used in Europe provided more information about DSSs use and needs for further development. Then, a DSS to project tree growth for different species growing in Catalonia under climatic changing conditions has been created. This DSS includes a gap model (SORTIE), to take into account the impact of climate change. Another work that has been developed is the development the integration of the process-based model YieldSafe into a DSS which provides an innovative tool to predict growth and production of agroforestry systems for different species and taking into account climate change impacts. Work has been done with Doctor Keith Reynolds (USDA-) to adapt EMDS (Reynolds et al., 2003) to be used under Spanish and Portuguese conditions. In addition, Heureka (a Swedish DSS) has been also updated.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Computer-based decision support systems (DSS) are means of transfer of technology and knowledge of structure, function and processes of forest ecosystems to enhance forest management planning and policy analysis. SuFoRun has advanced in the integration of forest ecosystems multidisciplinary knowledge in intelligent DSSs which are an innovative environment for ecosystem based forest management planning and forestry policy analysis. Therefore, the SuFoRUn network has implemented and generated knowledge about models (e.g Growth and yield models), methods (e.g. stochastic optimization methods) and ICT tools (e.g DSSs) to: a) facilitate decision-making processes of forest managers so that plans may optimize the supply of economic goods, while sustaining the ecological base in terms of biodiversity, carbon sequestration, soil and water quality and addressing concerns regarding the wellbeing of people and society and b) facilitate policy analysis processes that may reflect the aspirations and the interests of a wide range of forest stakeholders as well as society’s increasing awareness of the competition for resources between forest ecological and economic functions in a context of global change.

Presentation During the Risk Analysis Conference co-organized by SuFoRun

Coordinators/Deputy coordinators of SuFoRun participating in the final conference.